Having already covered five of the top quarterbacks in this draft class, it’s time for me to move on to some names that fantasy players may not be nearly as familiar with. I’ll start today with Davis Webb of Cal.
What His Numbers Say
Here are Webb’s career numbers courtesy of Sports Reference:
Webb isn’t much of a runner, with -100 career rushing yards on his resume. I also put together Webb’s final season game log, complete with Football Outsiders S&P+ pass defense rank for his opponents:
|San Diego State||44||41||72||56.9||522||5||3||132.4|
Webb really leaves a lot to be desired from a statistical perspective. In his three seasons with at least 300 pass attempts, Webb’s top season in terms of AYA was 7.5… as a freshman. There has been zero growth in his production profile, a tremendous red flag for me since he also has not had an elite season.
Since 2000, there have been 108 quarterbacks to have a passing efficiency rating under 140 on 1,100 or more attempts — 57 percent of those signal callers went undrafted. Webb is currently rated as a second or third round prospect by CBS Sports, an outcome only seen by 10 percent of these prospects.
Even if we look at just the drafted quarterbacks, there were more in this cohort taken in rounds five through seven (22) than two through four (16). Even more alarming, only three quarterbacks in this group recorded a fantasy QB1 season who were not taken in the first round. All three of them (Nick Foles, Kyle Orton, and Derek Anderson) completed the feat just once.
Webb also struggled greatly against top-tier competition. In six games against teams ranked in the top 35 of S&P+, he completed less than 60 percent of his passes, and had a disastrous 5.8 AYA. Webb certainly does not impress, despite his expected draft position.
Player Comparison: Nick Foles
There are a bunch of similarities between Foles and Webb. Both were transfers to the Pac-12 after starting their careers elsewhere. Their career numbers are almost identical, though Foles had the better final season as you can see below.
Foles was a generally immobile third round pick, much like I would expect Webb to be based on the draft community.
Ideal Landing Spot: New York Jets
Foles’ brief amount of NFL success came when he was the starter for a high-octane offense. Now that Chip Kelly is out of the league, those places are few and far between. Instead, we probably want Webb to go somewhere he can play relatively quickly and accrue some value. The only team dysfunctional enough I think to both draft Webb relatively early and make him their starting quarterback is the New York Jets. In all honesty, I want nothing to do with him.
Current 2QB Fantasy Rookie Draft Projection: Late Second (Undrafted in 1QB Leagues)
Webb is a relatively highly ranked quarterback, which will make him draftable in 2QB formats. Depending on how high in the draft he ends up going, I could see him coming off the board at the end of round two. There is a very low floor here, especially should he end up going to a spot where he will definitely not see playing time. Should that happen, he could become a third-round rookie draft pick. In 1QB leagues, Webb shouldn’t be on anyone’s radar.
Webb is the worst quarterback studied so far, though it should be noted that he excelled at the NFL Combine. While he profiles well athletically, his final year AYA and overall production resume is simply too weak for me to get excited about. I would be extremely surprised to see Webb turn out to be a long-term startable fantasy quarterback.
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