Fantasy Aces Value Plays: Week 3
We lost Danny Woodhead last week, but Week 2 was a great one for Fantasy Aces value nonetheless. Here’s to hoping we can keep it rolling! … You can find my Week 3 Fantasy Aces value plays below…
Marcus Mariota vs. Raiders, $6,250
Mariota is in a tremendous spot this weekend against an Oakland defense that has bled fantasy points so far to opposing quarterbacks. Through two weeks, we have seen the Raiders allow 819 passing yards and seven touchdowns. Especially with the competence of their offense (63 points in two weeks), Oakland stands to get into shootouts almost weekly. Also working in Mariota’s favor is that he is the favorite in this game. The sample sizes are small on him since he is yet to play 16 games in the NFL, but Mariota averages about 43 total yards and .73 touchdowns more in games he is favored. Priced as QB19 this week, you really can’t go wrong with the former Duck.
Dak Prescott vs. Bears, $5,700
Prescott has struggled to put the ball in the end zone (just one touchdown in two games), but he has completed 63 percent of his passes for 519 yards in the early stages of the season. Kyle Fuller has still not played yet this season for Chicago, and their secondary is pretty poor to begin with, having finished 23rd in Football Outsiders pass DVOA rankings in 2015. The touchdowns for Prescott should come soon enough, and when they do, he will smash his QB26 price tag.
Tevin Coleman at Saints, $4,600
Coleman has received just five less touches than teammate Devonta Freeman so far this season, but he is priced as the RB31 while Freeman sits at RB10. Atlanta is playing in the highest total game of the week (53.5 points) against the Saints, and are currently three point underdogs. Common perception would be that this style of game favors Freeman, who caught 73 passes last season. However, Coleman has twice as many targets and six times as many receiving yards as 2015’s RB1. He is showing his explosiveness this season, and should be rewarded with a spot in your lineups.
T.J. Yeldon vs. Baltimore, $4,400
This is probably the most egregious price of the week by Fantasy Aces, and you need to take advantage of it this week. Yeldon has served as the primary runner for the Jaguars with Chris Ivory in the hospital well into Week 2 preparation. Gus Bradley stated last week it would be tough for Ivory to play in Week 3 against Baltimore, and if he does indeed sit, that puts Yeldon in a tremendous spot yet again.
The Ravens have allowed 266 total yards and two touchdowns to opposing running backs through two weeks, which isn’t terrible, but Yeldon has monopolized the snaps in the Jacksonville backfield, and has amassed 12 receptions in two games. Baltimore has allowed 10 catches to running backs in two games, so we can expect Yeldon to continue to be featured in the passing game. He’s the RB41 this week in pricing.
Phillip Dorsett vs. Chargers, $4,300
The Colts are still waiting for Donte Moncrief’s MRI results after he left Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury. It’s possible he doesn’t play, which would boost Dorsett’s value in this high-scoring contest with the Chargers. Vegas currently has the game pegged at a 52-point total, which is exactly what we want for our wide receiver plays. Dorsett led the Colts in receiving in Week 1 against Detroit, and is averaging a stupid 24.8 yards per reception in the early going of the season. There’s also little chance he’ll be shadowed by Jason Verrett, who shut down Allen Robinson in Week 2.
Tajae Sharpe vs. Raiders, $4,200
Sharpe leads the Titans in targets, but you wouldn’t know that from his WR56 price tag on Aces. Brandin Cooks and Julio Jones combined for 11 receptions, 249 yards, and three touchdowns against Oakland. Sharpe certainly isn’t on their levels just yet, it is encouraging to see the Raiders have not been able to slow down the opposing teams’ WR1. A line similar to his 7/76 in Week 1, except this time with a touchdown, feels like a quality outcome in this spot. And it will come at a bargain price.
Dwayne Allen vs. Chargers, $3,800
If some is good, then more must be better right? Allen is priced as the TE31 this week, despite being tied for third on the Colts in targets and having scored a touchdown in Week One against Detroit. There is no better way to find cheap tight end production than to take one playing in a high total game, and as I mentioned before, this one fits that bill. San Diego was also 31st in DVOA against tight ends in 2015.
Vance McDonald at Seahawks, $3,650
Here is a list of wide receivers McDonald currently has more fantasy points than through two weeks:
McDonald has scored touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, has scored more than all of the above players, yet comes in as the TE33 in pricing this weekend. He isn’t as strong a play as Allen, but I definitely expect him to beat his price this week.
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