Noise and Signal Callers: Week 9
“Noise and Signal Callers” is a statistical smorgasbord for the upcoming NFL week. Some of the stats are (hopefully) predictive, while others are just interesting. … I leave it to you to sort out which is which.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
|Starting QB||Matt Ryan||Jameis Winston|
- The Buccaneers have allowed 19.9 FanDuel points per game, eighth most in the league, despite facing only two top-12 QBs all season (Ryan and Derek Carr).
- In his last three games against the Buccaneers, Ryan has averaged 333 passing yards, 1.7 passing touchdowns, 0.7 interceptions, and 22.2 FanDuel points. The Falcons are 0-3 in those games, losing by a combined margin of 14 points.
- Winston has eight total touchdowns (rushing + passing) on 13 opportunities within 10 yards of the end zone. That 62-percent success rate is best in the league among QBs with at least five opportunities.
- The Falcons have allowed 23.1 QB FanDuel points per game, most in the league. Though, to be fair, they haven’t faced Brock Osweiler.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
|Starting QB||Ben Roethlisberger (?)||Joe Flacco|
- In the Steelers’ four wins, Roethlisberger has averaged 26.9 FanDuel points per game.
- In the Steelers’ two losses, Roethlisberger has averaged 9.8 FanDuel points per game.
- Flacco has just one top-12 week through eight games in 2016. He had five in 2015, despite playing only ten games.
- The Steelers have had the least effective pass rush in the league, notching just eight sacks in seven games.
Dallas @ Cleveland
|Starting QB||Dak Prescott||Josh McCown (?)|
- Since 2000, only Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Jameis Winston have played at least eight games and averaged at least 250 passing yards in their rookie seasons. Prescott is averaging 253 passing yards per game through seven games.
- Prescott has topped 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt in six straight games. Only Matt Ryan has a longer active streak.
- Since the beginning of 2015, McCown has averaged 19.9 FanDuel points in eight complete games. That would rank as QB9 in 2016 points per game.
- The Cowboys have allowed just 17.0 FanDuel points per game, but they’ve faced only one top-12 QB (Aaron Rodgers).
Jacksonville @ Kansas City
|Starting QB||Blake Bortles||Nick Foles|
- Bortles has averaged 1.3 interceptions per game. Among QBs with at least four appearances, only Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick have more.
- The Chiefs have averaged 1.6 interceptions per game, most in the league. The Cardinals are closest with 1.3 per game.
- Since the start of 2015, the Chiefs have averaged just 25 pass attempts in games where they were favored by a touchdown or more.
- In 11 games with the Rams in 2015, Foles averaged 30 pass attempts per game. He never topped 20 FanDuel points, and he averaged 9.6 FanDuel points per game.
New York Jets @ Miami
|New York Jets||Miami|
|Starting QB||Ryan Fitzpatrick||Ryan Tannehill|
- In Week 8, Fitzpatrick became the first QB to score fewer than 15 FanDuel points against the Browns this season.
- Fitzpatrick has also posted the lowest scoring weeks allowed by the Cardinals (6.2) (To be fair, Fitzpatrick was benched in the fourth quarter against Arizona.) and the Chiefs (3.7).
- Tannehill has only eight opportunities on plays starting within 10 yards of the end zone. 30 QBs have had more chances, including Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Brock Osweiler, and Brian Hoyer.
- Tannehill has finished outside the top-24 QBs three times through seven games. He finished outside the top 24 just once in 2015.
Detroit @ Minnesota
|Starting QB||Matthew Stafford||Sam Bradford|
- The Vikings haven’t allowed a 300-yard passing game in their last 24 contests. The next-longest active streak is Houston with 18 games.
- Stafford has already faced two of the five stingiest defenses against QBs, Houston and Philadelphia. He averaged 210 passing yards, 2.0 passing touchdowns, and 16.2 FanDuel points against them. In all other games, he has averaged 289 passing yards, 2.0 passing touchdowns, and 21.1 FanDuel points.
- Bradford has yet to reach 20 FanDuel points in a game this season. Among QBs with at least six starts, only Brock Osweiler has had a lower ceiling.
