Moving Targets: Week 13

Moving Targets: Week 13

Moving Targets is a weekly column focused on tidbits and trends from target data, with an eye toward forecasting future value spikes for fantasy players. … My focus will be on the target numbers themselves, highlighting a few I find interesting. Each section will include a short blurb of analysis, but mostly I will allow you — the wise reader — to draw the conclusions you wish from the data.

Note: Target data comes from the 4for4 Player Targets App.

Arizona Cardinals

Week 13 Targets Previous Avg +/-
David Johnson 12 7.6 4.4
Larry Fitzgerald 11 10.1 0.9
Michael Floyd 8 5.4 2.6
John Brown 1 5.9 -4.9

John Brown is suffering from a serious medical condition and I wish him the very best, but you cannot trust him anymore in fantasy. He just isn’t the same player. Now that we’ve reached the fantasy playoffs, I’d drop him for a backup RB, who has starter potential if the lead back suffers an injury. Play for upside, not a hope John Brown starts getting five targets a game again. Otherwise, keep treating Larry Fitzgerald as a WR1 in PPR leagues.

Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13 Targets Previous Avg +/-
Brandon LaFell 7 5.8 1.2
Tyler Boyd 6 5.4 0.6
Rex Burkhead 5 0.4 4.6
Tyler Eifert 2 7.2 -5.2

Ignore Tyler Eifert’s two targest; I trust that situation will right itself soon. But more interestingly, go add Brandon LaFell. Tyler Boyd is getting all the hype, and in dynasty leagues he should. But LaFell is the WR you want to own in Cincinnati. Also, Rex Burkhead is a sneaky Giovani Bernard clone in fantasy terms. You could do far worse if you need a desperation flex in a deep league.

Green Bay Packers

Week 13 Targets Previous Avg +/-
Jordy Nelson 10 9.8 0.2
Davante Adams 7 7.8 -0.8
Jared Cook 4 4.8 -0.8
Randall Cobb 3 7.7 -4.7

I have beaten this drum into submission, but Davante Adams is a legitimate wide receiver, and it’s time we all recognized it. At this point, I am paying and overpaying to add Adams in dynasty leagues. Randall Cobb had an off-week. I still think you need to start him in most leagues, but he has a less-consistent role than does Adams in this offense. (Imagine saying that at the start of the season!)

Houston Texans

Week 13 Targets Previous Avg +/-
C.J. Fiedorowicz 9 5.4 3.6
DeAndre Hopkins 8 9.5 -1.5
Will Fuller 6 6.8 -0.8
Ryan Griffin 6 4.7 1.3

C.J. Fiedorowicz appears to have the latest last name spelling I need to memorize, because he appears legitimate. Brock Osweiler loves him some tight ends, and CJF is first on that list. Of some small comfort to DeAndre Hopkins owners, at least Osweiler tried to get him the ball this week — and has most of the year. I don’t love Will Fuller or Ryan Griffin, but I remain somewhat optimistic that Hopkins will return value. I would at least send out trade offers in dynasty to see if a panicking owner will sell below value.

New England Patriots

Week 13 Targets Previous Avg +/-
Julian Edelman 12 9.1 2.9
Malcolm Mitchell 10 2.7 7.3
Dion Lewis 5 6 -1
James White 5 5.6 -0.6
Chris Hogan 5 3.5 1.5

This is the new Patriots. Without Gronk, who are they? Malcolm Mitchell and the running backs lead the way, outside the obvious Julian Edelman play. Mitchell is the instant target now that the Patriots’ starting tight end is out, and he looks up to the task. Personally, I wish the Patriots would commit to either White or Lewis, but for now they’re destroying each other’s fantasy value. Both are worth rostering, but I can’t trust either one while they’re splitting work.

Joshua Lake

Josh has spent more than a decade in 2QB leagues, focusing on the bottom of the barrel when it comes to fantasy quarterbacks. His research focuses on quarterbacks, and he tries not to pretend he knows anything about the other positions. You can find him on Twitter at @LakeTwoQBs.

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