The Week 1 DraftKings billion dollar “perfect lineup” challenge had an estimated odds of winning at roughly 1 in 2 trillion, so it’s a shocker nobody won, but I did try to lead you in the right direction with my GPP selection of Matthew Stafford in Week 1’s iteration of this article. The correct stack was Stafford with Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay against Arizona and their star corners, go figure.
A total of 10 of Week 1’s 15 games went under the Vegas point total, so if regression to the mean, um, means anything, expect big numbers in Week 2. Patriots/Saints has an over/under of 56 and Packers/Falcons is at 54, two incredibly high totals this early in the season. It wouldn’t be the worst idea to sift through these games’ players first when constructing your DFS lineups. However, the four most expensive quarterbacks are Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan… go figure. DraftKings is smart, and so are you. Try to stay away from these four. Daily Fantasy is all about returning value on your investments, and the margin of error when selecting one of these guys is slim.
CASH GAMES – Philip Rivers ($5,800)
Philip Rivers is in every singe one of my lineups this week, I’m not even diversifying, so I’m all-in with Marmalard. We saw on Monday the Chargers game plan was to stay grounded from the No Fly Zone until a late comeback sort of padded Rivers’ stats. What the Chargers need to take away from their loss at Denver was that their bread and butter, and the thing that could make them a contender to win their division, is their elite passing game. Establishing Melvin Gordon with 18 carries for 54 yards while you fall behind by three scores will not cut it when you have one of the best quarterbacks in the game. For the first time in years, and possibly ever, Rivers has the combo of his primary receivers healthy and a solid pair of bookends in Russell Okung and Joe Barksdale. The monetary investment of Okung and improvement of Barksdale were on full display Monday night, with the Broncos elite pass rush only getting one sack all game, even with constant heavy pressure. The Dolphins pass rush will be a much easier task, even with Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake on that line. I’m expecting Antonio Gates ($3,000) to get the tight end touchdown record this week at home in their new, temporary soccer stadium. While usage is nearly impossible to predict, it does seem like the Chargers are trying to go out of their way to get Gates that record. For only $3K, this is a unique situation that shouldn’t be overlooked. A stack of Rivers with Keenan Allen ($5,800) and Gates is my personal choice, and I believe it will make a lot of people serious cash this weekend.
GPP – Jared Goff ($5,100)
With tournament plays you gotta get creative. While Jared Goff is now on people’s radars with a 306-yard performance in week 1, his ownership percentage will still be low and he has a decent chance of being among the top scorers at the quarterback position in Week 2. Reading between the lines, the Rams/Washington game has the fourth-highest over/under of the week, and as mentioned in the intro, I believe many games this week will go over the total. With Vegas setting the Rams point total at 24.5, the oddsmakers are saying the Rams have three touchdowns in them this week. Would it be out of the ordinary Goff gets all three, knowing Washington’s game plan will be to stop Gurley? Not at all. And, who knows, Washington’s defense just might not be very good. Carson Wentz was the fifth-best fantasy quarterback in Week 1, passing for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns in FedExField (what an awkward, terrible stadium name). A stack with Sammy Watkins ($5,200), who might go low owned with the potential of Josh Norman shadowing him, could lead to a high output combination that wins tournaments.
QB to Avoid – Aaron Rodgers ($7,400)
I’m buying into the Mercedes-Benz Stadium grand home-opener narrative here. Also, this line is Atlanta -3 and the money is still coming in on the Falcons, with Pinnacle moving their moneyline from -143 to -152 in the past day, even though the Packers are a public underdog in this spot? Everybody just saw the Bears almost beat the Falcons, and the Packers demolish an “elite” Seahawks team (offensive line, still important in football), so I’m expecting the Falcons to win relatively easy. While Rodgers will likely still throw for 300+ yards in a dome, I believe he will throw only one touchdown yet again. At this price, Discount Doublecheck will need to throw a minimum of three touchdowns to return value. Rodgers was sacked four times last week and threw an uncharacteristic pick-six (I know he didn’t, but the referees absolutely bailed the Packers out with those two penalties on that play), so I’m expecting a lot of pressure on Rodgers by an underrated Falcons defense with a pumped up crowd behind them.