Pocket Aces: Week 11 Contrarian GPP Stacks
I’m pretty biased when it comes to the work featured on TwoQBs. When the idea first percolated in my brain to start a website dedicated to 2QB/Superflex leagues the main priority was to provide readers with top notch writing from quality analysts. I feel we’ve meet that standard and I’ve been proud to share the work produced on this website. One such article is TJ Calkins’ Deeper, Cheaper, and More Contrarian that looks at under-the-radar GPP DFS plays on Fantasy Aces.
Earlier in the week TJ mentioned he had to deal with some plumbing issues and there was uncertainty as to whether or not he would be able to submit his article this week. Luckily for those of us who read TJ’s fine work he went all Tim “The Tool Man” Taylor and Deeper, Cheaper, and More Contrarian is a go for Week 11.
However, since there was no guarantee TJ would go beast mode on his pipes (that’s an innuendo destined straight for the gutter) I put on my DFS hat and took a look at some low-owned Fantasy Aces stacking options. Below you will find three low-owned (under 10%) stacks to consider utilizing in Fantasy Aces GPP tournaments this week.
Week 11 Contrarian Fantasy Aces GPP Stacks
1. Russell Wilson (3% owned/$6,750 cost) + Doug Baldwin (6% owned/$4,900 cost) @ PHI
Both Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin are coming off their best performances of the 2016 season so I’m a bit surprised at their ownership percentages.
Versus the Patriots in Week 10, Wilson completed 25-of-37 passes for 348 yards and three touchdowns. Baldwin was the intended target on eight of those passes, catching six for 75 yards and three touchdowns. Wilson finished the week scoring exactly 30 Fantasy Aces points, while Baldwin chipped in 26.90 Fantasy Aces.
Part of the low ownership for both players is most likely due to what is perceived as a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. Last week the Eagles held the highest scoring fantasy player headed into Week 11, Matt Ryan, to 267 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. It was only the third time this year Ryan threw for less than 270 yards and it was his third lone touchdown game of the year.
Prior to that game, the Eagles allowed an average of 262 yards, three touchdowns, and 27.3 Fantasy Aces points to Dak Prescott and Eli Manning in back-to-back games. After starting the season allowing zero touchdowns and picking off three passes in their first three games, the Eagles defense has allowed multiple passing touchdowns to opposing signal callers in four of their last six games. Those four quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Prescott, and Eli) scored at least 19 Fantasy Aces points against Philly.
As for Baldwin, according to Anthony Amico in the Draft Day Consultants, INC. Week 11 DFS Newsletter, he will line up primarily in the slot and do battle against Malcolm Jenkins, who is in top-ten of fantasy points allowed/route run based on Pro Football Focus metrics. While Baldwin might not score three touchdowns again this week, he does have multi-touchdown upside, as evidenced by his string of four multi-touchdown games to close out the 2015 season.
Below are a few stat lines given up to wide receivers by Philadelphia the last four games:
- Julio Jones – 10 catches, 135 yards
- Taylor Gabriel – 1 catch, 76 yards, 1 touchdown
- Odell Beckham – 4 catches, 46 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Dez Bryant – 4 catches, 113 yards, 1 touchdown
- Cordarrelle Patterson – 7 catches, 67 yards, 1 touchdown
The low ownership and ceiling of this stack make it one to build around in GPP lineups this weekend.
2. Blake Bortles (9% owned/$6,100 cost) + Julius Thomas (6% owned/$4,100 cost) @ DET
Two defenses have emerged as weekly targets when it comes to quarterback streaming for me this season: Detroit and Cleveland. In 19 combined games, they have allowed a total of 11 top-12 (QB1) finishes in standard scoring leagues. I was fully expecting Bortles to be a top-five owned QB on the THU-MON slate based on the matchup. He did come in at QB7 though, and with Drew Brees and Cam Newton out of the main slate pool it’s highly likely Bortles’ ownership percentage will shoot up.
However, he was nine percent owned and meets the eligibility criteria. There’s debate as to whether or not Bortles is a component real life NFL quarterback, but luckily that doesn’t matter in fantasy. He has scored 20 or more Fantasy Aces points in three straight games, with a high of 33.05 points in Week 8 against Tennessee. He has averaged 25.8 points during that span. Out of nine games, Bortles has scored 20+ Fantasy Aces points in five games and has thrown 2+ touchdowns in six contests.
Here’s a list of every quarterback to face Detroit this season and how many Fantasy Aces points they scored:
- Andrew Luck – 39.35
- Marcus Mariota – 19
- Aaron Rodgers – 28.45
- Brian Hoyer – 23.97
- Carson Wentz – 19.30
- Case Keenum – 32.75
- Kirk Cousins – 24.95
- Brock Osweiler – 11
- Sam Bradford – 18.65
Add it all up, and the Lions are allowing opposing signal callers to score an average of 24.16 Fantasy Aces points. If we take Brock Osweiler out of the equation that number shoots up to 25.8/game. Bortles may be bad, but the Lions defense is worse. With this game being in Detroit we don’t have any weather concerns to worry about either.
