PAVE Update: Week 13

PAVE Update: Week 13

Week 12 was great for the quarterback position, with 13 passers scoring more than 20 fantasy points and 25 scoring at least 15 points. If we use each quarterback’s average points per game in 2016 to derive total expected quarterback production for Week 12, the expectation would be 542.8 total points. Quarterbacks blew that number away by scoring 607.9 points in Week 12, thus outperforming expectations by 12% as a group. That margin tied the quarterbacks of Week 8 for the largest of the year. For comparison, wide receivers in Week 12 only exceeded expectations by 7%, running backs under-performed at -9%, and tight ends were right in line with expectations.

The top quarterback performances of the week compared to expectations could make up a streamer’s dream team:

As you can see, a ton of quarterbacks blew away expectations (which were rightfully low for most of the guys above). A lot of you might be thinking, “Of course these guys killed their expectations, they all had low expectations to begin with.” This is true, but I believe you are what your stats say you are. This is why I always use average points per game as my expectation. However, we normally would never “expect” the types of performances each of these quarterbacks put up in Week 12. Must’ve been something in the turkey.

Updating PAVE for Week 13

DEFENSEQBWRRBTE
NWE19%5%-9%12%
ATL17%-4%32%39%
CLE16%8%12%29%
DET16%5%5%21%
IND15%2%17%23%
SFO15%16%26%6%
TEN12%11%-7%3%
TAM10%-1%1%1%
DAL6%-2%-10%39%
MIA6%16%-11%20%
CAR5%2%-14%28%
OAK4%7%3%-1%
KAN3%2%-10%-36%
GNB3%10%-0%-7%
CIN2%-7%4%48%
WAS1%-12%18%30%
NYJ1%15%-6%7%
BUF0%3%-6%-18%
LAR-0%9%-8%6%
NOR-1%4%17%-6%
CHI-3%6%-8%-15%
PIT-4%-11%8%0%
SDG-6%-3%15%-6%
HOU-8%-12%4%-32%
JAX-8%-5%7%-22%
PHI-9%-10%1%-33%
BAL-10%4%-24%-17%
SEA-13%-1%-20%-2%
ARI-20%4%-23%-51%
MIN-20%-20%-10%-14%
NYG-21%-6%-1%-3%
DEN-30%-29%3%-26%

With 12 weeks of football in the books, water is starting to find its level in the PAVE ranks (Points Allowed Versus Expectation). New England (+19%) has finally officially become the top match-up for quarterbacks according to PAVE, fresh off the Ryan Fitzpatrick revitalization game. Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit, and Indianapolis round out the top five teams to use quarterbacks against, all yielding quarterback scores of over 15% above expectation.

Who to Consider in Week 13

I started this off with a recap of last week to prepare you for the names I am about to rattle off for Week 13…

Jared Goff gets to play New England (+19% PAVE) this week. It requires huge guts to actually start Goff in the last week of the regular season for most leagues, but I won’t fault you for playing the rookie in an undeniably plus match-up.

Alex Smith goes against Atlanta (+17% PAVE) in a game with a very respectable over/under of 49 total points. I bet Smith is on most streamers’ radars even though he is a road underdog this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick faces Indianapolis (+15% PAVE) in a game featuring an over/under of 49.5. Fitzpatrick’s outlook would be boosted if Andrew Luck returns to the field this week, making the Colts more competitive than they were with Scott Tolzien at the helm.

Last, I’ll throw Matt Barkley’s name into the fire. He faces San Francisco this week and is coming off a surprising 20.6-point performance. The Bears’ quarterback position has produced some sneaky good performances this season, including four top-12 and seven top-24 games. In Week 12, Barkley showed volume is king in fantasy football, with 53 pass attempts landing him a QB11. This is especially relevant this week where Barkley’s opponent the 49ers have played against the third-most snaps this season.

As always, I appreciate you taking the time to stop by and read my work. Find me on Twitter @FantasyProcess. I thoroughly enjoy the harassment that comes with recommending Matt Barkley in a do-or-die fantasy week.

Sean Fakete

Sean Fakete values three things above all else: his family, his dog, football, and attention to detail. He was a place kicker for a Division III college and ultimately went undrafted in the 2014 NFL Draft. Relegated to an analytics-heavy office job, his fantasy football hobby turned into an obsession. He lives a life driven by statistics but is committed to never taking anything too seriously.

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