How 2QB ADP Changes in 12-Team Leagues

How 2QB ADP Changes in 12-Team Leagues

During May we ran 10-team 2QB mock drafts in the hopes of getting enough interested drafters to create a reliable set of 2QB ADP data. We were pretty blown away when we filled 11 mock drafts.

You can find the ADP from those drafts on our redraft ADP page. We also know there are a variety of different ways to play 2QB leagues and leagues comprised of only ten teams aren’t for everybody. So we ran a couple of 12-team 2QB mock drafts.

Those 12-teamers came to an end recently and we pulled the data into chart form to see how drafters attack 2QB leagues made up of 12 teams. You can find the full May 12-team 2QB ADP data at the end of this post. We want to stress how the data is based off of only two drafts so it can’t be used as gospel. But it still does show a snapshot of how 2QB leagues of 10 teams and 12 teams differ.

Below I will highlight how quarterbacks were drafted in this set of 12-team mocks and compare the quarterback ADP from the 12-team mocks to the 10-team mocks. We hope this ADP data will be helpful during your draft preparations this offseason.

The Four Horsemen of the 2QB Apocalypse

RankNameADP12-team #1 12-team #2
1Newton, Cam1.512
2Rodgers, Aaron5.538
3Luck, Andrew693
4Wilson, Russell9.5145
5Brees, Drew232224
6Bortles, Blake283620
7Roethlisberger, Ben332640
8Brady, Tom33.54423
9Palmer, Carson475341
10Winston, Jameis53.56938
11Cousins, Kirk573777
12Rivers, Philip62.57649
13Carr, Derek67.57263
14Manning, Eli708060
15Romo, Tony72.58164
16Stafford, Matthew76.58667
17Mariota, Marcus78.510354
18Tannehill, Ryan8111151
19Ryan, Matt829569
20Dalton, Andy889185
21Taylor, Tyrod92.510679
22Flacco, Joe10011486
23Cutler, Jay102.5102103
24Fitzpatrick, Ryan103.511394
25Smith, Alex106.512390
26Osweiler, Brock108116100
27Goff, Jared115.5109122
28Bridgewater, Teddy118.5122115
29Griffin III, Robert124.5129120
30Wentz, Carson125139111
31Bradford, Sam131.5126137
32Lynch, Paxton131.5127136
33Sanchez, Mark144135153
34Gabbert, Blaine165.5175156
35Kaepernick, Colin166152180
36Smith, Geno179.5179180

Just like in our 10-team 2QB ADP data, a clear elite QB1 tier of four has established itself in the form of Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson. However, in this format, they each come with a first round ADP, compared to Newton being the only first round signal caller in the 10-team 2QB ADP.

As it was with the 10-team ADP data, there seems to be value in waiting on the position, as you can find viable QB1 and QB2 options late like Philip Rivers (QB12 – 62.5 ADP) and Alex Smith (QB25 – 106.5 ADP), for example.

Rivers last season finished as a QB1 in 12-team leagues eight times. Only Tom Brady (11), Blake Bortles (10), Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton (9) had more. Smith was not that far off with seven such QB1 (top-12) performances, but even more valuable in 2QB formats was that Smith finished outside the QB2 tier (top-24) only once all of last season.

Kings of the 2QB Castle

Well, maybe not kings, but there’s a higher demand for quarterbacks in the early part of 2QB leagues when 12 teams are involved, compared to only 10 teams. Here’s how the two league sizes differ in terms of quarterback ADP:

