Editor’s Note: This guest post was written by Scott Smith. You can follow him on Twitter @ScottSmith610 and read his fantasy football writing on RotoViz. …
On Tuesday, Scott provided us with ten tips to navigate the #SFB480. Today he lists five overvalued players you should consider avoiding in #SFB480 drafts when comparing their #SFB480 ADP to aggregate projections from a number of fantasy sites…
1. DeAngelo Williams (Agg. Rank – 211, ADP – 146.9)
DeAngelo Williams was a league winner for many last year. Unfortunately for Williams his prospects are directly tied to the health of one of the best RBs in the league. In games where Le’Veon Bell was healthy, Williams only saw 3.67 carries and one target. Four touches per game is not enough for a RB to have stand alone value and be an asset to your team. Using what equates to a late 12th round pick is a hefty premium to pay for insurance.
2. Theo Riddick (Agg. Rank – 132, ADP – 115.7)
Theo Riddick is among the most passing game dependent RBs when it comes to fantasy points. In 2015, Riddick only managed to accumulate 43 touches on the ground. He is a player who saw 99 targets during a 2015 season in which rookie RB backfield mate Ameer Abdullah struggled. With Zack Zenner also vying for early down work, Riddick is a player who’s ceiling is capped. Riddick should once again be a star in PPR league formats, but in the #SFB480 his dependence on reception points kills some of his allure.
3. Karlos Williams (Agg. Rank – 154, ADP – 126.9)
Karlos Williams burst onto the scene like a wrecking ball in relief of an injured LeSean McCoy. While Williams was ultra-productive in a limited role with the Bills in his rookie season, it will be hard to project his usage in 2016 with a healthy McCoy. Adding to the problem is Buffalo’s drafting of talented Arkansas RB Jonathan Williams. The fact Karlos reportedly showed up to OTAs out of shape along with likely touchdown regression is also cause for concern.
4. Kevin White (Agg. Rank – 100, ADP – 80.9)
Kevin White’s 2015 rookie season was non-existent. For all intensive purposes 2016 is his rookie season. Using a seventh round pick on a player who hasn’t played a down in the NFL, is coming off of injury, and has some question marks on his college resume is a risky proposition. We also need to take into account Alshon Jeffery, who has proven to be a target hog in the Chicago offense. Taking a player like Corey Coleman (91.4 ADP), who is in a similar position, but with less competition for targets is a better value. Give me the player with the better game scripts over ten picks later.
5. Ben Roethlisberger (Agg. Rank – 58, ADP – 35.5)
Big Ben makes this list not on the merit of his play, but rather his overvalued ADP in relation to the players around him. As Matthew Berry pointed out, Roethlisberger has never had a season with 4300 yards and 33 touchdowns. Drew Brees has done that for eight straight seasons. The suspension of Martavis Bryant and the healthy return of Le’Veon Bell could also lead to the Steelers passing less in 2016. While making this list is no indictment on Roethlisberger’s play, there are other QBs with very similar projections that are better values a full two rounds later.
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