We are about to enter the final month of regular season football. Week 13 marks the final time any team will be on a bye. … This puts us right into the home stretch of the season of this great game we all love. But enough of the romantic whimsy about football; you’re here for some picks. Here are your Week 13 values…
Tyrod Taylor at Raiders, $6,100
Taylor has managed to have a strong fantasy season, despite the absence of Sammy Watkins for much of it. He has at least 17 Fantasy Aces points in every game, but one this year, and has scored over 20 five times. This game has a projected Vegas total of 50.The Bills will need to use Taylor a ton to keep up with a red hot Oakland Raiders team that was ranked 24th in Football Outsiders pass DVOA entering Week 12. Watkins is back and already made an impact in Week 11, posting 80 yards on three receptions on less than half of the Bills’ snaps.
Alex Smith at Falcons, $6,100
The spirit animal of our site’s founder is doing what he does best: be terribly cheap in a good spot. He has at least 17 points in two straight games and this contest with Atlanta is the kind of matchup we want to target Smith in. The Chiefs are four point underdogs on the road, in a game with a 49-point projected total. Since Andy Reid took over the Chiefs in 2013, Smith has played in five games with a total of at least 48 and a spread of at least +3. In those games he averages 10 more pass attempts, 50 more passing yards, and 20 more rushing yards. The Falcons are currently allowing the most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing quarterbacks.
Carlos Hyde at Bears, $4,800
Hyde is the RB19 this week in pricing, which seems wrong considering the 49ers could actually win this game on the road against a team ranked 22nd in rush DVOA entering Week 12. He is the RB14 on FanDuel, the major .5 PPR site, telling us there is some value here. Hyde has at least 60 rush yards and three targets in consecutive games and has seven touchdowns on the year. He is averaging 4.7 yards per carry the last two weeks against the Patriots and Dolphins. I like Hyde to find the end zone at least once this weekend and easily pay off this cost.
Kenneth Dixon vs. Dolphins, $4,000
The well-regarded rookie finally got unleashed against the Bengals, seeing 13 carries and four receptions, his largest workload of the season. He had 80 total yards, which is a nice floor for this price already. The Ravens are 3.5-point home favorites and could look to establish the run even more in this contest. We could see his snap count continue to grow over veteran Terrence West and that means great value at this price.
Tyrell Williams vs. Buccaneers, $4,500
Williams is inexplicably the WR36 in pricing this week, which makes him an automatic play once again. As I mentioned last week, Williams has been phenomenal against teams other than the Broncos. He showed us just how good he is once again on Sunday, torching the Texans for eight catches, 70 yards, and a touchdown on 14 targets. That’s four straight games against non-Denver teams with at least 15.5 points. Just continue to take this easy value until he gets priced up.
Will Fuller at Packers, $4,300
Fuller finally looked healthy again after dealing with lingering lower leg injuries and had his biggest yardage total since Week 4. The Packers are completely disheveled at corner right now and should be no match for the young speed-demon. The only question that remains is whether or not Brock Osweiler can get him the football when he’s open. That said, Fuller was producing like a WR2 early in the season and I think we should see production closer to that now that he is healthy.
C.J. Fiedorowicz at Packers, $4,000
This is a great shot to take a player heavily involved in his offense at a cheap price. Fiedorowicz has seen 50 targets the last seven weeks and is the safety blanket for Osweiler. In a game against Green Bay that is sure to feature some scoring, I would expect Fiedorowicz to continue to see 7+ targets. With the Packers being top-10 in points allowed to opposing tight ends, that screams value play.
Lance Kendricks at Patriots, $3,800
Kendricks has seen seven targets and four receptions in each of Jared Goff’s first two starts of his career. The Patriots are sure to dominate this game from start to finish and ranked 29th in DVOA against the tight end entering Week 12. That means plenty of pass attempts from the rookie and lots of opportunities for Kendricks. Last week he made his day with a touchdown reception and he has a great chance to do the same here.
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