RankName12-Team ADP RankName10-Team ADP
1Newton, Cam1.51Newton, Cam7
2Rodgers, Aaron5.52Luck, Andrew11.7
3Luck, Andrew63Rodgers, Aaron12.1
4Wilson, Russell9.54Wilson, Russell17.9
5Brees, Drew235Brees, Drew31
6Bortles, Blake286Roethlisberger, Ben34.3
7Roethlisberger, Ben337Brady, Tom38.3
8Brady, Tom33.58Palmer, Carson43.6
9Palmer, Carson479Bortles, Blake52.9
10Winston, Jameis53.510Rivers, Philip56.6
11Cousins, Kirk5711Manning, Eli58.9
12Rivers, Philip62.512Carr, Derek62.8
13Carr, Derek67.513Winston, Jameis67.2
14Manning, Eli7014Romo, Tony70.6
15Romo, Tony72.515Mariota, Marcus72.5
16Stafford, Matthew76.516Dalton, Andy72.7
17Mariota, Marcus78.517Cousins, Kirk74.3
18Tannehill, Ryan8118Taylor, Tyrod75.4
19Ryan, Matt8219Ryan, Matt76.5
20Dalton, Andy8820Stafford, Matthew81.6
21Taylor, Tyrod92.521Tannehill, Ryan93.5
22Flacco, Joe10022Smith, Alex100.5
23Cutler, Jay102.523Cutler, Jay100.6
24Fitzpatrick, Ryan103.524Flacco, Joe108.7
25Smith, Alex106.525Fitzpatrick, Ryan109
26Osweiler, Brock10826Bridgewater, Teddy120.7
27Goff, Jared115.527Osweiler, Brock123
28Bridgewater, Teddy118.528Griffin III, Robert134.6
29Griffin III, Robert124.529Goff, Jared139.2
30Wentz, Carson12530Bradford, Sam139.9
31Bradford, Sam131.531Wentz, Carson140
32Lynch, Paxton131.532Kaepernick, Colin141.6
33Sanchez, Mark14433Sanchez, Mark143.5
34Gabbert, Blaine165.534Lynch, Paxton147.4
35Kaepernick, Colin16635Gabbert, Blaine148.7
36Smith, Geno179.536Garoppolo, Jimmy149.8

In 10-team 2QB leagues the depth of the position can still be used to your advantage, as only a max of 20 signal callers start each week. As of now, I would feel comfortable with the about 28 quarterbacks.

Not having to worry about missing out on usable weekly starters gives you less of an urgency to draft one or two of them early. However, the drafters in both of our 12-team mocks viewed the quarterback position more valuable than their 10-team counterparts.

Only Cam Newton was selected within the first ten picks on average in the 10-team 2QB ADP (7.0 overall), whereas four quarterbacks met that criteria in the 12-team ADP data: Newton (1.5), Rodgers (5.5), Luck (6), and Wilson (9.5).

However, only the true elite tier(s) of quarterbacks had much higher ADPs in the 12-team setting. Up to QB8, there’s a sizeable discrepancy in ADP, but after that it kind of tapers off. What this tells me is drafters are more concerned about grabbing an elite QB1 talent early in 12-team leagues compared to 10-team leagues and were willing to use a higher pick to ensure that happened.

Then we get back to the waiting game at the quarterback position, where the low-end QB1 and QB2 tiers were picked apart roughly the same in both sets of ADPs. Overall, it feels to me 2QBers this offseason have a high number of reliable QB2s to choose from that they are willing to wait on the position.

Beware of Variance

Before unleashing the full set of 12-team 2QB ADP I wanted to take a moment to tell you how careful you should be trusting data that is only two mocks deep. There’s a reason we also included where every player was drafted in both mocks and that’s to show you the variance between the two.

For example, even though Kirk Cousins has an overall ADP of 57, he was drafted with the 37th pick (QB8) in mock one but didn’t go off the board until pick 77 (QB19) in mock 2. That’s a difference of 40 picks. In mock one he was viewed as an elite QB1 option but in mock two he was a low-end QB2. That’s quite a sizeable difference in potential range of outcomes and shows how careful you should be when it comes to relying on small sample data points.

