Noise and Signal Callers: Week 14

Noise and Signal Callers: Week 14

“Noise and Signal Callers” is a statistical smorgasbord for the upcoming NFL week. Some of the stats are (hopefully) predictive, while others are just interesting. I leave it to you to sort out which is which.

Oakland @ Kansas City

 OaklandKansas City
Starting QBDerek CarrAlex Smith
Spread3-3
Over/Under4646
Implied Total21.524.5

Derek Carr

  • In three games against the Chiefs in 2015 and 2016, Carr has averaged 234 passing yards, 1.3 passing touchdowns, 1.7 interceptions, and 13.0 FanDuel points per game.
  • Carr is averaging 16.3 yards per attempt on passes targeted at least 15 yards downfield. Only Matt Ryan and Drew Brees have higher averages.
  • 14.4 percent of Carr’s passes are targeted at least 15 yards downfield. Only Alex SmithSam Bradford, and Jared Goff throw deep less often.

Alex Smith

  • Smith has finished outside the top-24 QBs five times through 12 weeks. He finished outside the top 24 only twice in 2015.
  • Smith’s 15 rushing yards in Week 1 mark his season high. He matched or beat that total 14 times in 2015.

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo

 PittsburghBuffalo
Starting QBBen RoethlisbergerTyrod Taylor
Spread-11
Over/Under4747
Implied Total2423

Ben Roethlisberger

  • The Steelers have run just 37 plays from within 10 yards of the goal line. Only the Ravens, Browns, Dolphins, and Texans have had fewer opportunities.
  • The Steelers pass on 64.9 percent of plays from within 10 yards of the goal line. Only the Packers and Lions pass more.

Tyrod Taylor

  • In his last six games, Taylor has averaged 8.9 FanDuel points per game as a runner and 9.9 points per game as a passer.
  • The Steelers have yet to face a QB in 2016 who averages more than 15 rushing yards per game.

San Diego @ Carolina

 San DiegoCarolina
Starting QBPhilip RiversCam Newton
Spread1-1
Over/Under48.548.5
Implied Total23.7524.75

Philip Rivers

  • Rivers has thrown 14 interceptions, second-most in the league.
  • The Panthers have forced 12 intereceptions, tied for fifth-most in the league.

Cam Newton

  • Newton averaged 110 passing yards per touchdown in 2015. He’s averaging 187 passing yards per touchdown in 2016.
  • Newton has converted 55.6 of his opportunities (drop backs + rush attempts) from inside the 10 into touchdowns. No QB has been more efficient near the goal line.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

 CincinnatiClevelnad
Starting QBAndy DaltonRobert Griffin
Spread-5.55.5
Over/Under4343
Implied Total24.2518.75

Andy Dalton

  • The Browns have held their last two opponents (Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning) outside the top 12 QBs. That’s their longest such streak of the season.
  • In nine games with a healthy A.J. Green, Dalton averaged 284 passing yards, 1.1 passing touchdowns, and 17.9 FanDuel points. In three games since Green’s injury, Dalton has averaged 274 passing yards, 1.3 passing touchdowns, and 17.4 FanDuel points.

Robert Griffin

  • Only the Chargers (15) have more interceptions than the Bengals’ 14.
  • The Browns rank among the worst 10 teams in the league in the following passing categories (among others):
    • Yards
    • Touchdowns
    • Interceptions
    • Yards per attempt
    • Sacks

Chicago @ Detroit

 ChicagoDetroit
Starting QBMatt BarkleyMatthew Stafford
Spread8-8
Over/Under43.543.5
Implied Total17.7525.75

Matt Barkley

  • In their first seven games, the Lions allowed opposing QBs to score 24.2 FanDuel points per game.
  • In their last five games, the Lions have allowed opposing QBs to score 11.7 FanDuel points per game.

Matthew Stafford

  • The Lions pass the ball on 65.2 percent of plays within 10 yards of the goal line. That’s most in the league and 15 points above the league average of 50.2 percent.
  • Stafford has averaged 13.4 FanDuel points in five games against the 10 stingiest defenses for fantasy QBs (including the Bears). He has averaged 22.7 points per game against all other teams.

