#SFB7 and Aaron Rodgers
This year’s Scott Fish Bowl begins drafting on Monday, July 10th, and most everyone knows where they’ll be drafting and who they want to target with their first round pick. But slow your roll, playa. We need to look a bit deeper into the way the #SFB7 is scored, and how it affects who you’ll be picking.
Three quick heads ups, for those who need the bullet points:
- This is not PPR. Instead, you get bonus points for players who make first downs.
- Tight ends get a bonus 1.5 points for each receiving first down or rushing first down.
- This is SUPERFLEX so you can start more than one quarterback.
That’s right. Superflex! You came to the right place! This is what we do! As we say in the deep South, “hold my beer”, because this might be a ride you want to strap in for.
Check out last year’s stats for this scoring format here. Looking at the 2016 points scored in the #SFB480, Aaron Rodgers scored 458.42 points. That’s 37 points more than David Johnson, and 77 points more than the second-highest scoring running back, Ezekiel Elliott. And yet, this year most everyone wants to draft Elliott well before they draft their first quarterback.
I recently participated in two mock drafts with the folks at ADP Mercenaries (@dynastyslow, @ZachhhVK, @MVtweetshere, & @DynastyJosh) to prepare for the #SFB7. And looking at SFB7 ADP on our site and at ADP Mercenaries, the top three running backs go first nearly all the time, followed by (sometimes) Rodgers and then the top wide receivers. Drafting anyone before Rodgers would seem like a mistake then, as the point of the game is to score the most points. But the scarcity of top running backs and the wealth of top scoring quarterbacks would seem to lead one toward drafting a top running back in the top-three if you can, and then drafting two quarterbacks when the draft comes back around to you.
You need to get down to the 33rd player last year to get to the top wide receiver in scoring. That was Mike Evans at (hold your breath when I say this) nearly 200 points less than Rodgers. It’s okay. Take a step back and warm up. I’m sure that sent a chill through PPR enthusiasts everywhere.
Mike Evans actually scored less than the top scoring tight end, Travis Kelce, but only by seven points. So tight ends and wide receivers seem to be on equal footing, unless you also look at the scarcity of the top tight ends. There are only about six or seven tights you can draft with the hope of scoring more than 200 points in the SFB scoring format, while there are 32 number one wide receivers on a team.
The Argument Against the First Round Running Backs in the #SFB7
David Johnson’s quarterback is getting older and teams are going to key on Johnson to force Carson Palmer to throw. Le’Veon Bell’s quarterback is falling apart and close to announcing his retirement, and who knows if Bell will make it to the regular season without suspension? Speaking of possible suspension, have you met Ezekiel Elliott?
As for Rodgers, he gives you an obvious point advantage if he has a fully healthy team (including Jordy Nelson) and a pass-catching running back in Ty Montgomery. David Johnson could possibly score you nearly enough points as Rodgers if you draft him instead, but then you’d be handicapped against the person who drafts the actual highest-scoring player in the game.
The highest point scorers by position in last year’s Scott Fish Bowl were…
Aaron Rodgers (458.42), Drew Brees (424.12), Matt Ryan (415.12), Andrew Luck (395.16)
David Johnson (421.40), Ezekiel Elliott (381.40), Le’Veon Bell (335.40), DeMarco Murray (314.90)
Mike Evans (261.60), Antonio Brown (255.30), Jordy Nelson (248.10), Odell Beckham (244.20)
Travis Kelce (268.70), Greg Olsen (252.10), Jimmy Graham (223.40), Kyle Rudolph (207.30)
In other words…
Aaron Rodgers creates his own scarcity argument, and points-wise, it’s not even close. If you can get him and don’t, you’re missing an obvious advantage week-to-week. Games are won and lost on total points, not points by position.
There’s only one Rodgers in the game. If he and his group stay healthy and continue at the pace they had last year, you need to get him at all costs and then focus on running backs and a second quarterback in the next few rounds. You can argue that maybe another signal caller (Cam Newton who scored 494.36 in 2015 or Drew Brees with 424.12 in 2016) will step up this year and score more than Rodgers, but a healthy Rodgers is consistent, fully armed in pass receiving options, and Green Bay has the tenth-best strength of schedule for quarterbacks in weeks 1-16 for 2017, per FFToolbox.
Don’t draft a RB, WR or TE in front of him. Rodgers is quite simply your safest bet for scoring more points than everyone else in the #SFB7.
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