Without further ado, here’s the complete 12-team 2QB ADP data in full…

RankNamePositionADP12-team #1 12-team #2
1Newton, CamQB1.512
2Brown, AntonioWR426
3Beckham, OdellWR444
4Rodgers, AaronQB5.538
5Luck, AndrewQB693
6Jones, JulioWR657
7Hopkins, DeAndreWR8.589
8Bell, Le'VeonRB9711
9Wilson, RussellQB9.5145
10Gurley, ToddRB10191
11Green, A.J.WR11616
12Johnson, DavidRB121212
13Evans, MikeWR12.51015
14Gronkowski, RobTE131610
15Bryant, DezWR141117
16Elliott, EzekielRB141513
17Robinson, AllenWR171321
18Cooper, AmariWR17.52114
19Miller, LamarRB181719
20Peterson, AdrianRB20.52318
21Jeffery, AlshonWR231828
22Brees, DrewQB232224
23Charles, JamaalRB232026
24Allen, KeenanWR252822
25Watkins, SammyWR272529
26Thomas, DemaryiusWR27.52431
27Cooks, BrandinWR27.53025
28Bortles, BlakeQB283620
29Nelson, JordyWR28.52730
30Freeman, DevontaRB303327
31Marshall, BrandonWR32.52936
32Roethlisberger, BenQB332640
33Landry, JarvisWR33.53235
34Brady, TomQB33.54423
35Lacy, EddieRB343533
36Hilton, T.Y.WR343137
37Hyde, CarlosRB36.53934
38Cobb, RandallWR36.53439
39Ingram, MarkRB36.54132
40Martin, DougRB403842
41Edelman, JulianWR42.54243
42Reed, JordanTE444345
43Maclin, JeremyWR454644
44Benjamin, KelvinWR464052
45Palmer, CarsonQB475341
46McCoy, LeSeanRB47.54748
47Rawls, ThomasRB47.54550
48Murray, LataviusRB47.54847
49Matthews, JordanWR524955
50Baldwin, DougWR53.55453
51Winston, JameisQB53.56938
52Moncrief, DonteWR546246
53Anderson, C.J.RB545157
54Lewis, DionRB555258
55Olsen, GregTE565656
56Tate, GoldenWR565062
57Cousins, KirkQB573777
58Forte, MattRB595959
59Floyd, MichaelWR615765
60Rivers, PhilipQB62.57649
61Coleman, CoreyWR635571
62Treadwell, LaquonWR655872
63Carr, DerekQB67.57263
64Jones, MattRB686076
65White, KevinWR686175
66Manning, EliQB708060
67Mathews, RyanRB726678
68Romo, TonyQB72.58164
69Langford, JeremyRB73.56483
70Ajayi, JayRB747573
71Crabtree, MichaelWR74.58366
72Murray, DeMarcoRB74.58861
73Fitzgerald, LarryWR74.56881
74Johnson, DukeRB75.56388
75Brown, JohnWR76.57182
76Stafford, MatthewQB76.58667
77Hurns, AllenWR788274
78Mariota, MarcusQB78.510354
79Woodhead, DannyRB78.58770
80Stewart, JonathanRB78.57780
81Parker, DeVanteWR79.57089
82Hill, JeremyRB80.57487
83Tannehill, RyanQB8111151
84Sanders, EmmanuelWR81.57984
85Ryan, MattQB829569
86Kelce, TravisTE8410068
87Decker, EricWR84.567102
88Dalton, AndyQB889185
89Yeldon, T.J.RB9073107
90Prosise, C.J.RB91.59093
91Gore, FrankRB91.578105
92Taylor, TyrodQB92.510679
93Henry, DerrickRB9484104
94Abdullah, AmeerRB94.59495
95Bernard, GiovaniRB94.59792
96Gordon, MelvinRB97.59897
97Lockett, TylerWR98.565132
98Riddick, TheoRB98.596101
99Fleener, CobyTE9910791
100Flacco, JoeQB10011486
101Cutler, JayQB102.5102103
102Green-Beckham, DorialWR10385121
103Fitzpatrick, RyanQB103.511394
104Snead, WillieWR10492116
105Jackson, DeSeanWR10689123
106Smith, AlexQB106.512390
107Eifert, TylerTE106.599114
108Osweiler, BrockQB108116100
109Shepard, SterlingWR108.593124
110Diggs, StefonWR109112106
111Green, LadariusTE11012199
112Walker, DelanieTE110108112
113Dixon, KennethRB114.5120109
114Goff, JaredQB115.5109122
115Ivory, ChrisRB117.5101134
116Doctson, JoshWR117.5105130
