Deeper, Cheaper, and More Contrarian: Week 11
Welcome back for week 11. Hopefully you took advantage of the Russ/Baldwin stack last week and maybe sprinkled in some DeMarco Murray too. We’re nearing a full return to normalcy, in that the NFL’s unpredictability is more predictable and exactly what we GPP players search for. Let’s hope for another week where chalk in GPP lineups burns like “This is fine.” Apologies in advance, but a domestic plumbing disaster requiring too much work will keep my Week 11 Fantasy Aces GPP analysis more abbreviated than usual.
Marcus Mariota is once again the chalk at 40% with value pricing and a good match-up, so be sure to get some under-owned options if you’re using him. There are two very contrarian options who are not in bad spots and not ridiculously priced to get in some lineups…
Andy Dalton – $6600, 1%
Coming off a prime time road clunker, which is kind of his thing, Dalton has a nice opportunity to bounce back at home against a Bills unit that’s allowed at least 28 points in their last three games.
Stack with Tyler Eifert and/or AJ Green. Tyrod Taylor and Robert Woods are nice game stacks as well.
Eli Manning – $6700, 1%
Eli has thrown for at least 240 yards in every home game this season and has thrown for at least three touchdowns in his last three home games. Chicago keeping this contest somewhat competitive is the biggest concern.
Stack with Odell Beckham Jr.
Doug Martin – $4850, 1%
This one doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, as the grossly inferior Jacquizz Rodgers has shown us just how valuable this workload is. The match-up isn’t prohibitive and the price is very right. Fire away!
Kenneth Dixon – $3800, 2%
His receiving workload could be a huge boon this week. The Ravens are likely to trail at Dallas and Dixon’s seven targets last week (including an end zone target, in which the ball came out late, almost a surefire TD) could seem small in comparison. Huge value and no ownership is the combo we look for.
Simply put, this is the dumbest list of ownership percentages for a week of wide receivers I’ve ever seen. Ever. The subtitle reads, “Let’s find most of the best wide receivers in football and fade them.” The most ridiculous thing is the majority of the list is grossly under-priced.
Dez Bryant – $5300, 2%
Jordy Nelson – $5700, 2%
Deandre Hopkins – $5200, 2%
AJ Green – $6100, 3%
Odell Beckham Jr – $6400, 4%
Stefon Diggs – $4900, 4%
Allen Robinson – $5100, 6%
Doug Baldwin – $4900, 6%
First, when will the madness with Baldwin’s pricing end? Second, I think it’s roughly an even-money proposition that at least three of the top five wideouts for the week come from the above list. It’s just silly they’re faded at this level. Anteing up at wide receiver could very well be the play this week.
Jamison Crowder is the most owned wide receiver at just 28%, thanks to his very affordable $4300 price tag. However, there are two arbitrage versions of Crowder who are both only 10% owned and both $100 cheaper: Tyreek Hill and Steve Smith. These guys are how you find value to make the aforementioned pricier guys fit.
Per usual, tight end is very spread out, and contrariansism isn’t really called for.
The best values are Zach Miller ($4000, 12%) and Eric Ebron ($4200, 6%)
The Miami Dolphins’ unit at 32% is much higher than anticipated, so pivoting off of them may be beneficial. The other options jumping out are as follows:
New England Patriots – $3300, 1%
Cleveland Browns – $2300, 2%
Arizona Cardinals – $3100, 2%
Seattle Seahawks – $3100, 4%
Oakland Raiders – $2600, 8%
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