2QB Quarterback Big Board: Training Camp Edition

2QB Quarterback Big Board: Training Camp Edition

NFL Players may be reporting in just two weeks, but fantasy players are already in the midst of redraft prep. Training Camp is upon us. … And hopefully in a month we’ll have a better idea on many of the unsettled quarterback situations. To get yourself ready, be sure to participate in our mock drafts, which are run by our own Joshua Lake.

If you’re not already aware of this, in addition to the great articles, podcasts, rankings, and ADP data here at TwoQBs.com, there are also QB Stat Cards, which provide unique fantasy analysis on quarterbacks. I’ve geared this update to the big board towards data found on these QB cards, because looking at past performance is a vital component to predicting future success. What these QB cards do a great job of is illustrating consistency for quarterbacks across all tiers of success and failure. By showing the percentage of Top-10 and Top-20 finishes among appearances, and the number of places outside of the Top-24, we can quantify which QBs are elite QB1s, low-end QB1s, etc.

Each time I update this big board, I am amazed with just how deep QB is this year. This depth reaffirms my belief in picking within tiers. With LRQB being a way of life, it’s more important than ever to identify who you’re comfortable with grabbing at certain points in the draft as opposed to waiting to be one of the last people to get a QB. This year, within each tier, it seems to be almost a coin toss of who to take. There are clusters of QBs with recent success but small sample sizes, annual mid-level QB1s with seemingly similar upsides and floors, and fliers fighting for jobs that can prove to be real values. These QB Cards are a great way to dig deeper and differentiate between two players who have a seemingly equal number of strengths and weaknesses within these clusters.

With that, here is my updated big board, with links to each QB Card for nearly every player.

