Fantasy Aces Week 4: Impact Of Injuries And Suspensions
Every single injury and suspension matters when playing NFL daily fantasy sports (DFS). They cause the DFS landscape to change on a weekly basis. … Injuries and suspensions to lesser teammates or defensive players can cause studs to become must-plays in any given week. Furthermore, fitting a lineup under the required salary cap on Fantasy Aces can be difficult, but injuries and suspensions often create opportunities for players with low salaries to outperform their price. DFS websites, Fantasy Aces included, don’t generally adjust a player’s salary until after they have performed on the field. Being proactive about injuries and predicting a breakout before it happens not only provides legit bragging rights, but also plenty of chances to be profitable in DFS.
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Taking advantage of the cheap players benefiting from the absence of others affords you the ability to fit multiple studs into your lineups. Every single player who benefits from an injured/suspended teammate or opponent should always be considered when building lineups. That’s why I bring this column to you weekly and break down the most relevant injuries and suspensions each week in DFS. Let’s get to it:
Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, Stevie Johnson All Out + Antonio Gates Likely Out As Well + Delvin Breaux Out
With so many important pieces out of the Chargers lineup, Melvin Gordon should once again be super busy on Sunday. He has a dream match-up at home against a Saints defense that just gave up a combined 296 total yards last week to Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Plus, New Orleans gave up the second-most rushing yards last season and have given up the most rushing yards in the league so far this year.
Antonio Gates looks like he will miss another week, meaning Hunter Henry becomes a nice streaming tight end option once again. In his first game with significant playing time a week ago, Henry caught all 5 of his targets for 76 yards. He now faces a Saints defense giving up the 8th most passing yards so far this season.
Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams are also in play as the Saints historically bad pass defense plays without their best CB Delvin Breaux yet again. Look for Philip Rivers to take advantage.
Suspension of Marcell Dareus + Shaq Lawson, Reggie Ragland, IK Enemkpali, Sammy Watkins All Out
LeGarrette Blount leads the NFL in rush attempts, rushing yards, and is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns. Look for him to pad his touchdown total against a Bills defense tied for the third-most rushing scores allowed this season. They continue to play without defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, defensive end Shaq Lawson, linebacker Reggie Ragland, and defensive end IK Enemkpali.
Eli Rogers Out + Suspension of Martavis Bryant + Injury to Ladarius Green
Le’Veon Bell was likely already going to command a large target share in the passing game due to the absences of Martavis Bryant and Ladarius Green. With slot receiver Eli Rogers ruled out this week, it’s a guarantee. Bell could see close to 10 targets in his season debut on Sunday night and that’s before his rushing upside is factored in. Bell is a dynamic dual-threat playmaker in one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the Chiefs defense is giving up the eighth-most rushing yards this year.
Antonio Brown could also see a few more targets with Rogers ruled out. The best WR in football is always in play when you know he’s going to be pelted with targets. His target share numbers through three weeks are 29.7%, 29.7%, and 40.9%.
#Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger in his last 10 games after a loss? 10-0. 22 TDs, 5 INTs and an average of 289.8 passing yards per game.
— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) October 1, 2016
Dez Bryant Out + Jimmie Ward Out
Cole Beasley has averaged 8.33 targets a game so far this season. That number is likely to increase a bit this week with Dez Bryant out of the lineup due to injury. Making things even more interesting, Beasley’s match-up just got easier as 49ers slot cornerback Jimmie Ward is set to miss the game.
Bryant’s injury could also mean more opportunities for Ezekiel Elliott who currently ranks third in the NFL in running back touches. He plays a 49ers defense giving up the 10th-most rushing yards this season.
Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon Both Out
With Josh Gordon unfortunately a thing of the past and Corey Coleman missing some time due to injury, Terrelle Pryor has averaged over 10 targets per game to begin the 2016 season. His target share numbers through three weeks are 26.9%, 30.3%, and 36.8%. Volume isn’t a concern here and Pryor squares off against a Redskins defense allowing the eighth-most passing yardsin 2016.
Eric Decker Out
Quincy Enunwa has averaged 8.33 targets per game and seen target share numbers of 23.5%, 18.8%, and 25% through the first three weeks. All of those opportunities came with Eric Decker in the lineup. Decker won’t play this week, so Enunwa’s already large role in the Jets’ offense should only increase. Brandon Marshall’s role will clearly increase as well. Although the match-up against the Seahawks is a tough one, Enunwa and Marshall should both see plenty of volume, making them very intriguing GPP plays this weekend.
Jeremy Langford Out + Ka’Deem Carey Doubtful
With both Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey likely out this weekend, Jordan Howard is in line for a major workload against a Lions defense that has given up the 12th most rushing yards this year. Howard was the only Bears running back to handle the ball last week after Langford got injured. Furthermore, Howard was involved in the running game and the passing game, catching four passes.
Joey Bosa, Brandon Flowers, and Jahleel Addae All Out
The Chargers defense is banged up and they’ve already given up the third-most passing yards this season. Despite Drew Brees playing on the road in this one, I still expect a very solid performance from him. It sounds like Willie Snead is going to play, and he has a very favorable match-up with cornerback Brandon Flowers out of the lineup for San Diego. Brandin Cooks and Coby Fleener are also interesting plays, as neither safety Jahleel Addae or first-round defensive end Joey Bosa will suit up for the Chargers.
Doug Martin Out
With Doug Martin out last week, Charles Sims handled 76% of the Buccaneers touches. Sims should continue to monopolize the majority of the work until Martin comes back. Sims is a dual-threat RB and proved it last week by rushing for a touchdown and also catching six passes. His Week 4 opponent, the Broncos, have a reputation for having a phenomenal defense. However, they’ve allowed the sixth-most rushing yards this season, so Sims has a more favorable match-up than you probably even realized. He is a very interesting GPP play this weekend.
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