Week 16 Fantasy Aces Cash Game Picks
Cash Games are daily fantasy contests with a flat pay-out structure that tend to pay out roughly 50 percent of the field. The same prize is awarded to all “winners,” regardless of relative score. Because you’re winning the same amount of money whether you finish ahead of the cash line by 1 point or 100 points, you’re not necessarily looking to put together a lineup filled with massive upside and boom-or-bust options. You should look for the best value — picking players most likely to give you solid fantasy production relative to their salaries. With that said, let’s take a look at my favorite Week 16 Fantasy Aces cash game picks…
Andrew Luck ($7,250)
Luck has put together a pretty consistent season and has topped 18 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. He has also thrown for multiple scores in each of his last four games, averaging 266.5 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game in that span. The Raiders have allowed top-10 fantasy production to opposing quarterbacks this season, while ranking 21st in FootballOutsiders’ pass defense DVOA through Week 14 (Week 15 numbers are not out as of writing). Luck shouldn’t have much trouble continuing his solid play in this contest.
Philip Rivers ($6,800)
Rivers has had a couple shaky fantasy performances recently, but he has thrown at least 2 touchdown passes in seven straight games, while averaging a bit over 250 yards per game. He brings that consistency into an outstanding match-up against the Browns, who rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and allow the league’s second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Tom Savage ($4,900)
One of my favorite things about Fantasy Aces is how the 2QB setting open up opportunities to play the long-shot backup quarterbacks. They are often priced out of being viable on other sites, but can be in play for near-minimum salary on Aces. Savage replaced Brock Osweiler in last week’s game against the Jaguars and played pretty well, going 23-of-36 for 260 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. The Jags actually ranked 15th in pass defense DVOA going into that game, and this week’s match-up against the Bengals looks to be a little more favorable, as Cincinnati ranks 17th in pass defense DVOA while allowing the league’s 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Texans’ 21-point implied total this week isn’t great, but it does leave some room for optimism that Savage can put a mark or two in the touchdown column this time around.
Doug Martin ($5,100)
While New Orleans’ defense has improved against the run as the season has progressed, they have still struggled against running backs from a fantasy standpoint. They allow the league’s third-most fantasy points to the position, and have allowed three different backs to record at least 15 fantasy points over their last two games. Martin has consistently seen big volume since his Week 10 return, with 16-plus carries in each of his last six games, averaging 21.3 touches per game. He posted his best fantasy total of the season against New Orleans in Week 14 and should be in for a big day once again.
Todd Gurley ($4,900)
Nothing about Gurley’s production this year has been particularly encouraging. He averages 3.2 yards per carry and only 10.8 fantasy points per game. His volume hasn’t been awful though, with 19.8 touches per game, and volume is all you need from a running back in a match-up with the 49ers. San Francisco ranked 31st in run defense DVOA through Week 14 before allowing nearly 250 yards on the ground in Week 15. They allow the most fantasy points per game to running backs, and even a back as inefficient as Gurley should do serious work in this match-up.
T.Y. Hilton ($5,600)
Like Andrew Luck, Hilton stands to benefit from Oakland’s shaky pass defense this week. Hilton turned in a rough game last week, but still saw seven of the Colts’ 28 targets, bringing his total to 30 over his last three games. Hilton has topped 18 fantasy points in three of his last five games and should continue his hot stretch this week.
DeSean Jackson ($4,400)
Not usually known for his consistency, Jackson has been very solid lately, with at least 100 yards or a touchdown in four of his last five games. He also matched his season-high with 10 targets in Week 15. The Bears have been decent against the pass this season, but Jackson is cheap enough that his recent production and volume make for a solid play anyway.
Kyle Rudolph ($4,700)
Rudolph’s workload this season has been huge for a tight end, and he has seen a team-high 22% of the Vikings’ passing targets. He has eight-plus targets in nine games this season and has racked up 40 targets over his last four games. That volume makes Rudolph easy to like this week against the Packers, who allow the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Greg Olsen ($4,550)
So far this year, Olsen hasn’t been the hyper-consistent producer he was in past seasons, but his price has fallen to reflect that. He hasn’t been bad either — he has five-plus receptions in nine different games, and has accounted for a team-high 26 percent of the Panthers’ red zone targets. The Panthers have a decent 24.75-point implied total this week, and Olsen should be able to do some damage against Atlanta, who rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed top-5 fantasy production to tight ends.
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