Houston @ Indianapolis

 HoustonIndianapolis
Starting QBBrock OsweilerAndrew Luck
Spread6-6
Over/Under4747
Implied Total20.526.5

Brock Osweiler

  • The Colts held Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bryce Petty to 9.9 FanDuel points in Week 13. That’s the first time they’ve held an oppenent’s QBs to fewer than 10 points in 2016, and they didn’t do it in 2015 either.
  • 34 QBs have reached 20 FanDuel points at least once this season. Osweiler is not among them.

Andrew Luck

  • In six games where Luck has been sacked at least three times, he has averaged 17.8 FanDuel points per game.
  • In six games where Luck has been sacked fewer than three times, he has averaged 23.6 FanDuel points per game.
  • The Texans are averaging just 1.8 sacks per game, tied for fourth-lowest in the league.

Minnesota @ Jacksonville

 MinnesotaJacksonville
Starting QBSam BradfordBlake Bortles
Spread-33
Over/Under3939
Implied Total2118

Sam Bradford

  • Bradford is the only QB to play at least 10 complete games who hasn’t finished among the top-10 QBs in any week.

Blake Bortles

  • Bortles has thrown 15 interceptions, most in the league.
  • The Vikings have intercepted 12 passes, tied for fifth-most in the league.

Arizona @ Miami

 ArizonaMiami
Starting QBCarson PalmerRyan Tannehill
Spread1-1
Over/Under43.543.5
Implied Total21.2522.25

Carson Palmer

  • In Palmer’s first six games, he averaged 285 passing yards, 1.2 passing touchdowns, 0.8 interceptions, and 15.0 FanDuel points per game.
  • In Palmer’s last five games, he has averaged 305 passing yards, 2.2 passing touchdowns, 1.2 interceptions, and 19.5 FanDuel points per game.

Ryan Tannehill

  • The Cardinals have allowed just 10 passing touchdowns and have forced 11 interceptions. The Broncos are the only other team with more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed.

Washington @ Philadelphia

 WashingtonPhiladelphia
Starting QBKirk CousinsCarson Wentz
Spread00
Over/Under46.546.5
Implied Total23.2523.25

Kirk Cousins

  • In his last three games against the Eagles, Cousins has averaged 306 passing yards, 2.3 passing touchdowns, 0.3 interceptions, and 24.1 FanDuel points per game.
  • In his first six games of the season, Cousins averaged 16.8 FanDuel points per game. In his last six games, he has averaged 23.5 points per game.
  • In the Eagles first six games, they allowed 11.6 QB FanDuel points per game. In their last six games, they’ve allowed 22.7 QB FanDuel points per game.

Carson Wentz

  • 46.7 of Wentz’s dropbacks from inside the 10 have resulted in touchdowns. Only Cam NewtonJameis WinstonTom Brady, and Marcus Mariota have been more efficient near the end zone.
  • The Eagles pass on only 30.0 percent of their plays from inside the 10, the second-lowest rate in the league.

Denver @ Tennessee

 DenverTennessee
Starting QBPaxton LynchMarcus Mariota
Spread1-1
Over/Under43.543.5
Implied Total21.2522.25

Paxton Lynch

  • 24.4 percent of Lynch’s passes have been targeted at least 15 yards downfield, the highest rate in the league..
  • Lynch is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt on passes targeted at least 15 yards downfield, the worst rate in the league.

Marcus Mariota

  • Despite facing five top-12 QBs, the Broncos have allowed the fewest QB fantasy points per game (13.5), top-6 finishes (0), top-18 finishes (4), and top-24 finishes (7). Only the Vikings have allowed fewer top-12 finishes.
  • Mariota has averaged 17.1 FanDuel points per game against the 10 toughest defenses for fantasy QBs. He has averaged 22.4 points per game against everyone else.

New York Jets @ San Francisco

 New York JetsSan Francisco
Starting QBBryce PettyColin Kaepernick
Spread2.5-2.5
Over/Under44.544.5
Implied Total2123.5

Bryce Petty

  • The 49ers have allowed seven top-12 QB performances. Only the Browns have allowed more (8).
  • 31 percent of Petty’s passes have targeted Robby Anderson.

