2016 2QB Dynasty Musings
Dynasty fantasy football isn’t my forte. As much fun as it sounds managing a fantasy franchise all year long I can’t make the time commitment dynasty leagues require from owners. …
When I’m not knowledgeable in a certain field I try my best to surround myself with experts whose opinions and insight I can lean on and trust. When it comes to dynasty fantasy football, the experts in the field are the fine folks over at DynastyLeagueFootball.com.
While their 2QB dynasty coverage isn’t as vast as their traditional dynasty content, they have made a concentrated effort to provide more 2QB dynasty content. They have 2QB dynasty rankings and 2QB dynasty ADP data from one of the best in the business, Ryan McDowell.
It was very appreciated by the 2QB community when McDowell got the ball rolling with some 2QB ADP data, even if it’s based on a small sample size of two January 2QB mock drafts. It might not be much, but it’s something to go off of.
After looking at the 2QB Dynasty ADP data McDowell graciously provided, here is the quarterback breakdown:
*Four quarterbacks selected in the top-12 (Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson); three in the top-10.
*Eight signal callers were taken within the first 24 picks.
*The top-50 saw 15 quarterbacks selected, and 26 were drafted within the first 100 picks.
*There were a total of 38 quarterbacks selected (out of 240 picks).
Below is a list of the quarterback ADP:
|QB29||Robert Griffin III||142|
The general thought process when it comes to 2QB/Superflex fantasy football leagues is that you need two elite signal callers to be competitive. I don’t necessarily think that’s true, as there is value to be had at the quarterback position later in drafts.
However, if you’re adamant you need/want to go QB-QB or grab two signal callers early, you should be aware of the cost associated with that particular draft strategy.
We see Luck, Newton, Rodgers, and Wilson will cost you a first round pick, assuming a 2QB dynasty league of 12 teams. With Jameis Winston (ADP of 13) and Blake Bortles (ADP of 13.5) nearly crashing the first round.
If any quarterback is worthy of a first round selection in a 2QB dynasty startup draft it would be the likes of Luck, Newton, Rodgers, and Wilson. One year of production from Winston and Bortles makes them risky selections, especially in the first round. Pulling the trigger on either young signal caller within the first three rounds sounds like a risky proposition.
In order to better understand, let’s visualize what going QB-QB entails, drafting from the 1.12 slot.
Based on the ADP data, Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston would be our first two picks. The quarterback position is most definitely solidified, but we’ve also bypassed our chance at rostering a bonafide RB1 or WR1.
We won’t be back on the clock until the 3.12 and 4.01 picks, or the 36th and 37th overall picks, respectively.
Instead of drafting and rostering elite talents at running back like Le’Veon Bell/David Johnson or a wide receiver such as Sammy Watkins/Alshon Jeffery, we’re now looking at the Devante Parker/Dorial Green-Beckham tier at wideout and TJ Yeldon/Doug Martin tier at running back.
You’ll also see, based on the ADP data, the likes of Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor are available in the mid-rounds. I can’t speak for everyone, as each 2QB dynasty drafter is unique, values players differently, and has their own way of roster building, but, for myself personally, a start of Mike Evans/Le’Veon Bell would be preferable to Wilson/Winston.
The quarterback position is deep enough with solid options, I feel comfortable bypassing the early round quarterbacks and attacking the mid-to-late round tiers.
According to the ADP, the sweet spot for me would begin around Carson Palmer at 62 overall (QB19), all the way to Joe Flacco at 88.5 overall (QB26). You could include Matt Ryan (54.5 ADP-QB17) and Philip Rivers (57.5 ADP-QB18) in that tier as well, but they’re just a tad more expensive.
Of this tier, the signal callers I would target are Palmer, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Alex Smith, and Joe Flacco. One thing that immediately jumps out is age. They’re all in their 30s, with Flacco (31) the youngest and Brees (37) the oldest.
In my limited dynasty playing career, I’ve noticed you can get a discount on veterans in startups. Drafters are willing to pay the price for the sexier, younger players, rather than get stuck with boring ole’ Joe(s) (Flacco).
This leaves us with an opportunity to exploit draft tendencies to our benefit, while still building a competitive roster.
Flacco (5), Brees (6) Eli (7), Smith (7), and Palmer (8) each had five or more top-12 (QB1) scoring fantasy weeks in 2015. Getting that type of high-end fantasy production later in the draft allows you flexibility in bypassing using early round draft capital on the position, and instead focus on filling out your roster with elite players at running back and wide receiver/tight end.
The fantastic thing about 2QB leagues, be it redraft or dynasty, is there is no one right way to draft. There are multiple ways to attack 2QB leagues, and draft strategy varies from owner to owner. What this 2QB dynasty ADP data allows us to do is formulate draft strategies, and determine when to plan for quarterback runs. Because they will happen.
Dynasty 2QB leagues can be even more outrageous than redraft leagues when it comes to quarterback runs because you’re locking up your signal callers for what feels like an eternity. Miss out on Bortles in redraft and you can draft him next year. Miss out on Bortles in dynasty and it might cost you a couple of first round picks to trade for him.
Not every owner drafting in a 2QB dynasty startup will feel comfortable leaving the draft without a stud QB1. If you fall into that category, you might want to consider a ‘Studs & Streaming’ approach to your draft, where you can split the difference between going quarterback early and waiting on the position. You can learn more about the ‘Studs & Streaming’ draft strategy for 2QB leagues in our 2QB draft strategy section.
Hopefully taking a peek at McDowell’s 2QB dynasty ADP sheds some light into what it’s like to draft in a startup 2QB dynasty league and gives you some idea as to how the quarterback position is picked apart. If you’re interested, you can check out my Top 200 overall 2QB dynasty rankings here.
What’s your draft strategy in a 2QB/Superflex dynasty league? Were there any surprises in the ADP data? Like Kirk Cousins going ahead of Tom Brady, for example? Let us know in the comments section how you tackle 2QB/Superflex dynasty leagues.