Fantasy Aces Value Plays: Week 1
After months of drafting, Week 1 of the NFL regular season is here, which also means Week 1 of the 2QB DFS season is here. … Below are a few Week 1 Fantasy Aces value plays.
Matthew Stafford at Colts, $6,250
Stafford is priced as the QB18 this week on Fantasy Aces, but he is priced eighth on DraftKings and 16th on FanDuel. Detroit is currently a four point underdog to the Colts, but the line opened at 5.5 and has been moving towards the Lions ever since. The total on this game is 51 points, tied for the highest on the slate, and Detroit’s 23.5 implied team total is slightly higher than their 2015 scoring average of 22.4. Last season, the Colts were top-12 in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Stafford is a clear QB1 priced as a mid-range QB2.
Dak Prescott vs. Giants, $4,500
Prescott is the #OnlyPlay this week at quarterback, and he absolutely needs to be in your cash lineups this weekend at minimum price. The rookie is starting against a defense that was 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA last season, and has shown that he is a threat to score both through the air and on the ground this preseason (five passing and two rushing touchdowns). This is a pretty open/shut case.
Christine Michael vs. Dolphins, $4,200
Michael is incredibly low priced this week with the expectation he will be a backup in some capacity for Thomas Rawls. However, the Seahawks are a 10.5-point favorite against Miami, and could win this game fairly easily. I have a hard time believing they would risk Rawls’ health too much in a game they have firmly in hand, especially since it has taken him so long to recover from his ankle injury last year. Michael could see a ton of work in this one, and it comes at an RB44 price tag.
Spencer Ware vs. Chargers, $4,000
Copy and paste what I just said about Michael and Rawls and replace it with Ware and Jamaal Charles. There have been recent reports suggesting Charles may not even play in Week 1, and if he does, he may not start. Kansas City is a seven-point favorite against the Chargers, and San Diego was 31st in rushing DVOA last season. Ware is priced outside of the top-50.
Sammy Watkins at Ravens, $4,750
Watkins is priced as the WR28 for Week 1, despite finishing the 2015 season as a top-10 receiver in fantasy points per game. Baltimore was 27th last season against deep passes, per Football Outsiders, and Watkins averaged 16.7 air yards per target. Watkins’ quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, led the league in deep ball completion percentage. His volatility usually leaves him relegated to a GPP play, but I think at this kind of value, you can also use Watkins in cash games.
Tajae Sharpe vs. Vikings, $3,000
Sharpe is a starting wide receiver at minimum price, which is basically all you need to know about the kind of value he can provide. And considering how he has been used relative to his teammates, I don’t think it is outlandish to consider him the top receiver target in the offense for Marcus Mariota. DFS is all about opportunity, and Sharpe provides 6-8 targets at below market pricing.
Dwayne Allen vs. Lions, $4,200
Remember that 51-point total game Stafford was playing in? Allen plays on the favored side of that contest, and Indy’s 27.5 implied team total is the best on the slate. In the four career games he has played without Coby Fleener, Allen has compiled 26 targets, and in the last season Andrew Luck was fully healthy (2014), he scored eight touchdowns on just 50 targets. Detroit was 29th against the TE in DVOA in 2015. Allen is priced as the TE19 this week, but is a clear TE1.
Vance McDonald vs. Rams, $3,500
McDonald is priced like a backup for a terrible football team, but he is at least a starter on a terrible football team that will play fast. The Chip Kelly offense brings volume to the table, and that is directly reflected in the implied team total for the 49ers, which is 6.1 points above their 2015 scoring average, despite almost identical personnel. Especially with the loss of Bruce Ellington to IR, expect most of the short-to-intermediate targets to go McDonald’s way.
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