117Bridgewater, TeddyQB118.5122115
118Ertz, ZachTE119130108
119Sims, CharlesRB120.5115126
120Smith, TorreyWR120.5131110
121Perriman, BreshadWR123117129
122Ebron, EricTE12314898
123Wheaton, MarkusWR123118128
124Griffin III, RobertQB124.5129120
125Wentz, CarsonQB125139111
126Blount, LeGarretteRB126.5140113
127Benjamin, TravisWR126.515796
128Austin, TavonWR127.5110145
129Booker, DevontaeRB129141117
130Jones, MarvinWR130.5142119
131Bradford, SamQB131.5126137
132Lynch, PaxtonQB131.5127136
133Crowell, IsaiahRB132124140
134Williams, KarlosRB132146118
135Thomas, MichaelWR134133135
136Barnidge, GaryTE134143125
137McKinnon, JerickRB136134138
138Foster, ArianRB139132146
139Jennings, RashadRB140.5104177
140Sanchez, MarkQB144135153
141Thomas, JuliusTE144.5145144
142Agholor, NelsonWR146.5119174
143Cooper, PharohWR148.5156141
144Gates, AntonioTE148.5150147
145Forsett, JustinRB152165139
146Watson, BenTE152.5125180
147Smith, SteveWR152.5155150
148Coleman, TevinRB153.5180127
149Smallwood, WendellRB154128180
150Boyd, TylerWR155177133
151Howard, JordanRB155.5163148
152Henry, HunterTE155.5180131
153Smelter, DeAndreWR156137175
154Williams, DeAngeloRB156149163
155Bennett, MartellusTE157154160
156Graham, JimmyTE157.5173142
157Drake, KenyanRB158136180
158Aiken, KamarWR158164152
159Allen, DwayneTE159138180
160Jackson, VincentWR161.5153170
161Garrett, KeyarrisWR161.5180143
162Wright, KendallWR162144180
163Perkins, PaulRB163169157
164Coates, SammieWR163.5147180
165Carroo, LeonteWR164.5180149
166Cook, JaredTE165.5151180
167Starks, JamesRB165.5180151
168Gabbert, BlaineQB165.5175156
169Kaepernick, ColinQB166152180
170Williams, JonathanRB167180154
171Miller, ZachTE167.5180155
172Funchess, DevinWR168178158
173Allen, JavoriusRB169158180
174Gordon, JoshWR169.5172167
175Lasco, DanielRB169.5180159
176West, CharcandrickRB169.5159180
177Sproles, DarrenRB170160180
178Ervin, TylerRB170.5161180
179Johnson, ChrisRB170.5180161
180Powell, BilalRB171162180
181Mitchell, MalcolmWR171180162
182Peake, CharoneWR172180164
183Washington, DeAndreRB172.5180165
184Spiller, C.J.RB173166180
185Fuller, WillWR173180166
186Quick, BrianWR173.5167180
187Davis, MikeRB174168180
188Witten, JasonTE174180168
189Crowder, JamisonWR174.5180169
190Sanu, MohamedWR175170180
191Seferian-Jenkins, AustinTE175.5171180
192Miller, BraxtonWR175.5180171
193Collins, AlexRB176180172
194Vereen, ShaneRB176.5180173
195Dorsett, PhillipWR176.5174179
196Hightower, TimRB178176180
197Garcon, PierreWR178180176
198Sharpe, TajaeWR179180178
199Smith, GenoQB179.5179180
200Strong, JaelenWR180180180

Salvatore Stefanile

Salvatore Stefanile is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) and has been playing fantasy football since his high school days. He is a proponent of 2QB fantasy football leagues and his work has been featured on XN Sports, RotoViz, and Rotoworld. His writing on 2QB fantasy football leagues earned him the FSWA award for 'Best Fantasy Football On-Going Series' in 2013. He earned a second FSWA nomination in 2015. You can follow him on Twitter @2QBFFB

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