TierPlayerTeamComments
Elite QB1Aaron RodgersGBSince 2012, Aaron Rodgers has had a weekly Top-10 finish in 58% of his games played, leading all QBs. Elite floor, consistency, and upside make him the number one QB.
Elite QB1Cam NewtonCARCam has been incredibly consistent by finishing fourth, third, and first in total points in years in which he's played all 16 games. His style of play is the main roadblock in my opinion of making him my QB1, but it's nitpicking between ranking him and Rodgers.
Elite QB1Drew BreesNOOut with the old Ben Watson and Marques Colston, in with the young Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener. His consistency doesn't need to be praised further, but with arguably his most stacked receiving cast in years, Brees may prove to be the best value of the top-three quarterbacks in terms of where he is drafted.
Elite QB1Andrew LuckINDIt's tough to call Andrew Luck a post hype sleeper at QB4, but I think he's being overlooked. In his mammoth breakout in 2014, Luck finished as a Top-10 quarterback 75% of the time and had one finish outside the Top-24. This team is simply built for him to explode in 2016 if he can stay healthy.
Elite QB1Russell WilsonSEAStarting to come around on Russell Wilson. With the health of Thomas Rawls being a huge question mark, the Seahawks will most likely let Russell Wilson keep slinging it. After doling out serious money to Doug Baldwin, the Seahawks might just finally be committed to making this Wilson's offense.
Reliable QB1Tom BradyNESuspension be damned, I'm putting him atop the pack. He's still one of the safest quarterbacks (50% of his starts the last four years have been Top 10 finishes, 75% have been Top-20), he'll be playing pissed off, and I genuinely think his receiving corps is better than last year. If you value points per game over total points, Brady is the alone at the top of this tier.
Reliable QB1Eli ManningNYGAs Joshua Lake pointed out recently, he busts in 25% of all of his starts. So why am I ranking him so high? I think he is in his best situation in years, and has the highest ceiling of anyone in this tier besides Tom Brady. If the improvements on the defensive side of the ball are a success, Eli could be more efficient and strike lightning in a bottle a la Tony Romo in 2014.
Reliable QB1Carson PalmerARZThat NFC Championship game was a harsh reminder of Palmer's floor, but he's on arguably the most talented offense in the league and has been a bust in one game over the last two years (granted it was 22 starts). I'll take the steadiness if it means one catastrophic start per year.
Reliable QB1Philip RiversSDMuch like Manning, Roethlisberger, and Romo Rivers has been a consistent presence in low-end QB1 territory over the past few seasons. With the return of Keenan Allen, a healthy offensive line, and legit deep threat with Travis Benjamin, Rivers can very easily finish inside the Top-Five at QB.
Reliable QB1Ben RoethlisbergerPITI was shocked after looking at Ben Roethlisberger's QB card. Outside of 2015, he's averaged a Top-Ten finish in just 26% of his games played since 2012. According to the Game Splits App on RotoViz, Ben averages nearly 50 more passing yards per game when Le'Veon Bell isn't playing. Look how inflated his numbers were in 2015 without him. Big Ben has been a reliable low end QB1, but I'm starting to fade him as a Top-Five option.
Reliable QB1Tony RomoDALWant to talk about consistency? Romo's last four years in terms of points per game averages: 17.19, 17.39, 17.75, and 17.17. That ranks ahead of Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Palmer. He's thrived in roles dependent on volume and efficiency. The commitment to Elliott helps his efficiency and hurts his volume, but what could be a potentially disastrous defense will aid his volume and hurt his efficiency. I expect Romo to do what he always does; find a way to be a QB1. He'd be much higher if I didn't think he were such an injury risk.
Reliable QB1Andy DaltonCINIf you look at Andy Dalton's last four seasons, he's been Jekyll and Hyde. He's finished as a QB2, QB1, low-end QB2, and elite QB1 in his four seasons. I would like to think he could maintain last year's level of play if he didn't lose his second and third best receivers and Tyler Eifert wasn't currently set to miss some games.
High End QB2Marcus MariotaTENIf the Titans are committed to running with Mariota more, his rushing floor will boost his value significantly. While his per game stats (19.16 points per game) were great, one can argue it was inflated due to a small sample (11 starts).
High End QB2Kirk CousinsWASHere's what worries me about Kirk Cousins. He's in a good offense, but the signs are obvious for his regression. In his last 22 starts, he's finished outside of the Top-24 roughly a third of the time. When he has produced, he's had 11 Top-Ten finishes and 14 Top-20. He's essentially been a poor man's Eli Manning with much less experience as a starter.
High End QB2Matt RyanATLRyan has been the model QB2 in his career, finishing in the Top-20 in 73% of his starts since 2012. Last season he threw for the second fewest touchdown total of his career. Ryan is arguably one of the best QB2 picks this year as he's bound to throw for more touchdowns as he's gotten some help outside of Julio Jones.
High End QB2Derek CarrOAKDerek Carr's career is off to a strange start. Was barely serviceable in 2014, improved tremendously in 2015, then faded down the stretch.
Reliable QB2Joe FlaccoBALI'm getting wacko for Flacco again in 2016. Has the seventh-easiest QB schedule, has been given Ben Watson, Mike Wallace, and a healthy Breshad Perriman, as well as offensive line support. With five QB1 finishes in 10 games last season, there's a very high possibility Flacco will outperform his ADP.
