Noise and Signal Callers: Week 9

Noise and Signal Callers: Week 9

“Noise and Signal Callers” is a statistical smorgasbord for the upcoming NFL week. Some of the stats are (hopefully) predictive, while others are just interesting. … I leave it to you to sort out which is which.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

 AtlantaTampa Bay
Starting QBMatt RyanJameis Winston
Spread-3.53.5
Over/Under51.551.5
Implied Total27.524

Matt Ryan

  • The Buccaneers have allowed 19.9 FanDuel points per game, eighth most in the league, despite facing only two top-12 QBs all season (Ryan and Derek Carr).
  • In his last three games against the Buccaneers, Ryan has averaged 333 passing yards, 1.7 passing touchdowns, 0.7 interceptions, and 22.2 FanDuel points. The Falcons are 0-3 in those games, losing by a combined margin of 14 points.

Jameis Winston

  • Winston has eight total touchdowns (rushing + passing) on 13 opportunities within 10 yards of the end zone. That 62-percent success rate is best in the league among QBs with at least five opportunities.
  • The Falcons have allowed 23.1 QB FanDuel points per game, most in the league. Though, to be fair, they haven’t faced Brock Osweiler.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

 PittsburghBaltimore
Starting QBBen Roethlisberger (?)Joe Flacco
Spread3-3
Over/Under4343
Implied Total2023

Ben Roethlisberger

  • In the Steelers’ four wins, Roethlisberger has averaged 26.9 FanDuel points per game.
  • In the Steelers’ two losses, Roethlisberger has averaged 9.8 FanDuel points per game.

Joe Flacco

  • Flacco has just one top-12 week through eight games in 2016. He had five in 2015, despite playing only ten games.
  • The Steelers have had the least effective pass rush in the league, notching just eight sacks in seven games.

Dallas @ Cleveland

 DallasCleveland
Starting QBDak PrescottJosh McCown (?)
Spread-7.57.5
Over/Under48.548.5
Implied Total2820.5

Dak Prescott

  • Since 2000, only Cam NewtonAndrew Luck, and Jameis Winston have played at least eight games and averaged at least 250 passing yards in their rookie seasons. Prescott is averaging 253 passing yards per game through seven games.
  • Prescott has topped 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt in six straight games. Only Matt Ryan has a longer active streak.

Josh McCown

  • Since the beginning of 2015, McCown has averaged 19.9 FanDuel points in eight complete games. That would rank as QB9 in 2016 points per game.
  • The Cowboys have allowed just 17.0 FanDuel points per game, but they’ve faced only one top-12 QB (Aaron Rodgers).

Jacksonville @ Kansas City

 JacksonvilleKansas City
Starting QBBlake BortlesNick Foles
Spread9.5-9.5
Over/Under4646
Implied Total18.2527.75

Blake Bortles

  • Bortles has averaged 1.3 interceptions per game. Among QBs with at least four appearances, only Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick have more.
  • The Chiefs have averaged 1.6 interceptions per game, most in the league. The Cardinals are closest with 1.3 per game.

Nick Foles

  • Since the start of 2015, the Chiefs have averaged just 25 pass attempts in games where they were favored by a touchdown or more.
  • In 11 games with the Rams in 2015, Foles averaged 30 pass attempts per game. He never topped 20 FanDuel points, and he averaged 9.6 FanDuel points per game.

New York Jets @ Miami

 New York JetsMiami
Starting QBRyan FitzpatrickRyan Tannehill
Spread3.5-3.5
Over/Under4444
Implied Total20.2523.75

Ryan Fitzpatrick

  • In Week 8, Fitzpatrick became the first QB to score fewer than 15 FanDuel points against the Browns this season.
  • Fitzpatrick has also posted the lowest scoring weeks allowed by the Cardinals (6.2) (To be fair, Fitzpatrick was benched in the fourth quarter against Arizona.) and the Chiefs (3.7).

Ryan Tannehill

  • Tannehill has only eight opportunities on plays starting within 10 yards of the end zone. 30 QBs have had more chances, including Blaine GabbertSam BradfordBrock Osweiler, and Brian Hoyer.
  • Tannehill has finished outside the top-24 QBs three times through seven games. He finished outside the top 24 just once in 2015.

Detroit @ Minnesota

 DetroitMinnesota
Starting QBMatthew StaffordSam Bradford
Spread6-6
Over/Under4141
Implied Total17.523.5

Matthew Stafford

  • The Vikings haven’t allowed a 300-yard passing game in their last 24 contests. The next-longest active streak is Houston with 18 games.
  • Stafford has already faced two of the five stingiest defenses against QBs, Houston and Philadelphia. He averaged 210 passing yards, 2.0 passing touchdowns, and 16.2 FanDuel points against them. In all other games, he has averaged 289 passing yards, 2.0 passing touchdowns, and 21.1 FanDuel points.

Sam Bradford

  • Bradford has yet to reach 20 FanDuel points in a game this season. Among QBs with at least six starts, only Brock Osweiler has had a lower ceiling.

