For anyone who knows me, they know I tend to focus over 90 percent of my Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) action on cash games. … Cash games are generally any contest that gives you around a 50 percent chance of winning some money. This includes double-up games, head-to-head contests and 50/50s, all of which pay ~50 percent of the field.
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There is an ongoing dialogue regarding floor vs. upside when picking cash game players, but we should focus on a much simpler philosophy – just play the best values. You can find mine at each position for the first week below…
Dak Prescott ($4,500)
Dak is simply mispriced because of the late Tony Romo injury. There is legitimate risk and concern for Prescott since he is a rookie, but his situation and his rushing ability make him pretty hard to fade at $4,500. He will most likely be my Aces cash game quarterback.
Brock Osweiler ($5,850)
Osweiler is priced as if he sucks. Which, if the preseason was any indication, may not be true. He has a strong supporting cast and will be facing what looks to be one of the worst passing defenses in the league, the Chicago Bears. Their passing defense finished 23rd last season, according to Football Outsiders DVOA.
The Bears may be missing Kyle Fuller who recently had a knee scope. Even if he does play, he will not be at full speed, as he attempts to take on DeAndre Hopkins. The Bears put effort into upgrading their defensive front but did not upgrade their secondary and I expect Osweiler to have a lot of opportunity to do some damage through the air.
Matthew Stafford ($6,250)
The Colts are starting Antonio Cromartie at cornerback this week… That should be all you need to know. Seriously though, Indy may field the worst secondary in the NFL on Sunday and they have some talent on the defensive line that can stop the run. This should be a recipe for Stafford and offense coordinator Jim Bob Cooter to continue the passing success they had last season.
Lamar Miller ($5,150)
King Lamar is locked and loaded as a top-end RB1 this season, but is only priced as the RB9 on Fantasy Aces. The Texans should be leading for most of this game and I expect Lamar to get his first opportunity at some workhorse numbers against a rushing defense that, while improved, finished 32nd in DVOA last season.
DeAngelo Williams ($4,900)
Priced as the RB12 on Fantasy Aces, DeAngelo is not priced correctly with Le’Veon Bell suspended for this week. For perspective, he is priced as the RB6 on DraftKings. He will probably be the first running back I plug into my Aces cash lineups.
Ryan Mathews ($4,900)
There has been a lot of offseason talk about an increased role for Darren Sproles, but that shouldn’t matter this week. The Eagles will face off against a Browns defense that finished 27th against the pass and 26th against the run according to DVOA. Without Josh Gordon, the Browns are just not a very good football team. Vegas agrees, as the Eagles are currently a 7.5-point favorite against the Browns. We should see a ton of Ryan Mathews playing clean up duty and, in my opinion, is the most likely running back to score a touchdown this weekend.
Spencer Ware ($4,000)
Ware is priced as if he is going to be Charles’ backup this weekend. However, it looks like Ware is not going to be Charles’ backup this weekend. If Ware is the starter, don’t overthink this one. He is a great play at bottom barrel pricing.
Sammy Watkins ($4,750)
Watkins is going to face off against a Baltimore secondary that got obliterated last season. They added Eric Weddle, which should help, but they did not upgrade at the cornerback position. The Ravens boasted a rushing defense that finished 12th in DVOA and should force Tyrod to air it out to his favorite target. Watkins is very under priced as the WR30 on Fantasy Aces and has a good chance to finish as a top-12 receiver this week.
Golden Tate ($4,700)
Golden Tate is priced much more reasonably on Fantasy Aces, unlike the other sites where he is almost twice as costly as Marvin Jones. He should see solid targets in a game where Stafford looks to light up a bad secondary. We should be interested in both Tate and Jones in this one.
Marvin Jones ($4,450)
You aren’t getting the discount for Jones that you are getting on the other DFS sites but I still really like him. Both Jones and Tate should be in line for a lot of volume in this contest and I think you could make the case to stack either one of them with Stafford in your cash games and GPPs. (You could even stack him with both of them in GPPs – and toss Boldin into the mix).
Kamar Aiken ($4,350)
According to DVOA, the Bills are vulnerable ONLY in the middle of the field, as you can see below.
This means we want to target their slot corner, Nickell Robey-Coleman, with Aiken. Steve Smith and Mike Wallace should have their hands full with Buffalo’s stud corners on the outside, while Aiken gets a chance to beat up on Robey across the middle. Baltimore will likely need to pass in a contest that projects to be very close, with Baltimore only a 3-point favorite at home. (You get three points for being at home).
Tajae Sharpe ($3,000)
The only place to truly find savings at wide receiver on Fantasy Aces this week is by using Sharpe. He makes a ton of sense as the WR1 in Tennessee, but there is concern for volume this week against the Vikings. Vegas only projects 41 total points to be scored – the lowest total this week. Since Aces is .5 PPR, we are hoping for touchdowns, but ultimately Sharpe is mispriced relative to his role in this offense and doesn’t have to do a lot to meet value. That being said, I prefer to find my savings with Dak at quarterback and Ware at running back.
Ranked in order below are three bargain bin Tight Ends on Fantasy Aces that are all priced at $3,500.
Vance looks to be the main target in that offense. Though scoring touchdowns is going to be a major problem, with the .5 PPR it is hard to ignore the target volume he projects to see.
The Saints were one of the worst teams against the tight end last season and Walford should get enough opportunity to do some damage here.
Much like Kamar Aiken, we want to target the Bills in the middle of the field. Crockett looks to be the starter at tight end again this season and he was very serviceable in daily fantasy formats last year.
If you’re new to the 2QB DFS scene and would like to give Fantasy Aces a shot you can use our referral code to sign-up.