Fantasy Aces Value Plays: Week 6
After five weeks of football it seems as though prices are finally starting to adjust on Fantasy Aces and other NFL DFS sites. It should get more and more difficult to find great values to get into your lineup every week, which is a tremendous edge for the sharp player. Let’s see who we have for Week 6…
Tyrod Taylor vs. 49ers, $6,100
Taylor is perhaps the most perfect example of a quarterback whose play isn’t always the prettiest, but manages to yield fantasy points. He has managed at least 17 points on Fantasy Aces each of the last four weeks, despite going over 125 yards passing just twice. Taylor’s ability to run the football is a tremendous asset each week, and he is averaging 33.6 rush yards per game on the year.
The 49ers are the fastest team in pro football according to Football Outsiders, which means more plays this week for the athletic signal caller. Buffalo is also 7.-point home favorite.
Derek Anderson at Saints, $5,500
Blaine Gabbert at Bills, $5,000
Colin Kaepernick at Bills, $4,800
I’m giving you a trifecta of signal callers here since it is early in the week and we aren’t sure about the status Cam Newton or who will start for San Francisco. If Newton still cannot go after suffering a concussion in Week 4, Anderson is almost a must play as the QB27 in price playing in the Coors Field of the NFL. The Saints have allowed 32.5 points per game this season, and 80 total points in two home games.
The situation in San Francisco doesn’t seem incredibly appetizing, but they are priced so low I’m not sure it matters. If Gabbert starts he will be tied for the lowest priced starting quarterback on the slate with Case Keenum and Cody Kessler. However, Gabbert has already posted four games of at least 14.5 fantasy points and two over 20. Both he and Kaepernick would have a pretty safe floor due to their rushing ability and the Bills are very quietly eighth in yards per attempt allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Jamaal Charles at Raiders, $4,900
I have zero reservations about what Charles can do if he is fully health. That means he is dramatically underpriced as the RB15 this week, tied with backfield-mate Spencer Ware. He declared himself 100 percent healthy before the Chiefs’ bye week, playing 10 snaps in a blowout loss to the Steelers. Now he gets to face a Raider defense ranked 29th in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA and 24th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game.
This may not turn out exactly like it did in Pittsburgh with Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams, but I have a hard time believing the most efficient running back of all time isn’t going to find a way to produce at this price on Sunday.
James Starks vs. Cowboys, $4,400
Starks could be your injury value of the week after Eddie Lacy hurt his ankle against the Giants.
Lacy's injury is "not serious" but not sure of his availability for this week. Cobb is sore and should be fine for Sunday.
— Packer Report (@PackerReport) October 10, 2016
We don’t have a huge sample on Starks with Lacy out, but in the one game he missed Starks had 15 rush attempts and seven targets. So far this season the pair is averaging a combined 23.5 rushes and targets in four games. Even in what should be a terribly slow game against Dallas, it’s hard to pass up that kind of workload at a cheap price.
Cameron Meredith vs. Jaguars, $4,200
Meredith is the easy chalk value of the week. In his first game as a starter without Kevin White, Meredith saw 12 targets, catching nine for 130 yards and a touchdown. He has played 80 of the 85 snaps since White went out and seems to be a staple of this offense for the time being. Jacksonville isn’t the same kind of pushover Indianapolis is, but this game still has a 47 Over/Under and the Bears are home favorites. If he had more name value he would absolutely be priced higher.
Breshad Perriman at Giants, $3,700
This is a deep play, but Perriman has a shot to pick up some outstanding opportunity in this offense. Both Steve Smith and Mike Wallace were injured on Sunday and neither of their statuses have been updated yet for Week 6. Here is the current Ravens target distribution per the RotoViz Screener.
Smith and Wallace represent the top two target-loads on the team, with Dennis Pitta coming in a close third. Perriman has pretty clearly passed Kamar Aiken in the receiver pecking order and almost scored the game winning touchdown against Josh Norman on Sunday. He’s a former first round pick who could do some serious damage with eight-to-10 targets against a banged up Giants secondary.
C.J. Fiedorowicz vs. Colts, $3,900
Fiedorowicz has been an effective part of this offense the last two weeks, totaling 109 yards and a touchdown. With Ryan Griffin in the concussion protocol he could see a slight uptick from the 13 targets he has seen over that time frame. The Colts are dead last in DVOA against the tight end.
Lance Kendricks at Lions, $3,500
Every single week the tight end playing the Lions should be under consideration. Detroit has allowed 299 yards and six touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season and every tight end that has gone over three targets against them has managed double-digit fantasy points. Kendricks is averaging 4.6 targets on the year, so team #ArbitraryThreshold is giving him a look this week. Cheap touchdown upside is what we want in a value tight end.
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