#SFB480 ADP and You

#SFB480 ADP and You

The #SFB480 is two days away and the superflex fantasy football community is frothing at the mouth in anticipation to hand in their draft cards. … With the variety of scoring rules and deep starting roster requirements, it’s clear there is no one set draft strategy for this year’s #SFB480.

Want to go Zero-RB? Well, the Scott Fish Bowl is only 0.5 PPR for wide receivers, and running backs are awarded a bonus of 0.25 points per carry. Although, you can start up to seven wide-outs, if you so choose.

Don’t care about drafting tight ends early and often? Mr. Fish decided this year’s bowl will be TE-premium, making tight end receptions worth a full PPR point (the only position with such a scoring bonus). Oh, yeah, and you can start up to five tight ends.

Don’t think superflex means 2QB? Of the 22 scoring leaders on a points per game basis in last year’s #SFB360, 17 of them were quarterbacks. The other five were running backs. And, don’t forget that the 0.25 PPC scoring rule is applicable to quarterbacks, too.

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What makes the #SFB480 so much fun and unique is the number of draft strategies you can theoretically employ. 480 combatants enter the ring. But only one will be victorious when it’s all said and done.

tyson

479 draft strategies will be wrong. The odds aren’t in your favor, or mine, that we’ll be this year’s Derek Myers (#SFB360 champ). But that’s not going to stop us from thinking that we have the winning strategy.

You Can Never Be Too Prepared

We here at TwoQBs have ramped up our #SFB480 coverage in hopes of helping you field a competitive team. And maybe even the winning team. #InsertFingersCrossedEmoji …

#SFB480 ADP Advantages and Disadvantages

But what might be the biggest tool we published to help you prepare for ‘The Superflex Draft Event of the Season’ is our #SFB480 ADP data, which is based on mock drafts created by Robert Marino and TJ Hernandez.

You can’t live and die by ADP when drafting, just like you can’t live and die by rankings, but ADP is a helpful tool when it comes to draft preparation. If we’re being honest, with 480 teams involved, it’s hard to base your entire strategy off of a list of where players are drafted on average. What if you’re in the one division where a team drafts three straight quarterbacks with their first three picks? Or what if someone decides to go TE-crazy?

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Anything can and will happen in the #SFB480, which is why I wanted to caution you about basing your entire draft strategy on ADP data alone. Having said that, it can be useful if utilized the right way and if you don’t rely on it to make all your picks. I wanted to take a look at the #SFB480 ADP to see if we can use it to look into the future of what your (or my) #SFB480 squadron could look like.

The Bots Are Winning

I’m picking from the 1.12 slot and below is what my roster would look like based solely off our #SFB480 ADP data. (You can use the data to field a team for any of the other 11 draft slots).

Pick Overall ADPPlayer
1.1212Dez Bryant
2.0113Allen Robinson
3.1236Sammy Watkins
4.0137Jordan Reed
5.1260Duke Johnson
6.0161Jameis Winston
7.1284Allen Hurns
8.0185Kevin White
9.12108Gary Barnidge
10.01109Torrey Smith
11.12132Jared Goff
12.01133Tevin Coleman
13.12156Bilal Powell
14.01157Chris Hogan
15.12180Wendall Smallwood
16.01181Pierre Garcon
17.12204CJ Spiller
18.01205Chris Thompson
19.12228Tyler Higbee
20.01229Jeff Heuerman
21.12252Tyler Montgomery
22.01253Tyler Kroft

Post ADP-draft, this is what my #SFB480 roster would look like from the 1.12 spot:

QB1Jameis Winston
RB1Duke Johnson
RB2Tevin Coleman
WR1Dez Bryant
WR2Allen Robinson
WR3Sammy Watkins
TE1Jordan Reed
SuperflexJared Goff
FLEX1Allen Hurns
FLEX2Torrey Smith
FLEX3Gary Barnidge
BenchKevin White
Bilal Powell
Chris Hogan
Wendall Smallwood
Pierre Garcon
CJ Spiller
Chris Thompson
Tyler Higbee
Jeff Heuerman
Tyler Montgomery
Tyler Kroft

There are a few things I see as problematic with this roster…

First, with WRs receiving only .5 points per reception and running backs earning a bonus of .25 points per carry I would be hard-pressed to start the draft with three straight wide receivers and a tight end.

With Lamar Miller’s ADP at 16.1, I could see myself taking him with one of my first two picks, for example. Miller now finds himself in an offense where he will be the supposed bell cow and will most likely be involved in the passing game. Having a solid foundation at running back could be a key strategy in #SFB480 drafts this year.

Something else to keep in mind if you’re picking at 1.12 is if Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or Rob Gronkowski are on the board. Their ADPs dictates they might be available in the late first/early second, and going some combination of QB-QB or QB-TE at the turn is a strategy worth considering.

Because of the .25 PPC scoring rule, there’s a high likelihood of Wilson being the second quarterback drafted after Cam Newton in the SFB this year. And don’t forget, 17 of the 22 top scorers on a PPG basis were quarterbacks in the #SFB360 and you can (probably should) start two signal callers each week.

As for TE early, according to Scott Smith’s research: “Based upon 2015 numbers, if you combined WRs and TEs, 8 of the top-24 finishes would have belonged to TEs. Rob Gronkowski, Delanie Walker, Jordan Reed and Gary Barnidge would have finished 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th under the #SFB480 scoring in 2015.”

The Scott Fish Bowl is not for the faint-hearted.

In Conclusion

I could go round-by-round and list off which players I would pick and where I differ with the ADP drafted squad I presented but I don’t really feel like laying out a blueprint to my #SFB480 draft strategy for my opponents. I’m already in a division up against last year’s #SFB360 winner, Derek Myers.

But taking a look at what your #SFB480 team could look like based on ADP picks will put you in the right drafting mindset and challenge your belief on certain players. If there’s a player you like but feel you might have to reach for, your best bet is to dive in head first and draft him. He probably won’t be available at your next pick. And knowing which players are generally available at which draft slot gives you a chance to prepare yourself for when you’re on the clock each pick. Studying the ADP data should ensure you’re not left scrambling when the eight-hour timer starts (and will help cut down the number of people on Twitter urging you to make your pick).

hunger_games

Personal preference, customized projections, and draft tendencies will differ from player to player. And with 480 people drafting, we’re going to see a wide range of drafting styles. Be prepared.

Salvatore Stefanile

Salvatore Stefanile is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) and has been playing fantasy football since his high school days. He is a proponent of 2QB fantasy football leagues and his work has been featured on XN Sports, RotoViz, and Rotoworld. His writing on 2QB fantasy football leagues earned him the FSWA award for 'Best Fantasy Football On-Going Series' in 2013. He earned a second FSWA nomination in 2015. You can follow him on Twitter @2QBFFB

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