Looking Down the Road to 2018
For the 2017 NFL Draft, three quarterbacks were drafted in the first round and one in the second. For the 2018 season, there are expected to be five quarterbacks taken in the first round and an additional two in the second. How does this affect your draft strategy in 2QB leagues for this year?
In many ways, to be a success in 2QB dynasty leagues, one must be a master of balance. Do you add the veteran or the rookie? Do you draft a quarterback in a rookie draft when everyone else is adding running backs and tight ends? How many quarterbacks does a team need to ensure they have two to start every week for the next ten years? Balancing the needs to win today and the needs to win tomorrow are paramount.
This year in two-quarterback dynasty leagues, people are drafting the top running backs and a top wide receiver or two with the first five picks. Then a tight end or two, which is followed by rolling the dice. Outside the top-six or top-seven picks there are question marks. In a one-quarterback league this year I selected Mitchell Trubisky at pick 4.8. That’s a pretty good indicator of how much faith the fantasy community is putting in him. But looking down the road there might be a stronger quarterback class coming up. How do we prepare for it?
If you’re the New York Jets, you prepare by shedding your top wide receiver (Eric Decker) and your top linebacker (David Harris). They also already offloaded Darrelle Revis, Brandon Marshall and Nick Mangold. They are quite literally making it difficult for their own team to win, most likely in an effort to pick up the top quarterback in next year’s class. This has the smell of a “Suck for Luck” campaign several years ago where it seemed like Indianapolis was making bad moves (like playing Curtis Painter) to get the number one overall NFL draft pick. Sam Darnold is being hailed as the next Andrew Luck-level quarterback. Next year that might be Josh Allen or someone else, but the overall impression is that this was the year of the running back and next year will be the year of the quarterback.
For 2QB dynasty fantasy football, this has some draft implications.
You need to first take an honest look at your existing team and decide if you can win the league this year. If you already have two of the top-16 quarterbacks and are maybe a running back or wide receiver short of taking it all, then trade up into the top-three this year and go for the gold.
However, if you picked up a badly damaged orphan or if your team is rebuilding you will probably need another year or two of trading or drafting to make it happen. Consider accumulating 2018 picks. To me, it seems this year’s fantasy draft class has a rather sharp drop between the first and second tier of players. Rather than hold on to a late-first or mid-second, I’d prefer to move back a year. Even if you can pick up second round picks, you can later combine two or three seconds to move up into the first.
One of the great things about 2QB leagues is that even if you don’t have the first or second overall pick next year, it doesn’t mean that you will necessarily need it. The first few picks will probably still be wide receivers or running backs in 2QB leagues. If you can get one pick in the top-five, you have a shot to get the next great NFL quarterback on your team.
And we’ll need to come up with a new “Suck for Luck” phrase. Maybe “Snarled for Darnold?” “Dis-armed for Darnold?” “Don’t give a damn – get Sam?”
I’ll stop now.
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