Fantasy Aces Value Plays: Week 11
Week 11 is the second-to-last week of the season with teams on bye. Pretty soon, our player pool will be even deeper, and value will (hopefully) be a little easier to find. In the meantime, let’s focus on finding the best plays possible to dominate your opponents this weekend.
Blake Bortles at Lions, $6,100
As a real life quarterback, Bortles has been certifiable pool filth this season. But as a fantasy quarterback? The third year pro has turned garbage time into production time, going for at least 250 yards and two touchdowns in three straight games. The Lions entered Week 10 ranked 31st in Football Outsiders pass DVOA rankings and are among the best match-ups in the NFL for opposing passers. I don’t typically love signal callers who are massive underdogs (the Lions are currently seven-point favorites), but Bortles seems to be the exception to that rule.
Cody Kessler vs. Steelers, $5,000
Kessler comes in at a massive value this week relative to his peers. He’s $600 cheaper than the next tier of quarterbacks and should get plenty of action in a game the Browns will almost certainly be losing. In wins this season, the Steelers allow 309 yards per game. Kessler has posted over 12 points four times this season, and I’m willing to bet he does it a fifth time this week.
James White at 49ers, $4,100
It’s tough sledding for value this week at running back, but this is a premium match-up that cannot be ignored. The 49ers have allowed a 100-yard rusher in seven of their last eight games, and a receiving touchdown in their last two. The latter statistic is probably most relevant to White, the Patriot’s primary receiving back this season. With Dion Lewis not even active last week against Seattle, I have a hard time believing he comes in to take serious work away from White against the Niners. Even on limited touches, White could do a ton of damage in this match-up.
T.J. Yeldon at Lions, $3,800
The workload is fairly split between Yeldon and teammate Chris Ivory, but the former is $600 cheaper than the latter. Detroit ranked 26th in rush DVOA and 27th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game heading into their Week 10 bye. The Lions are capable of giving up many points to opposing running backs. As I mentioned with respect to Bortles, the Jags are huge dogs in this game, and should be playing from behind. That favors Yeldon getting a majority of the snaps as the passing down running back for Jacksonville.
Terrelle Pryor vs. Steelers, $4,400
Pryor is a top-15 wideout this season, yet finds himself priced down at WR32 this week on Fantasy Aces. By comparison, he is priced as the WR11 on FanDuel and WR22 on DraftKings. The Steelers ranked 29th in DVOA against top wideouts heading into Week 10, then allowed over 100 yards and a touchdown to Dez Bryant. This may not seem like a fair comparison, but Pryor has quickly become one of the better deep threats in football and is supremely talented athletically. The Browns should attempt a ton of passes in this game, which gives Pryor plenty of chances to beat this soft Steelers’ secondary.
Eddie Royal at Giants, $3,900
The biggest news of the day on Monday was Alshon Jeffery being suspended for four games due to the league’s substance abuse policy. Jeffery’s absence should push Royal into a consistent offensive role, netting him more targets than his price would indicate. The Giants are not an easy match-up by any means, but they do struggle more with slot targets than boundary players, and Royal has chemistry with quarterback Jay Cutler. This is a terrific price play.
Zach Miller at Giants, $4,000
The loss of Jeffery helps not only Royal, but also Miller. The young tight end already averages eight targets over his last five games, and that number has a shot to go up now with Jeffery out. Heading into their Monday night tilt with the Bengals, the Giants had allowed at least seven targets to a tight end in seven of eight games. Miller’s usage seems like a veritable lock, making him a bargain at 4K.
C.J. Fiedorowicz at Raiders, $3,900
Fiedorowicz has at least five targets in six straight games and seven targets in four of his last five. The Raiders have allowed at least five targets to five different tight ends this season. Four of those players have scored touchdowns. Fiedorowicz has a great shot to meet both marks as a five-point underdog to the Raiders. As bad as Brock Osweiler has been, he’s going to have to throw in this game for the Texans to compete.