Fantasy Aces Value Plays: Week 4
Can you believe the NFL season is almost a quarter of the way over? After months of arduous preparation, the season has predictably flown by. Hopefully, it’s off to a profitable start for you on Fantasy Aces. Let’s try to keep that ball rolling with some value plays for Week 4.
Joe Flacco vs. Raiders, $6,100
Going into Week 3, the Raiders had allowed over 800 yards and seven touchdowns in their first two games of the year. They backed that up with a great performance against the Titans, holding Marcus Mariota to just 214 yards passing and two interceptions. So the question is: which Raider defense is for real? I think it’s worth it to find out with Flacco, playing for a Ravens team that is passing the ball 62 percent of the time this season, as opposed to the 60 percent clip of Tennessee. Baltimore is also a 3.5-point favorite in this matchup.
Dak Prescott at 49ers, $5,600
This is the third time this year I have recommended Prescott as a value play, and I’ll probably keep doing so until Fantasy Aces decides to raise his price. After a rough opener against the Giants, Prescott has crossed the 20 point threshold in each of his last two games, scoring a rushing touchdown in both. This is yet another strong matchup, as San Francisco is allowing about 28 points per game despite shutting out the Rams in Week 1. I’m willing to bet the rookie has another sizable performance for a cheap price.
Matt Jones vs. Browns, $4,450
If Jones was a burrito, he’d be the kind you find in the backalleys of Tijuana at four in the morning. In other words, he isn’t good. But much like that burrito, he should run through the Browns with relative ease this week if they can build a big enough lead. Jones has seen about 63 percent of all Washington carries so far this year, and has also chipped in as a receiver with four targets. As 9.5-point home favorites, I would expect there to be plenty of positive game script for Jones to work with, which would lead to a quality fantasy day from the RB28 in Fantasy Aces pricing.
Jordan Howard vs. Lions, $4,300
Howard appears to be in line for some serious work in the upcoming couple of weeks. Starter Jeremy Langford has a high ankle sprain, and should be out for the foreseeable future. That means the rookie should only be competing with Ka’Deem Carey for touches against Detroit… except he is also banged up and missed their last game against Dallas. Howard could have this backfield all to himself on Sunday, just in time to face a Lions defense allowing over five yards per carry on the young season. There are some game script concerns, as the Lions are road favorites in this matchup, but Howard was active in the passing game on Monday night, seeing six targets, catching four for 47 yards. There is huge upside here.
Terrelle Pryor at Washington, $4,600
This is going to seem like a lot of points chasing, but I really think Pryor is underpriced this week. He was third in the entire NFL in both air yards and market share of air yards heading into Week 3. In his first game without Corey Coleman, Pryor was targeted 14 times against the Dolphins. It’s time for us to stop doubting what he can do on a weekly basis. Pryor is talented, in position to see tremendous volume, and also sees some quarterback snaps, rushing for a three-yard touchdown against Miami. He’s a must play for me this week.
John Brown vs. Rams, $4,200
With Michael Floyd in concussion protocol, there is some real opportunity here for Brown to continue seeing a major target load. The speedster saw 11 targets against Buffalo, after being an afterthought the first two weeks of the season. The Ram corners are atrocious, having just given up over 100 yards to not only Mike Evans, but also Adam Humphries. Brown has yet to record a 100-yard game or a touchdown yet this season, but I’m willing to bet he meets at least one of those milestones this weekend at a price outside of the top-40.
Zach Miller vs. Lions, $4,000
Miller looks to be in line for some real volume now that Brian Hoyer is the starting quarterback in Chicago. He saw nine targets, and got plenty of action in the Red Zone, catching two touchdown passes. Clearly the arm limitations of Hoyer are going to affect how this offense is run, and that means Miller should continue to get work. Detroit was 30th in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings against tight ends heading into Week 3.
Hunter Henry vs. Saints, $3,950
This play is contingent upon Antonio Gates missing this week’s matchup with New Orleans, but that seems fairly plausible considering he wasn’t close to playing in Week 3. Henry caught all five of his targets for 76 yards in his debut and the upcoming matchup is tremendous. The Saints were dead last in DVOA against the tight end in 2015, and Henry is the kind of talent that can make them pay. With the lack of underneath options in the wake of the Keenan Allen injury, Henry should continue to be relatively prominent in this offense.
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