Fantasy Aces Value Plays: Week 10
And just like that, we’re into the double-digit weeks. It’s unbelievable to me how fast the season goes by. And yes, I know I say that every week here. Just be thankful that we still have NFL DFS to play, kick back, and enjoy some value picks for Week 10 over at Fantasy Aces.
Dak Prescott at Steelers, $6,200
Dak is the QB17 this week on Fantasy Aces, but he comes in as the QB9 on FanDuel and QB11 on DraftKings. That is a discount that should intrigue us. Prescott has also been outstanding this season, scoring at least 19.75 points in every game this season since his Week 1 disappointment and going for at least 26 points in each of his last two games. This matchup with Pittsburgh has a 50.5 Vegas over/under, and Dallas is a 2.5-point underdog. This game should be competitive, and that means Dak should be heavily involved in the offense.
Carson Wentz vs. Falcons, $5,950
Here’s a brief snapshot of how Atlanta has done against quarterbacks this season.
The Falcons have allowed eleven top-24 QB fantasy performances. In nine weeks.
— Brian Malone (@BrianMaloneFF) November 7, 2016
Currently, Wentz is priced as the QB23 on Fantasy Aces. That seems to be his absolute floor against a team that is so poor against signal-callers. The Falcons have given up at least 300 yards or four touchdowns in three straight games, and this matchup currently has a 50.5-point Vegas over/under.
Darren Sproles vs. Falcons, $4,650
Sproles has seen at least 80 percent of Eagles snaps in two straight games, and it looks to be pretty evident that he is their lead ball-carrier right now. In that time, he has accumulated 28 rush attempts and 16 targets, making Sproles one of the more heavily-utilized running backs in football. The Falcons ranked 21st in Football Outsiders rush DVOA heading into Week 9, and 26th against running backs in the passing game. I would imagine that a large portion of the Eagle game plan will run through Sproles, and that should lead to a bevvy of points at a cheap price.
Robert Kelley vs. Vikings, $3,700
This is not an ideal matchup, but the price here for Kelley is outstanding considering his promotion within the offense.
Gruden says for now he thinks Rob Kelley to will get bulk of carries and Jones "will have to earn his way back."
— Mike Jones (@MikeJonesWaPo) November 7, 2016
Minnesota has been more vulnerable than usual on the ground lately, surrendering 223 rushing yards on 40 carries (5.6 YPC) to lead backs over the past two weeks. Kelley could run better than we expect against this front, and has a shot at a short touchdown on the cheap.
Stefon Diggs at Redskins, $4,750
Diggs has accumulated 27 targets over his past two games, and he is the clear focal point of this passing game when healthy. Heading into Week 9, Diggs had played over 50 percent of his snaps in the slot according to Pro Football Focus. His mobility around the formation should keep Diggs safe from the clutches of Josh Nor-meh-n and allow him to pay off this absurdly cheap price tag.
J.J. Nelson vs. 49ers, $3,750
Fantasy Aces has not properly priced in the promotion that Nelson received heading into the bye week.
BA: J.J. Nelson has become one of the starters at wide receiver.
— Mike Jurecki (@mikejurecki) October 31, 2016
Nelson has more receiving yards than any other Cardinals wideout over the past two games, and he has accumulated 19 targets over that span. Arizona has by far the highest Vegas implied team total of the week at 30.75. San Francisco is inside the top 10 for fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, partially as a result of their league-leading pace. I would be willing to pay at least $500 more than this price for Nelson, making his current cost a steal.
Antonio Gates vs. Dolphins, $4,100
I’m not really sure what Gates has to do to see a price increase, but it’s pretty remarkable that he is still priced outside of the top 15 tight ends. He has seen at least nine targets in three straight games and has caught a touchdown in two straight contests. The relationship with Philip Rivers is real, and the return of Hunter Henry this week from injury is not guaranteed. Gates has quickly become your weekly plug-and-play value tight end.
Jesse James vs. Cowboys, $3,900
Pittsburgh has the second-highest Vegas implied team total on the week at 26.75. Dallas ranked 31st in DVOA against tight ends heading into Week 9. Furthermore, Ladarius Green appears not to be ready yet to take the field for the Steelers. All of these things culminate in one of my favorite tight end values all season making a return to the list. James has some great touchdown potential here, and has the potential for even more production between the 20’s.