Fantasy Aces Value Plays: Week 12
Week 11 featured some pretty tough injuries for DFS players. If you were able to escape with profit, you should be feeling pretty good right about now. We get a break from the byes here in Week 12, but with three games featured on Thanksgiving, this slate only encompasses 13 contests. Here are the value plays that can separate you from the field.
Marcus Mariota at Bears, $6,250
Fantasy Aces has not caught up yet to Mariota’s outstanding season. He has gone for at least 19 fantasy points in seven straight contests, including five games of at least 25 points. His average over that span is 27.19. However, Mariota still finds himself priced as the QB13 on Aces, a wide discrepancy from the other major DFS sites. Assuming he is priced lower than Aaron Rodgers on both sites (Sunday to Monday slates are not yet posted), Mariota is the QB5 on FanDuel and QB3 on DraftKings. This is tremendous savings on a player who has been among the best signal callers in football this season.
Blake Bortles at Bills, $5,950
Bortles let us down last weekend, but he remains an excellent value option here in Week 12. He has scored at least 20 points in three out of his last four contests and has another terrific matchup this week. The Bills ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders pass DVOA rankings heading into Week 11. The Jaguars are seven-point road underdogs and should be throwing the ball plenty.
Chris Ivory at Bills, $4,500
Ivory got a ton of extra reps on Sunday when T.J. Yeldon left with an injury. He saw six targets for 75 yards, 15 percent of his career receiving yardage. If Yeldon were to miss this game, Ivory will be in a terrific spot to produce in ways we typically do not expect. On top of that, Buffalo was 22nd in rush DVOA heading into Week 11 and could struggle against Ivory’s aggressive running style.
Wendell Smallwood vs. Packers, $4,000
With Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles both leaving Sunday’s game against Seattle, we got to see some extended run from Smallwood. He received 13 carries and four receptions and could see even more work this week if both of his backfield-mates cannot resume play. Mathews is day-to-day with an MCL sprain and Sproles has a fractured rib. I would anticipate Sproles returning against Green Bay, but am unsure about Mathews. If only Sproles is back, I feel confident Smallwood probably soaks up most of the early down work, which would make him a bargain at this price.
Tyrell Williams at Texans, $4,350
Tyrell the Gazelle is still getting no love on Fantasy Aces. Priced as the WR37, he is the WR23 in fantasy points per game this season. That includes a Week 1 game in which Keenan Allen was still a starter and two games against the Broncos. If we remove those contests, Williams is averaging 14.9 points per game, which would be good for fifth among all wide receivers. He is a must play at this price.
Tyler Boyd at Ravens, $4,200
A.J. Green suffered a hamstring strain on Sunday and has already been ruled out for Week 12. In extended time, Boyd managed to turn eight targets into 54 yards and a touchdown. Jimmy Smith has been fantastic this season, but should not face off against Boyd as he is not a boundary player. I’m expecting the rookie to see plenty of targets in this matchup and to put up some quality production at a bargain price as a result.
Gary Barnidge vs. Giants, $3,900
With Cody Kessler already ruled out for Week 12 with a concussion, Josh McCown will get the start against the Giants. Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, this is a good thing for Barnidge.
Zach Miller was on his way to a big game against the Giants last week before breaking his foot and we could see similar production from Barnidge this weekend.
Will Tye at Browns, $3,500
Tye had five targets and a touchdown last weekend and appears to be the clear top tight end in the Giants’ offense. This was his third game in a row with at least five targets. Cleveland ranked dead last in DVOA against TEs entering Week 11. The Giants are seven-point favorites and should have their way with Cleveland. That gives Tye great touchdown probability at his price.
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