Fantasy Aces Value Plays: Week 5
We’re four weeks into the NFL season and hopefully you’re enjoying your Fantasy Aces experience.It’s 2QB fantasy football so what’s not to love, right? … You know what else is easy to love? Value. Let’s find some for Week 5…
Tom Brady at Browns, $7,400
Wait, what? Isn’t Brady priced as the QB3 this week, Anthony? Well, yes, yes he is. The thing is:
- He should be priced first.
- It’s my column.
- I really want to talk about Tom Freaking Brady.
Seriously though, Brady is coming back from suspension with what looks like a hand-picked spot by Roger Goodell to immediately have him smash, forcing us all to forget we were even mad in the first place Brady was suspended for something that probably never happened two years ago.
The Browns have allowed an average of 270.5 yards and 2.5 touchdowns to a rookie, an overrated Super Bowl champ, and two guys who struggle to lace up their cleats properly on game day. Angry Tom is going to show no mercy in this spot, and he is priced 200 dollars less than Aaron Rodgers. Just lock him in and forget about it.
Brian Hoyer at Colts, $5,900
In the Colts’ two homes games (we’re not counting the London game), they have allowed an average of 333 passing yards to Matthew Stafford and Philip Rivers. This is partially due to their offense playing better at Lucas Oil Stadium and partially due to their defense being the football version of Brad Wesley in the final scenes of Road House.
A game overseas and a matchup with the run-heavy Broncos has disguised just how awful this pass defense is, as evidenced by their 29th-place ranking in Football Outsiders pass DVOA rankings entering Week 4.
Hoyer has impressed so far as the signal caller of the Bears, going over 300 yards in both of his starts this season (and scoring 21.55 and 22.80 Fantasy Aces points in each game). He should post similar numbers this week at an outrageously cheap price.
Jerick McKinnon vs. Texans, $4,500
McKinnon is the SPARQ running back the Vikings need. While the Texans are still a very good defense without J.J. Watt, it’s difficult to suggest they are quite as potent without him. To that point, DeMarco Murray went for 119 total yards and two touchdowns against Houston in their first game without the All-Pro defensive end. McKinnon has the snaps and touches edge in the Viking backfield, and Minnesota also boasts one of the best defenses in football. As the RB29 in price, you simply cannot go wrong.
Duke Johnson vs. Patriots, $4,300
Johnson’s usage has increased over the last two weeks, as he has exceeded nine rush attempts and five receptions against both Washington and Miami. The Patriots should blow the doors right off of Cleveland (they are 10.5-point favorites), and that should mean even more usage for Johnson, particularly in the passing game. Isaiah Crowell has been fantastic in 2016, but has only six receptions in four games. The Patriots have allowed 27 running back receptions in four games. Johnson is fantastic value this week for his measly $4,300 salary.
Quincy Enunwa at Steelers, $4,300
Enunwa has acquired 21 percent of the targets in New York, but has only played one game without Eric Decker. Pittsburgh has allowed at least 287 yards passing every week of the season, and the Jets are sixth in Red Zone pass attempts heading into Monday night. The problem is they have thrown just four touchdowns and three interceptions in that area of the field. That should correct itself some for New York. With Decker expected to miss another week, Enunwa should capitalize at a cheap price.
Brice Butler vs. Bengals, $3,500
With Dez Bryant out due to a fractured knee, Butler stepped in and made an immediate impact for the Cowboys. He saw nine targets (28 percent) and also caught a touchdown. This matchup with the Bengals should be competitive, with a spread currently ranging from +1 to -1, and Cincinnati has been much more susceptible to the pass than the run so far this season (DVOA ranks of 19 and 9 respectively entering Week 4). Butler is inexpensive volume that will allow you to fit in studs throughout the rest of your lineup.
Martellus Bennett at Browns, $4,150
This seems like a major pricing error on Bennett, who is the TE16 on Fantasy Aces, but is priced third and eighth on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. He has already gone over 100 yards twice without Brady in the fold, and while Rob Gronkowski is sure to be more active going forward, the Patriots should also utilize a lot of two tight end sets. Cleveland just allowed two touchdowns to Jordan Reed and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Bennett snag at least one this weekend. He is a fantastic play at this price.
Clive Walford vs. Chargers, $3,800
San Diego was 24th in DVOA against the tight end entering Week 4, and has allowed at least 65 yards or a touchdown to three players at the position so far this season. Oakland is currently a four-point favorite in a game with a 50-point total, the highest on the week. Walford’s usage has been erratic, but he does have a game with 50 yards and a touchdown on his resume so far this season. At this price, we’re just looking for a potential touchdown, and Walford can absolutely provide that in a game with so many projected points.
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