WEEK 16 FANDUEL SUPERFLEX GPP QUARTERBACK PLAYS
As many (all) TwoQBs readers know—when possible, we should always be starting a QB in the superflex spot. They produce the most consistent scoring compared to the WR and RB positions. Here I will outline a QB1 to place into your starting QB spot and two additional QB2 pairings to use in the Superflex spot for Fanduel GPPs.
GPP QB1 – CAM NEWTON ($8,300)
Cam Newton was a GOAT as expected last weekend, in an expected shoot out. He now gets a home game against a Tampa Bay defense that is a total sieve against the pass. At first glance, they’ve only allowed the 21st-most fantasy points to QBs over the last five weeks. However, that is because they have only been hit for five passing TDs in that span. They’ve allowed the third-most passing yards, but played three sloppy games over their last four weeks. Jay Cutler and Matt Moore combined for over 300 yards and two touchdowns the week prior.
The most notable thing about the Bucs defense is that they have been getting gashed by QBs on the run. Matt Ryan ran three times for 29 yards. Brett Hundley totaled 66 yards rushing on only seven attempts. And earlier this season (with Lavonte David playing) Cam Newton ran 11 times for 44 yards. Cam Newton has rushed 25 times over the last two weeks. Giddyup.
I think you could even game stack Cam with Jameis Winston in Superflex tournaments, as the main reason I am interested in Cam is because I think he will play well. The Panthers are 10-point favorites, but I think their defense is leakier than it gets credit for. They have given up 839 passing yards and six passing touchdowns over the last three weeks. And over the last five weeks, they have been allowing nearly 4.8 yards per carry. This is a huge positive for the Bucs offense, because they really can’t run the ball. With a 46.5-point Vegas total, my money is on the over.
GPP QB2 – DAK PRESCOTT ($7,600)
Before I start, I want to note that Dak has been horrible without Ezekiel Elliott. Per Pro Football Focus, while Zeke was out over Weeks 10-15, Dak took 39 play-action drop backs, with 32 actual pass attempts. That means 17% of these plays didn’t even result in a pass (which is bad). He had a 59% completion percentage on those 32 attempts, for 203 yards and threw one touchdown and 1 interception. Over Weeks 1-9 with Zeke playing, Dak took 65 dropbacks for play-action, throwing 61 passes. He completed 62% of these passes for 497 yards and seven touchdowns. He threw zero interceptions on those plays. This is what their offense has been missing. Teams simply aren’t respecting the play-action passes with Alf in there.
WITHOUT ZEKE (PER PFF)
WITH ZEKE (PER PFF)
I think this is a massive bounce back opportunity for Dak and the entire Dallas offense. I also think it’s a big bounce back spot for the Seattle offense. This game has a 47-point total and rising. The Seattle defense has been absolutely sapped by injuries and are just a shell of themselves. They allowed four passing touchdowns to Jared Goff and Blake Bortles on only 48 combined passing attempts for a total of 388 passing yards over the last two weeks. That is eight yards per attempt. Don’t let anyone tell you Zeke returning negatively impacts Dak – it only helps.
GPP QB2 – DREW STANTON ($6,000)
This one is not for the faint of heart. But Stanton is a bare minimum starting quarterback in a strong matchup. We have not had an opportunity for a bare minimum starting QB in a good matchup very often this season. FanDuel and DraftKings have done a respectable job of preventing these scenarios with their pricing. However, the late news of Gabbert’s benching has created value.
Stanton faces off against a Giants defense that has been falling apart for weeks. They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to six of the last eight quarterbacks they have faced. Those two QBs were Derek Carr without Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper and the windy Kansas City game. Over the last two weeks, the Giants have been trounced for 569 passing yards and seven touchdowns from Nick Foles and Dak Prescott. Not exactly a murderer’s row.
The positive for Stanton’s passing is that the Giants’ rushing defense has tightened back up over the last two weeks, after allowing a 100-yard rusher in back-to-back games over Weeks 12 and 13. Against Dallas and the Eagles’ strong rushing attacks, the Giants held them to 4.34 yards per carry. Not perfect, but it is an improvement. And on the Cardinals side, they are allowing only 3.2 yards per carry over the last five weeks. As long as both rushing attacks are limited, this game should have ample opportunity to shoot out with two leaky passing defenses.
I also think there is plenty of merit to using ELI MANNING ($6,800). But, with all of that said, this game has serious risk to be slow if the Cardinals have rushing success. Bruce Arians has shown that he is happy to run the ball over and over and over and over again without Palmer at QB.