Wild Card Weekend Contrarian GPP Stacks

Wild Card Weekend Contrarian GPP Stacks

Ben Cummins is ready for the first round of the NFL Playoffs and he provides you with his top contrarian GPP stacks for Fantasy Aces. …

1. Ben Roethlisberger and Ladarius Green vs MIA, $11,600 (23.2% of your salary cap)

Ben Roethlisberger is my favorite QB play of the week. He’s thrown for at least three touchdown passes in all but one of his starts at home this season. He just absolutely mashes at home and I don’t think it’s going to be any different on Sunday. Plus, his matchup against the Dolphins secondary is a favorable one. The Dolphins tied for the sixth-most pass TDs allowed on the year. Here’s the thing though, I’m trying to win a GPP and that’s going to be hard to do with Roethlisberger when everyone and their mother knows he’s the play. Enter Ladarius Green. I’m telling you right now, Green is going to be lower-owned than he should be this weekend because of his concussion. As long as he is cleared, and all signs point to that being the case, he should be all systems go on Sunday. The best part is Green won’t officially be cleared until close to game time after many of your competitors have already locked in a lineup without him because “His status was too shaky.” He’s already been practicing with the team and it’s not like he’s returning from a knee injury where he has to work his way back into the rotation. The Steelers signed Green to a big money free agent contract to be a dynamic player for them and I expect Green to receive plenty of opportunities to prove them right. Remember, before the concussion, Green was being heavily targeted when on the field. A big game from Green at somewhat low ownership and this stack could have you rising to the top in a GPP rather quickly.

2. Aaron Rodgers and Jared Cook vs NYG, $11,750 (23.5% of your salary cap)

Jared Cook is my favorite TE play of the week. He catches passes from Aaron Rodgers, who is legit playing out of his mind right now. I think the Packers win at home this weekend and I think they do it in large part (again) because of the arm of Aaron Rodgers. That means you’re going to have to get the Packers pass catchers right if you want to win a GPP. It’s a little bit more tricky this week because of the matchup. The Giants have been phenomenal against the pass all season long. Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie have played great on the outside and it shows in the stats, as they gave up the second-fewest pass TDs this season behind only the Denver Broncos. Aaron Rodgers has a history of avoiding tough matchups and that’s where Jared Cook comes into play. He has the benefit of working over the middle of the field, where the Giants are much more vulnerable, and where I expect Rodgers to attack this defense. When it’s all said and done, I think this game will remind us of what happened back in Week 11 against Washington. With Josh Norman guarding Jordy Nelson for some of that game, Cook caught 6-of-11 targets for 105 yards and a TD. He did all of that in just his first game back from injury. Cook has had more time get acclimated into the offense since then.

3. Matt Moore and Jarvis Landry vs PIT, $10,600 (21.2% of your salary cap)

I got the Steelers winning somewhat easily in this game. If that does end up coming to fruition, then game flow is going to be on Matt Moore’s side and he is going to have to throw it a lot. I think Roethlisberger outscores Moore, but I also believe Moore can do enough, especially considering he’s $1,600 cheaper. When he does air it out, I expect him to look Jarvis Landry’s way plenty. Landry averaged 8.2 targets per game this season, which ranks as the seventh-most out of all players in this slate. If the game does go according to plan, I expect Landry to surpass his season average and see double digit targets in this one. He and Moore have been getting it done as of late, as Landry has a TD in two of three games with his new QB. Meanwhile, Landry only had two TDs in his last eighteen games with Ryan Tannehill. Look for the new tandem to keep their momentum going on Sunday. Although the Steelers finished the season with good numbers against the pass on paper, I still believe they’re beatable and I also believe in Landry. Even though it’s not ideal, Moore and Landry could utilize garbage time to help you win a GPP.

4. Russell Wilson and Jermaine Kearse vs DET, $10,700 (21.4% of your salary cap)
5. Russell Wilson and Paul Richardson vs DET, $9,800 (19.6% of your salary cap)

I believe Tyler Lockett’s injury will have the biggest impact on GPPs from an injury standpoint. I’m attacking that injury this week in hopes of gaining some leverage. I think the Seahawks win in a close one and since they legit can’t run the ball right now, that means Russell Wilson will have to get it done with his arm (and hopefully his legs too). My guess is Wilson will be throwing a lot this weekend and that should benefit those rostering him since he is at home in a favorable matchup. The Lions gave up the 14th-most passing yards and the second-most passing TDs this season. The ingredients are certainly available for Wilson to have a big game. If he does, Jermaine Kearse and/or Paul Richardson just might make enough plays at reduced salaries to put you over the top in a GPP. With Tyler Lockett’s season-ending injury happening just two weeks ago, I doubt many will value the Seahawks pass catchers accurately this weekend when building lineups. However, over the last two games, Kearse has averaged eight targets and Richardson has averaged six targets. That’s a bump of 2.4 for Kearse from his overall season average and a 3.6 bump for Richardson. Clearly, both are benefiting from a fantasy standpoint from Lockett’s absence. If one of these guys gets deep for one you might be sitting at the top of a GPP leader board come Sunday morning with a sweat on your hands. That could make for an interesting and memorable football Sunday.

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Ben Cummins

Ben Cummins is very passionate about fantasy football. He combines film watching and statistical research to formulate his opinions on a number of different fantasy football topics. He is dedicated to supporting his beliefs with important and necessary data. In addition to contributing to TwoQBs.com, Ben is also a contributor for both The Fantasy Footballers and Rotoviz. You can find him on Twitter @BenCumminsFF

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