As bad as Detroit has been against opposing quarterbacks they may be even worse against the tight end position. They’ve allowed at least one touchdown to a tight in 7-of-9 games. Tight end has been kind of a wasteland this year, as no tight end has scored more than five touchdowns this year. Julius Thomas has four, with three of them coming in his last four games. The one game he didn’t score a touchdown against was Kansas City, who have allowed only one receiving touchdown to the tight position all year long.
Ignoring the Kansas City game, Thomas scored 9+ Fantasy Aces points in the other three games. The upside may not be there with Thomas, but we’re just banking on a touchdown, and the Lions are the only team to allow a full touchdown/game average to tight ends this season. Even if he were to pull a Kyle Rudolph against Detroit in Week (1 catch for 1 yard and 1 touchdown), Thomas would exceed his $4,000 price tag.
Allen Robinson (6% owned/$5,150) and Marqise Lee (1% owned/$4,100) can also be added to/replace Thomas in this stack. Robinson provides the highest upside, coming off a Week 10 game where he caught 9-of-13 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown (23.20 Fantasy Aces points). He faces a Lions defense that just saw Stefon Diggs catch 13-of-14 passes for 80 yards (22.90 Fantasy Aces points).
3. Ben Roethlisberger (5% owned/$7,450 cost) + Antonio Brown (5% owned/$6,600 cost) @ CLE
I did not expect Ben Roethlisberger or Antonio Brown to each be only five percent owned. I understand the road/home splits argument for Roethlisberger, but he’s facing the Cleveland Browns.
Using the RotoViz Game Splits App, Roethlisberger has played exactly 90 games at home and 90 games on the road in his career. He is averaging 3.6 fantasy points more/game at home than on the road.
Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus tweeted out some more recent interesting Roethlisberger home/away splits today, which you can see below…
In his last 18 away games, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 19 TDs and 19 INTs.
In his last 18 home games, he's thrown 54 TDs and 13 INTs.
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 18, 2016
In short, that’s not good. If you average it out, Roethlisberger has thrown 280 yards, 1.05 touchdowns, and 1.05 interceptions in his last 18 road games. At home, those averages skyrocket to 345 yards, three touchdowns, and 0.72 interceptions.
In 11 career home games against the Browns, Roethlisberger is averaging 22.3 fantasy points, compared to 16.64 (5.77 less/game) in 12 career road games versus Cleveland.
While those road/home splits versus the Browns are worrisome, again, it’s the Browns. Below is a list of every quarterback to face Cleveland this year and how many Fantasy Aces points they scored:
- Carson Wentz – 22.00
- Joe Flacco – 19.20
- Ryan Tannehill – 22.15
- Kirk Cousins – 19.15
- Tom Brady – 33.70
- Marcus Mariota – 30.60
- Andy Dalton – 23.40
- Ryan Fitzpatrick – 16.70
- Dak Prescott – 26.35
- Joe Flacco – 25.10
On the year, the Browns are allowing opposing quarterbacks to score an average of 21.92 Fantasy Aces points, with Fitzpatrick being the only one to not score at least 19 points. The Jets’ on again/off again starting quarterback was also the only one unable to throw at least two touchdowns against Cleveland this year. The Browns have allowed the most passing touchdowns this season (25), with six quarterbacks throwing three touchdowns in a game.
Also working in Roethlisberger’s favor is that the Cleveland Browns are one of the top defenses to target, according to Sean Fakete’s Points Allowed Vs. Expectation (PAVE) metric. According to PAVE, the Browns allow opposing quarterbacks to score 24 percent above expectation.
Finding reasons to recommend Antonio Brown isn’t all that difficult. He has scored 15 or more Fantasy Aces points in 7of-9 games, with three games of 20+. He has been targeted 10+ times in all but two games and has caught 100+ yards in three games. The Browns have given up some big games to opposing wide receivers this season:
- Jordan Matthews – 7/114/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 20.9
Nelson Agholor – 4/57/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 13.7
- Mike Wallace – 4/41/2 – Fantasy Aces points: 18.1
- Jarvis Landry – 7/120/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 23.1
DeVante Parker – 3/51/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 12.6
- Chris Hogan – 4/114 – Fantasy Aces points: 13.6
- Kendall Wright – 8/133/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 23.3
Rishard Matthews – 3/70/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 14.5
- AJ Green – 8/169/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 26.9
Brandon LaFell – 4/83/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 16.3
- Quincy Enunwa – 4/93/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 17.3
- Cole Beasley – 6/56/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 14.6
- Breshad Perriman – 3/64/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 13.9
Steve Smith – 5/60/1 – Fantasy Aces points: 14.5
In nine games against Cleveland since 2011, Brown has averaged 19.2 half-PPR points. If you’re looking for a way to embrace the chalk and still fill out a unique lineup, you could add Le’Veon Bell (33% owned/$6,600) and make this a super stack. Bell was the highest owned running back on the Thursday slate, but pairing him up with the low owned Roethlisberger and Brown would offset some of that chalk when it comes to roster construction.
One aspect to this game you will want to look out for that might supersede the matchup and Pittsburgh’s high implied team total of 27 points is the wind speed. As of this writing, the projected wind speed for Sunday’s game in Cleveland is 24 MPH. My QB2 Experience podcast host Jim Sannes is always wary of games with a projected wind speed of 10 or more. The high winds in this game is most likely a big reason why Roethlisberger and Brown are so lowly owned, so keep an eye on weather reports Sunday morning.