Age or production, which should we prioritize in dynasty leagues? That question may never satisfactorily be answered, but every dynasty owner has an opinion. … Even if they only hold it as a subconscious opinion.
In standard 1QB dynasty leagues, age matters very little to a quarterback’s dynasty value, because you can easily find new QBs on waivers. There is no shortage at the position, so emphasize production over everything. In 2QB leagues, the calculation must change. Because it is far more difficult to acquire replacement quarterbacks, youth takes on added importance.
For my initial QB rankings, I looked at only two numbers: age and points per game. Those two allowed me to compare players on a level playing field, whereas total points would not have taken injuries into account. As someone who does not believe in the predictivity of most injuries, I would rather look at how a QB performed in the games he was on the field. A player is only injury-prone until he isn’t.
Here is my first pass at dynasty QB rankings for the 2017 offseason, before the rookies get added to the player pool. Let me know where you disagree. (For redraft QB ranks, Salvatore Stefanile has you covered)
- Cam Newton – I struggled to rank Cam after his last two seasons. No one would be surprised if his 2017 season pushes him up to QB2 in many dynasty rankings, but would you be more surprised if he struggles again and falls well below where I have him now?
- Tyrod Taylor – Taylor is going to be a cheap addition the first couple months of this offseason, until his situation gets more solid. He has two consecutive top-10 PPG seasons, and I’m a buyer.
- Philip Rivers – As the leading apologist for the man behind the bolo tie, it hurt me to rank Rivers this low, but I have to recognize his mid-QB2 PPG numbers for what they are. He’s 35 years old, and he’s much better cast as your team’s QB2 than your QB1. I still like him because I like reliable QB2s in 2QB dynasty leagues, but I can’t overpay for him anymore.
- Sam Bradford/Teddy Bridgewater – No matter which one starts in Minnesota, could they be the new Alex Smith? The upside is low for both, but I love the efficiency and how seldom Bradford turned over the ball this year. These guys couldn’t get much cheaper in most leagues, so I might stash both if the price is right.