Philadelphia @ New York Giants
|Philadelphia||New York Giants|
|Starting QB||Carson Wentz||Eli Manning|
- Wentz has two top-12 weeks and zero top-6 weeks through seven games.
- Despite facing two top-6 QBs (Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees) and another in the top 12 (Dak Prescott), the Giants haven’t allowed a top-6 QB week, and they’ve surrendered just 14.5 FanDuel points per game.
- Manning had five top-6 weeks in 2015. He has zero through seven games in 2016.
- Aside from his rookie season, Manning has thrown at least 20 touchdowns in every season but one. He is on pace for 18.3 in 2016.
Carolina @ Los Angeles
|Starting QB||Cam Newton||Case Keenum|
- Newton’s 12.8 FanDuel points against the Cardinals in Week 8 marked his worst fantasy output since Week 1 of 2015.
- Since the start of 2015, Newton has finished as a top-24 QB every week he’s played. Among QBs with at least 16 games over that span, Andy Dalton is the only other QB who hasn’t finished outside the top 24.
- Keenum has thrown 8 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Among QBs with at least 100 pass attempts, only Ryan Fitzpatrick has a worse touchdown-to-interception ratio.
- Keenum is still averaging more FanDuel points per game (14.0) than Russell Wilson (13.3).
New Orleans @ San Francisco
|New Orleans||San Francisco|
|Starting QB||Drew Brees||Colin Kaepernick|
- Brees has finished as a top 6-QB in four of seven games this season. Aside from Brees, only Tom Brady (three of four) has been top-6 in more than half his appearances.
- Brees and Joe Flacco are tied for the league lead in pass attempts per game. They’re each on pace for 704 attempts.
- The 49ers have faced the fewest pass attempts per game. They’re on pace to see just 512 attempts.
- Among QBs with at least four appearances, Tyrod Taylor leads the league with 39.9 rushing yards per game. If Kaepernick rushes for zero yards in his next two games, he’ll be averaging 37.5 rushing yards per game.
- The Saints have allowed one top-6 QB performance through seven games. In 2015, they allowed eight top-6 performances.
Indianapolis @ Green Bay
|Starting QB||Andrew Luck||Aaron Rodgers|
- Luck’s 1.6-percent interception rate is tied for the lowest in his career.
- The Packers have allowed just two top-12 QB weeks. Only the Broncos and Vikings have allowed fewer.
- Rodgers has three top-6 performances through seven weeks. He had four in all of 2015.
- The Colts have allowed 20.0 FanDuel points per game, sixth most in the league. This despite not facing a single top-6 QB and only two top-12 QBs (Matthew Stafford and Blake Bortles).
Tennessee @ San Diego
|Starting QB||Marcus Mariota||Philip Rivers|
- Mariota has averaged 24.2 FanDuel points in Titans wins. He has averaged 12.6 FanDuel points per game in Titans losses.
- Mariota is the only QB in the league with two weeks inside the top 6 and two weeks outside the top 24.
- The Titans allowed just 12.6 FanDuel points per game for the first five weeks of the season. In the last three weeks, they’ve allowed 26.4 FanDuel points per game (to Cody Kessler, Andrew Luck, and Blake Bortles).
Denver @ Oakland
|Starting QB||Trevor Siemian||Derek Carr|
- Aside from a 29-point outburst against Cincinnati in Week 3, Siemian has averaged 10.9 FanDuel points in his five complete games.
- Carr has four top-6 weeks through eight games. He had four in all of 2015.
- The Broncos have allowed zero top-6 weeks and only one top-12 week (to Cam Newton in Week 1).
Buffalo @ Seattle
|Starting QB||Tyrod Taylor||Russell Wilson|
- Taylor has topped 15 FanDuel points in seven straight games. That’s the longest active streak in the league.
- Taylor has faced just one defense (the Jets) in the top 10 of most QB FanDuel points per game allowed.
- Wilson has averaged 1 passing touchdown for every 362 passing yards. Only Joe Flacco has a lower touchdown-to-yard ratio.
- In his career before 2016, Wilson had averaged 1 passing touchdown for every 132 passing yards.