If you’ve followed my work for any length of time then you know I’m obsessed with what RotoViz has dubbed YOLO QB. The basic premise of YOLO QB is that rushing quarterbacks are tremendously undervalued, and that teams should stockpile them as a cheap alternative to paying bums like Ryan Tannehill an exorbitant sum of money. Sometimes these quarterbacks even manage to be competent enough throwers to be valued as NFL-level starters. Think Tyrod Taylor. My favorite YOLO QB in this class is Joshua Dobbs.
What His Numbers Say
Here are Dobbs’ career statistics courtesy of Sports Reference:
I also compiled Dobbs’ final year game log and included the rank of the opposing pass defense based on Football Outsiders S&P+:
Dobbs faced the second-toughest schedule of any quarterback studied so far. His average opponent S&P+ of 39 falls just short of Deshaun Watson‘s 37. Speaking of Watson, Dobbs compares very favorably to the predicted first rounder.
Watson had a lot more passing volume than Dobbs this season, but the pair come very close in passer efficiency rating and AYA. Dobbs was also the more explosive runner and better Combine performer. This makes it perplexing why Watson would be an expected first rounder and Dobbs a sixth rounder, according to CBS Sports. At the least, Dobbs makes for a strong arbitrage play on Watson.
Dobbs falls into a very unique group of quarterbacks. There have only been 17 different signal-callers since 2000 to throw for at least 2,800 yards on 400 or less pass attempts, along with at least 700 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns (Colin Kaepernick and Tim Tebow each did it twice).
59 percent of these passers went in the seventh round or undrafted, a daunting statistic for Dobbs. However, 29 percent of the quarterbacks in this cohort went on to be fantasy QB1’s, a very strong number. The lowest any of those quarterbacks were drafted was the fourth round (Dak Prescott last year). This shouldn’t be too surprising, as a late draft position often makes it difficult for a quarterback to acquire playing time. If Dobbs can go somewhere in the first four rounds that will certainly help his chances of getting starts in the near future.
Player Comparison: Brett Hundley
Dobbs compares nicely to another signal-caller from the above cohort in Brett Hundley.
Hundley was ultimately a fifth round pick, which falls in line with expectation for Dobbs. And while he has yet to start an NFL game while playing behind Aaron Rodgers, he has flashed talent in his pre-season opportunities, averaging over 9.5 yards per attempt in those appearances. Hundley is one of my favorite dynasty stashes and that is precisely how I will approach Dobbs.
Ideal Landing Spot: Texans
If there is a spot in the NFL where Dobbs could compete for playing time with quality weapons, it’s Houston. The Texans boast two quality wideouts in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. They also boast a championship-caliber defense. Dobbs’ rushing threat alongside Lamar Miller would be very difficult to stop and he is probably already a better fit for the Texans than Tom Savage. Even if the team were to go out and get a veteran like Tony Romo, Dobbs would be just one play away from significant playing time.
CURRENT 2QB FANTASY ROOKIE DRAFT PROJECTION: Third Round (Undrafted IN 1QB LEAGUES)
By virtue of being a late NFL pick, Dobbs should not garner a ton of attention in rookie drafts. His rushing ability will make him interesting enough to keep out of the fourth, but it’s hard to argue that he belongs in the second round with such a quality skill position class and many questions about immediate playing time. In 1QB leagues, Dobbs belongs on the waiver wire.
I’m a huge fan of Dobbs and he is someone that I will be tracking heavily throughout the rest of the draft process. His dual-threat capabilities make him a strong arbitrage play on a first-round player like Watson and it’s unlikely his stock rises a ton, even if he ends up in a favorable landing spot. Dobbs is someone you will want to target in every draft.
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