Welcome back to the Weekly Fantasy Aces Marquee QB Matchup Article.
Last week I featured a matchup of Derek Carr and the Raiders visiting Drew Brees. … Having Brees in DFS lineups while fading Dak Prescott worked wonders for the old bankroll. I hope the article helped you secure a few pesos for a little extra wings come this Sunday. The team I rolled out in the Fantasy Aces Sunday through Monday freeroll finished inside the top-200 of a 3500 person freeroll. It would have finished better if I had changed the lineup based on Thursday’s ownership percentages and pivoted to Willie Snead and his low price and surprisingly less-than-five percent ownership. For my cash lineups I made the switch to Snead and now my girls can play with actual Play-Doh instead of leftover New Jersey Nuclear Waste.
This week is tough because the pricing has caught up to the actual on-field production and the marquee matchup of the week features the highest-priced QB in Drew Brees visiting Eli Manning and the New York Giants.
Fading Drew Brees
Drew Brees comes in at a whopping $7,750 off of his huge opening day performance. The only problem is he will be on the road in New York facing an improved Giants pass rush and secondary. I’m not saying to bench him in season-long matchups, but in the case of DFS, I’m fading the marquee QB. His ownership is going to be inflated based on last week’s performance and his road splits clearly make him more of an average play. Willie Snead ($4,700, up from $4,250 last week) and Coby Fleener ($4,400) are the only two in play for me this week from the New Orleans side of the ball.
Snead will be highly owned, but the Giants struggled last week against Dallas’ slot receivers. Fleener was the weak link of my posted GPP lineup last week and his poor performance means he will plummet in ownership, even though he gets a plus matchup against a team in the Giants that he has torched before. Jason Witten (9-66) had his way with the Giants at times last week.
Pivoting to Trevor Siemian and Others
Instead of paying up for Brees, I’m going to focus on Trevor Siemian ($5,900) of the Denver Broncos. Siemian looked extremely comfortable between the 20s on opening night against the Carolina Panthers, but struggled in the Red Zone. He was one well-placed Kony Ealy hand away from finishing the game with two passing touchdowns in his starting debut. This week he gets the Indianapolis Colts and their banged up secondary and led-footed linebackers. I think Siemian is a sneaky play who can help you pair the other marquee QB, Eli Manning, with at least two of his targets. Derek Carr ($6,300) is again in play this week, as the Atlanta Falcons cross the country to go play in Oakland. Carr’s price is manageable and would be higher, if not for Raiders’ rushing touchdowns. Jameis Winston looked amazing for most of the game last week and there’s no reason to think Carr can’t mirror that performance.
Dak Prescott ($5,300) is in play this week against Washington. His ownership will plummet off of last week’s underwhelming performance, but we shouldn’t knock him too hard because a good bounce (or dropped TD) here or there and he would have changed his final result. Washington looked shaky against both the run and the pass against the Steelers and I expect Prescott to have a better game this week. I know some will look at Josh McCown ($5,000) as he takes over for the injured Robert Griffin III, but I’m in a bit of a wait and see with that Cleveland offense.
Eli Manning & Co. Worth the Price of Admission
Eli Manning ($6,650) splits at home have been better the last few years than his splits on the road. He has managed to approach 300 yards as an average at home the last two years and has had a better TD versus INT ratio in 2012, 2014, and 2015. Just throw out 2013 stats if you ever have the inclination to look at that debacle of a season. Manning torched the Saints on the road last year and I don’t see a reason why he can’t do it at home this year. He has his full complement of weapons with Victor Cruz finally healthy. His offensive line performed admirably against the Cowboys considering how much of a question mark they were in the preseason. I think my favorite addition is the fully integrated Shane Vereen in the offense. His presence and the lack of the one-dimensional Andre Williams means Eli can really keep a defense guessing.
Who to stack Eli With?
Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,350)
Odell had a quiet performance, by his standards, against the Dallas Cowboys in the Giants’ season opener, but most of that was on Eli being a little out of sync on some throws. Eli had some poor mechanics on two throws to the left that led Odell out of bounds while trying to make the catch. He also missed him twice in the end zone, but you have to like that the Giants were calling plays for Beckham from the 2-yard line. This week is one of those weeks where everything that missed last week will click this week. Or so Nostra-Dennis says.
Rashad Jennings ($4,800)
I really don’t mind pairing Jennings with Eli this week. For some reason most of the DFS playing public thinks the QB-RB stack isn’t a good option, when in fact it can be just fine. The Saints were extremely susceptible on runs up the middle last week and the Giants excelled running the ball up the middle against the Cowboys. Jennings looked quick and powerful and is the short yardage back of choice for the Giants.
Sterling Shepard ($4,700)
Shepard had a dream come true rookie debut against the Cowboys. He hauled in a beautiful contested TD catch and played a key role in both the running and passing games. This week his price jumped up based on the TD and the plus matchup. I’m a little worried he may be over-owned this week even though he is basically splitting looks with Victor Cruz. The Giants are a three-wide team in its truest form, but with Vereen being such a receiving threat and two tight ends in Will Tye and Larry Donnell vying for Red Zone targets, it makes it hard to bank on Shepard in Week 2. I would rather save a few bucks and take Travis Benjamin of the Chargers who is now the defacto WR1 with Keenan Allen lost for the season.
Week 2 Fantasy Aces Freeroll Roster
Below is my posted freeroll GPP team for this week. Play along with me and let’s see how far we can build this bankroll. Feel free to ask any lineup building questions below or pick my brain on why I do what I do with these lineups.
Editor’s Note: If you’re new to the 2QB DFS scene and would like to give Fantasy Aces a shot you can use our referral code to sign-up.