Colin Kaepernick

  • Since the merger, only four QBs have had more rushing attempts than passing attempts in a game where they threw at least five passes: Tim Tebow (twice), Bobby Douglass (five times), Bradlee Van Pelt, and Kaepernick in Week 13.

Seattle @ Green Bay

 SeattleGreen Bay
Starting QBRussell WilsonAaron Rodgers
Spread-33
Over/Under4646
Implied Total24.521.5

Russell Wilson

  • Wilson has finished outside the top 18 QBs seven times through 12 games. He finished outside the top-18 QBs just once in 2015.
  • Since shedding his ankle brace and switching to a lighter knee brace before Week 9, Wilson has averaged 266 passing yards, 1.4 passing touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions, 28.8 rushing yards, and 21.3 FanDuel points per game.

Aaron Rodgers

  • Rodgers has nine top-12 finishes through 12 games. He had eight top-12 finishes in 2015.
  • Rodgers has averaged 19.0 FanDuel points in four games against the 10 stingiest defenses for fantasy QBs. He has averaged 25.8 points per game against all other teams.
  • The Seahawks are allowing 15.5 FanDuel points per game, sixth-lowest in the league.

Atlanta @ Los Angeles

 AtlantaLos Angeles
Starting QBMatt RyanJared Goff
Spread-6.56.5
Over/Under4545
Implied Total25.7519.25

Matt Ryan

  • The Rams have allowed only three top-12 QB weeks in 2016 (tied for third-fewest in the league), and they allowed only four in all of 2015 (tied for fourth-fewest in the league).

Jared Goff

  • 88.0 percent of Goff’s passes have been targeted less than 15 yards downfield, the highest rate in the league.
  • Goff is averaging 4.5 yards per attempt on passes targeted less than 15 yards downfield, the worst rate in the league.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

 New OrleansTampa Bay
Starting QBDrew BreesJameis Winston
Spread2.5-2.5
Over/Under5151
Implied Total24.2526.75

Drew Brees

  • Before Week 13, Brees’ last zero-touchdown, multi-interception game was Week 13 in 2012. The last time it happened at home was Week 5 of 2007.
  • In his last four games against the Buccaneers, Brees has averaged 305 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, 1.8 interceptions, and 16.5 FanDuel points.

Jameis Winston

  • Winston has converted 52.0 percent of his opportunities (drop backs + rushes) from inside the 10 into touchdowns. Only Cam Newton and Marcus Mariota have been more efficient.
  • 22.4 percent of Winston’s passes are targeted at least 15 yards downfield. That’s third-most in the league among QBs with at least 150 attempts.

Dallas @ New York Giants

 DallasNew York Giants
Starting QBDak PrescottEli Manning
Spread-33
Over/Under47.547.5
Implied Total25.2522.25

Dak Prescott

  • The Giants are allowing only 14.2 QB FanDuel points per game, second-fewest in the league.
  • In six games against the 10 toughest defenses for fantasy QBs (including one against the Giants), Prescott has averaged 17.9 FanDuel points.

Eli Manning

  • In his last meetings with the Cowboys in 2015 and 2016, Manning has averaged 190 passing yards, 1.0 passing touchdown, 0.3 interceptions, and 11.1 FanDuel points.
  • In four games against top-12 fantasy QBs, the Cowboys have allowed 25.4 FanDuel points per game. Against everyone else, they’ve allowed 16.6 points per game.

Baltimore @ New England

 BaltimoreNew England
Starting QBJoe FlaccoTom Brady
Spread7.5-7.5
Over/Under45.545.5
Implied Total1926.5

Joe Flacco

  • Flacco’s current completion percentage (64.6) would be a career high.
  • Flacco’s current yards per pass attempt (6.6) would be the second-lowest of his career.

Tom Brady

  • In his first four games since returning from suspension, Brady averaged 330 passing yards, 3.0 passing touchdowns, 0.0 interceptions, and 26.2 FanDuel points.
  • In Brady’s last four games, he has averaged 288 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, 0.3 interceptions, and 18.7 FanDuel points.

Brian Malone

Brian has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade, and he made the jump to 2QB in 2013. If you follow him @BrianMaloneFF, he will at some point lecture you about longevity and positional baselines until you tell him to shut up.

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