Philadelphia @ New York Giants

 PhiladelphiaNew York Giants
Starting QBCarson WentzEli Manning
Spread2.5-2.5
Over/Under4343
Implied Total20.2522.75

Carson Wentz

  • Wentz has two top-12 weeks and zero top-6 weeks through seven games.
  • Despite facing two top-6 QBs (Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees) and another in the top 12 (Dak Prescott), the Giants haven’t allowed a top-6 QB week, and they’ve surrendered just 14.5 FanDuel points per game.

Eli Manning

  • Manning had five top-6 weeks in 2015. He has zero through seven games in 2016.
  • Aside from his rookie season, Manning has thrown at least 20 touchdowns in every season but one. He is on pace for 18.3 in 2016.

Carolina @ Los Angeles

 CarolinaLos Angeles
Starting QBCam NewtonCase Keenum
Spread-33
Over/Under4545
Implied Total2421

Cam Newton

  • Newton’s 12.8 FanDuel points against the Cardinals in Week 8 marked his worst fantasy output since Week 1 of 2015.
  • Since the start of 2015, Newton has finished as a top-24 QB every week he’s played. Among QBs with at least 16 games over that span, Andy Dalton is the only other QB who hasn’t finished outside the top 24.

Case Keenum

  • Keenum has thrown 8 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Among QBs with at least 100 pass attempts, only Ryan Fitzpatrick has a worse touchdown-to-interception ratio.
  • Keenum is still averaging more FanDuel points per game (14.0) than Russell Wilson (13.3).

New Orleans @ San Francisco

 New OrleansSan Francisco
Starting QBDrew BreesColin Kaepernick
Spread-33
Over/Under5252
Implied Total27.524.5

Drew Brees

  • Brees has finished as a top 6-QB in four of seven games this season. Aside from Brees, only Tom Brady (three of four) has been top-6 in more than half his appearances.
  • Brees and Joe Flacco are tied for the league lead in pass attempts per game. They’re each on pace for 704 attempts.
  • The 49ers have faced the fewest pass attempts per game. They’re on pace to see just 512 attempts.

Colin Kaepernick

  • Among QBs with at least four appearances, Tyrod Taylor leads the league with 39.9 rushing yards per game. If Kaepernick rushes for zero yards in his next two games, he’ll be averaging 37.5 rushing yards per game.
  • The Saints have allowed one top-6 QB performance through seven games. In 2015, they allowed eight top-6 performances.

Indianapolis @ Green Bay

 IndianapolisGreen Bay
Starting QBAndrew LuckAaron Rodgers
Spread7-7
Over/Under5454
Implied Total23.530.5

Andrew Luck

  • Luck’s 1.6-percent interception rate is tied for the lowest in his career.
  • The Packers have allowed just two top-12 QB weeks. Only the Broncos and Vikings have allowed fewer.

Aaron Rodgers

  • Rodgers has three top-6 performances through seven weeks. He had four in all of 2015.
  • The Colts have allowed 20.0 FanDuel points per game, sixth most in the league. This despite not facing a single top-6 QB and only two top-12 QBs (Matthew Stafford and Blake Bortles).

Tennessee @ San Diego

 TennesseeSan Diego
Starting QBMarcus MariotaPhilip Rivers
Spread5-5
Over/Under4747
Implied Total2126

Marcus Mariota

  • Mariota has averaged 24.2 FanDuel points in Titans wins. He has averaged 12.6 FanDuel points per game in Titans losses.
  • Mariota is the only QB in the league with two weeks inside the top 6 and two weeks outside the top 24.

Philip Rivers

  • The Titans allowed just 12.6 FanDuel points per game for the first five weeks of the season. In the last three weeks, they’ve allowed 26.4 FanDuel points per game (to Cody KesslerAndrew Luck, and Blake Bortles).

Denver @ Oakland

 DenverOakland
Starting QBTrevor SiemianDerek Carr
Spread00
Over/Under43.543.5
Implied Total21.7521.75

Trevor Siemian

  • Aside from a 29-point outburst against Cincinnati in Week 3, Siemian has averaged 10.9 FanDuel points in his five complete games.

Derek Carr

  • Carr has four top-6 weeks through eight games. He had four in all of 2015.
  • The Broncos have allowed zero top-6 weeks and only one top-12 week (to Cam Newton in Week 1).

Buffalo @ Seattle

 BuffaloSeattle
Starting QBTyrod TaylorRussell Wilson
Spread7-7
Over/Under43.543.5
Implied Total18.2525.25

Tyrod Taylor

  • Taylor has topped 15 FanDuel points in seven straight games. That’s the longest active streak in the league.
  • Taylor has faced just one defense (the Jets) in the top 10 of most QB FanDuel points per game allowed.

Russell Wilson

  • Wilson has averaged 1 passing touchdown for every 362 passing yards. Only Joe Flacco has a lower touchdown-to-yard ratio.
  • In his career before 2016, Wilson had averaged 1 passing touchdown for every 132 passing yards.

Brian Malone

Brian has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade, and he made the jump to 2QB in 2013. If you follow him @BrianMaloneFF, he will at some point lecture you about longevity and positional baselines until you tell him to shut up.

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