Week 16 FanDuel Superflex Stacks
The first week of superflex DFS on FanDuel was a tremendous success. And I don’t mean for me making a profit, or for anyone else I know taking down GPPs. The proof is in the enhancement of the product. Last week, the superflex offerings were quite small, but demand was so high that there are now some BIG games in the lobby this week, including a $7 GPP with a $20,000 first prize! Let’s keep smashing superflex games so the prizes can get even bigger!
Tom Brady ($9,500) + Dion Lewis ($6,700) + Rob Gronkowski ($8,400)
Run it back with: LeSean McCoy ($8,600)
For the top stack this week, we’re going right for the jugular with the team with the highest projected total on the slate. New England has a 29.75 team total, and are 12.5 point favorites at home against Buffalo. The Bills have actually been solid against the pass, ranking 12th in Football Outsiders pass DVOA and 30th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. However, I think this will simply lead to Brady being under-owned relative to his potential output in this contest.
According to the Fantasy Labs Trends Tool, Brady has an average +/- of 2.01 in home games where New England has at least a 28 point implied total. The last time the Patriots faced off with Buffalo, Gronkowski was unstoppable, catching nine passes for 147 yards on 11 targets. That is a matchup that should not only be exploitable for the Patriots again, but should yield concentrated success for Brady. In other words, Brady and Gronk will be correlated highly this weekend.
The addition of Lewis to the stack accounts for the expected lack of Rex Burkhead for the Patriots this weekend. Lewis has seen double-digit carries in eight of his last nine games, and has scored four touchdowns in that span. The lack of touchdowns is symptomatic of Burkhead’s presence, as he has six scores in his past four contests. If those scores, along with some additional touches, can go Lewis’ way, he should smash his price. If he can do some work in the passing game, the stack is ripe for explosion. McCoy compiled over 100 total yards earlier this year against New England, and is the focal point of the Bills offense.
TOP VALUE STACK
Drew Stanton ($6,500) + Larry Fitzgerald ($7,500)
Run it back with: Sterling Shepard ($6,700)
The decision to go with Stanton over Blaine Gabbert for the Cardinals opens up some value for us this week on FanDuel. Arizona is a home favorite, which is typically a positive for quarterback production. The Giants also just gave up four touchdown passes to another backup in Nick Foles, so they are certainly an exploitable matchup.
Stanton has targeted Fitzgerald 25 percent of the time dating back to 2015. On those targets, he has a catch rate of 67.5 percent and a touchdown rate of five percent. Fitzgerald has about 500 more receiving yards this season than the next closest Cardinal, and is eight catches away from 100. He should continue to be the focal point of this passing game.
Shepard is coming off of a game in which he saw 16 targets, catching 11 for 139 yards and a touchdown. According to Pro Football Focus, he sees 84 percent of his snaps in the slot, where Patrick Peterson travels just 12 percent of the time. It is likely Shepard sees most of his routes and targets away from the star corner, and he will be set up for success as a result.
GAME STACK OF THE WEEK
Drew Brees ($9,200) + Alvin Kamara ($8,500) + Michael Thomas ($8,200)
Matt Ryan ($8,400) + Devonta Freeman ($7,000) + Mohamed Sanu ($5,900)
The only game that currently has a Vegas total over 48 points is this contest between the Saints and Falcons, which rests at 52.5. Atlanta is ninth in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and this game features two of the more explosive offenses in the league. Together, they combine for 11 30-point games (39 percent). This game should have major playoff implications, and should be a shootout as a result. It should also be noted Kamara was knocked out of the game early against the Falcons when they met two weeks ago.
New Orleans continues to have an extremely concentrated pass game, with Thomas and Kamara seeing 28 and 18 percent of the targets, respectively. Thomas has at least 90 yards receiving in four of his last six contests, and has scored a touchdown in three straight. If we remove the game in which he was injured, Kamara has scored in seven straight outings. The Falcons are 21st in DVOA against number one wideouts, and 20th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game.
Ryan has some extreme road splits this season, averaging about 22 more passing yards, 0.57 more passing touchdowns, and 0.43 less interceptions while away from home. Tevin Coleman is expected to play after clearing concussion protocol, but Freeman is coming off of a game with 194 total yards and a touchdown. It is very possible he remains the lead back and workhorse for this contest. Sanu should avoid top Saint corners Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley while in the slot, and has scored at least 16 FanDuel points in two of his last four games. It helps Atlanta that the Saints will be without Kenny Vaccaro, who is out for the year.