Reliable QB2Matthew StaffordDETHis ADP is steadily climbing, and rightfully so. While he hasn't lived up to his ADP in years past, drafters might be overreacting to the loss of Calvin Johnson.
Reliable QB2Blake BortlesJAXYes he was a garbage time king, but he had a surprisingly high floor in 2015 (two finishes outside the Top-24). We'll see touchdown regression for sure, but I might have him above Derek Carr by the start of the season.
Reliable QB2Tyrod TaylorBUFWe know Tyrod's ceiling, but one has to wonder about his prospects for 2016. There's an injury risk due to his play style, the potential to not only start out without Sammy Watkins, but nothing behind him, and a much harder schedule in 2016. His rushing ability will buoy his floor, however.
Reliable QB2Jay CutlerCHISince 2012, Jay Cutler has been a worse version of Matt Ryan. Consistently in the QB2 range (65.5% in the Top-20), less upside as a QB1 (23.6% in the Top-Ten), and a much lower floor (20% outside the Top 24). I like his situation a lot in 2016, but historically he hasn't done much to make me think he'll ever capitalize.
Reliable QB2Jameis WinstonTBI think he'll be a solid QB2 with room for positive passing touchdown regression (Mike Evans isn't catching three TDs again), but his six rushing scores will decline. I think it will be difficult for Winston to finish better than he did in 2015 when it is all said and done.
Reliable QB2Ryan TannehillMIAI previously mentioned how Ryan Tannehill is shaping up to be the next Matt Ryan, but I didn't realize how similar. Like Ryan, Tannehill's 2015 seems to buck his career trend. Given his ADP, floor (70% of his finishes in the Top-20). Tannehill may be a steal come draft day.
Reliable QB2Alex SmithKCI don't think anything further needs to be said of Alex Smith other than that he is the answer to the prayers of 2QBers and LRQBers alike.
Low End QB2Teddy BridgewaterMINWith virtually no upside in his first two seasons (10% of his 29 games played have been Top-10 finishes, 48% in the Top-20, and a whopping 27.6% outside the Top-24), Teddy Bridgewater has barely been worthy of starting. This tweet tells a large story, however. If the offense improves slightly with the addition of Laquon Treadwell and more passing volume, Bridgewater can be another draft day steal.
Low End QB2Brock OsweilerHOUWe don't have much to go off of here, so I'll be a skeptic until I see more out of him. He's in a great situation, but then again, he was in one last season and was wildly inconsistent.
Low End QB2Mark SanchezDENIn his last 11 games played, the Sanchize has four Top-10 finishes, eight Top-20 finishes, and only two weeks outside of the Top-24. If he wins the job, I think he's a perfect candidate for a 2QBBC.
Low End QB2Robert Griffin IIICLERGIII has dramatically been a worse quarterback in each of the last three seasons he played in (21, 16, and 9 PPG), and missed last season entirely. A change of scenery might help, but there's too much risk between a new organization, the time off, and the weapons in his offense to count on him to be a weekly starter.
Low End QB2Sam BradfordPHIThe Eagles are still claiming the plan is to sit Carson Wentz this season. "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth", or has a terrible year. I like Bradford in this offense, truth be told, but I don't like his lack of job security. If Bradford repeats his 2015 with an average weekly finish as QB18, he will be a nice value come draft day for those taking quarterbacks very late.
Low End QB2Blaine GabbertSF2015 was a bit of a renaissance for Gabbert, as he finished as a QB2 in 87.5% of his appearances. If you believe in Chip Kelly's system and that he will win the job, Gabbert should be another LRQB with a higher than perceived floor, but low upside.
Low End QB2Geno SmithNYJI like to deal with facts, and as of right now, Geno Smith is opening up the season under center for the Jets. You can read here why I like his prospects in 2015 in greater detail.
Low End QB2Jared GoffSTLGoff is a tough rookie to get behind. He's in a an offense that lacks QB friendly receivers, figures to hand the ball of a ton, and doesn't have any rushing ability to boost his floor. He's an easy avoid in 2016 unless you're desparate.
FliersRyan FitzpatrickIf you're drafting today, I don't blame you for taking him over Geno, but I don't like dealing in non absolutes.
FliersColin KaepernickSFOdds are we see both Kaepernick and Gabbert this season. I'd like to hear how he fares in training camp before making any real assesment on him other than that he is currently being left for dead in SF.
FliersJimmy GaroppoloNEWith news of Tom Brady's suspension being upheld, Jimmy G is a great streaming option, and possibly a handcuff QB for those who draft Tom Brady. Sal points out here his prospects in the games he figures to play in.
FliersJosh McCownCLEIf he beats out RG3, he'd obviously rise, and was very serviceable in 2015.
FliersPaxton LynchDENHas a chance to beat out Sanchez, but don't count on it. Definitely an intriguing play if he does see time as the starter.
FliersCarson WentzPHIWill we see him in 2016?
FliersTrevor SiemianDENWHO?? Find out here.

Joe Siniscalchi

I currently reside in New York, and always enjoy looking for new challenges which led me to playing in 2QB leagues. I immediately got hooked on starting the likes of Gus Frerotte and Byron Leftwich and have been playing in 2QB leagues now for over 11 years. I've previously written for TheFakeFootball.com and Football.com. In my spare time I enjoy craft beer, chipwiches, and rooting for sports teams that ultimately wind up breaking my heart.

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