#SFB480 ADP and You
The #SFB480 is two days away and the superflex fantasy football community is frothing at the mouth in anticipation to hand in their draft cards. … With the variety of scoring rules and deep starting roster requirements, it’s clear there is no one set draft strategy for this year’s #SFB480.
Want to go Zero-RB? Well, the Scott Fish Bowl is only 0.5 PPR for wide receivers, and running backs are awarded a bonus of 0.25 points per carry. Although, you can start up to seven wide-outs, if you so choose.
Don’t care about drafting tight ends early and often? Mr. Fish decided this year’s bowl will be TE-premium, making tight end receptions worth a full PPR point (the only position with such a scoring bonus). Oh, yeah, and you can start up to five tight ends.
Don’t think superflex means 2QB? Of the 22 scoring leaders on a points per game basis in last year’s #SFB360, 17 of them were quarterbacks. The other five were running backs. And, don’t forget that the 0.25 PPC scoring rule is applicable to quarterbacks, too.
What makes the #SFB480 so much fun and unique is the number of draft strategies you can theoretically employ. 480 combatants enter the ring. But only one will be victorious when it’s all said and done.
479 draft strategies will be wrong. The odds aren’t in your favor, or mine, that we’ll be this year’s Derek Myers (#SFB360 champ). But that’s not going to stop us from thinking that we have the winning strategy.
You Can Never Be Too Prepared
We here at TwoQBs have ramped up our #SFB480 coverage in hopes of helping you field a competitive team. And maybe even the winning team. #InsertFingersCrossedEmoji …
- Scott Smith provided us with ten tips to navigate the #SFB480.
- Joshua Lake studied last year’s top ten finishers to glean lessons we can takeaway to prepare for this year’s draft.
- Scott also listed his top five overvalued and undervalued #SFB480 players.
- We also posted 35+ (so far) interviews with #SFB480 participants conducted by Zach Law. You might find some handy draft strategy tips if you read them all.
- If you’re into podcasts, the latest 2QB Experience Podcast episode dedicated a segment to the #SFB480 and featured the creator and master of the Scott Fish Bowl, the one and only Mr. Scott Fish.
#SFB480 ADP Advantages and Disadvantages
But what might be the biggest tool we published to help you prepare for ‘The Superflex Draft Event of the Season’ is our #SFB480 ADP data, which is based on mock drafts created by Robert Marino and TJ Hernandez.
You can’t live and die by ADP when drafting, just like you can’t live and die by rankings, but ADP is a helpful tool when it comes to draft preparation. If we’re being honest, with 480 teams involved, it’s hard to base your entire strategy off of a list of where players are drafted on average. What if you’re in the one division where a team drafts three straight quarterbacks with their first three picks? Or what if someone decides to go TE-crazy?
Anything can and will happen in the #SFB480, which is why I wanted to caution you about basing your entire draft strategy on ADP data alone. Having said that, it can be useful if utilized the right way and if you don’t rely on it to make all your picks. I wanted to take a look at the #SFB480 ADP to see if we can use it to look into the future of what your (or my) #SFB480 squadron could look like.
The Bots Are Winning
I’m picking from the 1.12 slot and below is what my roster would look like based solely off our #SFB480 ADP data. (You can use the data to field a team for any of the other 11 draft slots).
Post ADP-draft, this is what my #SFB480 roster would look like from the 1.12 spot:
There are a few things I see as problematic with this roster…
First, with WRs receiving only .5 points per reception and running backs earning a bonus of .25 points per carry I would be hard-pressed to start the draft with three straight wide receivers and a tight end.
With Lamar Miller’s ADP at 16.1, I could see myself taking him with one of my first two picks, for example. Miller now finds himself in an offense where he will be the supposed bell cow and will most likely be involved in the passing game. Having a solid foundation at running back could be a key strategy in #SFB480 drafts this year.
— Kevin Cole (@Cole_Kev) June 14, 2016
Something else to keep in mind if you’re picking at 1.12 is if Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or Rob Gronkowski are on the board. Their ADPs dictates they might be available in the late first/early second, and going some combination of QB-QB or QB-TE at the turn is a strategy worth considering.
Because of the .25 PPC scoring rule, there’s a high likelihood of Wilson being the second quarterback drafted after Cam Newton in the SFB this year. And don’t forget, 17 of the 22 top scorers on a PPG basis were quarterbacks in the #SFB360 and you can (probably should) start two signal callers each week.
As for TE early, according to Scott Smith’s research: “Based upon 2015 numbers, if you combined WRs and TEs, 8 of the top-24 finishes would have belonged to TEs. Rob Gronkowski, Delanie Walker, Jordan Reed and Gary Barnidge would have finished 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th under the #SFB480 scoring in 2015.”
The Scott Fish Bowl is not for the faint-hearted.
I could go round-by-round and list off which players I would pick and where I differ with the ADP drafted squad I presented but I don’t really feel like laying out a blueprint to my #SFB480 draft strategy for my opponents. I’m already in a division up against last year’s #SFB360 winner, Derek Myers.
But taking a look at what your #SFB480 team could look like based on ADP picks will put you in the right drafting mindset and challenge your belief on certain players. If there’s a player you like but feel you might have to reach for, your best bet is to dive in head first and draft him. He probably won’t be available at your next pick. And knowing which players are generally available at which draft slot gives you a chance to prepare yourself for when you’re on the clock each pick. Studying the ADP data should ensure you’re not left scrambling when the eight-hour timer starts (and will help cut down the number of people on Twitter urging you to make your pick).
Personal preference, customized projections, and draft tendencies will differ from player to player. And with 480 people drafting, we’re going to see a wide range of drafting styles. Be prepared.