It’s finally here: the final four! Don’t worry, you aren’t delusional; March Madness is still a couple of months away. We are, however, in the final four weeks of the NFL regular season. During this final month it is important to try to stay the course in your bankroll management, while also maximizing profit as best you can. To help you with that, here are some value plays!
Brock Osweiler at Colts, $5,600
Osweiler is awful, but he turned in a quality performance against Green Bay, his fourth game in a row with at least 14.6 Fantasy Aces points. That may not seem like a lot, but for the price, that’s actually very usable. On top of that, the Colts are one of the best matchups in the entire league. Entering Week 13, the Colts were ranked 30th in Football Outsiders pass DVOA, and are top three in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. There aren’t a ton of usable spots for a guy like Osweiler, but this is one of them.
Bryce Petty at 49ers, $5,000
Petty took over on Monday night for the struggling Ryan Fitzpatrick and it was announced after the game he would be the starter for the remainder of the season. Petty was not great against the Colts, but still had 135 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions on 25 attempts. The real reason you want to play him this week is the volume you can expect from him in a good matchup at a low price. Prior to last weekend against the terrible Matt Barkley in the snow, the 49ers had allowed 300 yards passing or three touchdowns in five straight games. San Francisco is the fastest-paced team in the league and should allow for Petty to make some plays. If he can limit his turnovers he has a chance to crush value at this price.
Theo Riddick vs. Bears, $4,400
This is simply too cheap of a price for someone who has been a top-20 running back this season in half PPR scoring. Priced all the way down at RB32, we are getting a ton of scoring equity built into Riddick before even considering his matchup. The Bears were 21st in rush DVOA entering Week 13 and got gashed on the ground by Carlos Hyde. Riddick does most of his work as a receiver, but could see some extra rush attempts this weekend if Dwayne Washington, who left Week 13 with an ankle injury, cannot go.
Kenneth Dixon at Patriots, $4,150
Dixon continues to produce, seeing at least four receptions and 9.7 points in three of his past four games. The rookie probably isn’t going to wrestle the early down role away from Terrence West, but I am expecting him to be utilized more in this matchup with the Patriots. New England is an early seven-point favorite and that negative game-script should lead to more Dixon snaps and touches, particularly in the receiving game.
DeSean Jackson at Eagles, $4,250
The opportunity to play Jackson against his former team is one I almost always try to take advantage of. He is coming off of a tough outing against the Cardinals, but on Thanksgiving he absolutely crushed, going over 100 yards with a touchdown against the Cowboys. The Eagles have struggled with the deep ball at times this season, and Jackson historically plays well against Philly. He is averaging about two more targets and 20 more yards in four matchups with the Eagles since 2014.
Tyler Lockett at Packers, $3,900
Lockett finally had his breakout game against the Panthers, going for 63 yards receiving and rushing for a 75-yard touchdown. Now he gets to face a depleted Packer secondary that struggled against the aforementioned Osweiler. Lockett has seen six targets in three of his last four games and appears both healthy and involved in the offense. I like him to keep the ball rolling here in what has become one of the bigger rivalries in the NFC.
Jason Witten at Giants, $4,200
Witten mashed the last time these two teams faced off, catching 9-of-14 targets for 66 yards. Coming off of a game in which they were just smoked by Ladarius Green, it doesn’t appear as though the Giants tight end defense has improved much since then. In fact, Witten has averaged six more fantasy points per game against New York since 2013. That makes Witten a value at this price and someone you need to think long and hard about playing this weekend.
Lance Kendricks vs. Falcons, $3,800
Kendricks has seen consistent targets since Jared Goff became the Rams starting quarterback and that should continue against a Falcons team that has struggled against the position all season. Los Angeles is a six-point home underdog and will have to throw to keep pace with the high-powered Falcons offense. That means tons of work for Kendricks, who is an attractive play at under 4K.
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