CASH GAMES – Mitchell Trubisky ($4,500)

Trubisky is coming off a bye and gets a dream matchup at home versus Green Bay (25th against QBs), a team that just gave up 361 yards and two TDs to Matthew Stafford last week and 331 yards to Drew Brees in their game before that. His 32 passing attempts in week 8 at New Orleans suggests the Bears are ready to give the quarterback a longer leash and potentially take more risks, which will likely lead to legit fantasy production. The addition of Dontrelle Inman should produce immediate dividends for a lackluster wide receiver corps that badly needs true NFL talent. With extra time to get acclimated to the speed of the NFL and thrust into a starting job, I believe Trubisky will start to see everything “slow down” in the second half of the season, and this week will be the beginning of respectable QB2 production from the Bears signal-caller. At $4,500, Trubisky is the cheapest he has been all season and is extremely likely to give you value at the position (27 quarterbacks are more expensive than him on the Sunday slate alone), which is all you want when constructing a cash game lineup.

GPP – Tyrod Taylor ($6,300)

Tyrod Taylor is facing an undoubtedly improved Saints defense on Sunday. While “improved”, the Saints still have a long way to go to actually being good, as they still rank in the middle of the pack in most defensive categories. This is a great spot for Taylor and the Bills, as their quasi-bye from last Thursday gives them 10 days off between games. Those 10 days have allowed for two key additions: Charles Clay via return from injury and Kelvin Benjamin via trade. This is huge for the Bills, who badly needed receiving talent and depth. Deonte Thompson, Zay Jones, and Nick O’Leary were the three leading Bills receivers in last week’s loss at the Jets. It’s no wonder Shady was bottled up for 25 yards on only 12 carries. Benjamin gives Tyrod possibly the NFL’s premier red zone threat at the wide receiver position at 6’5″ and 18 touchtowns in 40 career games, while Clay returns as the Bills’ leading receiver despite missing the last three games.

At 46.5, the Bills/Saints game has the second-highest over/under on the board this week, despite the outward appearance of a defensive battle. A total of 77 percent of tickets have come in on the under so far, suggesting the public is assuming a defensive battle; reverse line movement suggests the public is wrong. Chances are this is a trap game for the Saints, as trips to Buffalo often are (Bills are 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread at home this year). With much-improved talent at receiver in a game that could be a shootout, Taylor has a real chance to put up the best fantasy performance at quarterback this week. When in doubt, trust Vegas’ totals, betting patterns, and line movements.

Jeff Dumont

Jeff Dumont has been playing fantasy football since the mid-90s, when the other Michael Jackson played for the other Cleveland Browns. He specializes in all types of NFL gambling, from DFS to Vegas lines to high stakes season long fantasy football.

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