Week 3 Fantasy Aces Cash Game Picks
Cash Games are daily fantasy contests that have a flat pay-out structure and tend to generally pay out roughly 50 percent of the field. … With the same prize for all “winners”, regardless of relative score. Because you’re winning the same amount of money whether you finish ahead of the cash line by 1 point or 100 points, you’re not necessarily looking to put together a lineup filled with massive upside and boom-or-bust options.
What you should be looking to do is find the best value — picking players that are likeliest to give you solid fantasy production relative to their salaries. With that said, let’s take a look at my favorite cash game values of the week on Fantasy Aces:
Philip Rivers ($6,750)
The Colts have given up 73 points in two games, and are still without their top defensive back in Vontae Davis. Philip Rivers threw four touchdowns in Week 2, helping alleviate some concerns about his fantasy potential with Keenan Allen done for the season. He ranks 11th in fantasy scoring among QBs so far, while the Colts have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Joe Flacco ($6,350)
The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, as well as the highest adjusted passing yards per attempt and the highest passing touchdown in the league. Joe Flacco has attempted 78 passes through two games, and bringing that kind of volume into such a good matchup is a winning combination.
Marcus Mariota ($6,250)
Marcus Mariota hasn’t been overly impressive from a fantasy standpoint to start the year, but he has an excellent matchup this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed 30.13 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season — by far the highest mark in the league. The Titans have a decent implied total of 24.25 this week, and no team has been more pass-heavy in the red zone to start the season (they have run 13 pass plays to only three rushes from inside-the-20). Mariota will play a big role in any offensive success they have.
David Johnson ($6,150)
The most expensive option at running back this week, David Johnson is worth the hefty price tag. He is one of only six backs to have seen over 50 percent of their team’s rushing attempts, as well as at least 15 percent of their targets. That workload also comes despite being taken out of the game early in Week 2, as the Cardinals won by a blowout and put their backups in. The Bills have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, while they ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA in 2015.
Jay Ajayi ($4,700)
With Arian Foster likely missing this week’s game with a groin injury, Jay Ajayi, who saw 57 percent of the Dolphins’ snaps in Week 2, is likely in line for the team’s number one running back role. The Dolphins are 10-point favorites over the Browns this week, and they are very likely to get themselves into a run-heavy game script, meaning Ajayi is in line for a big workload at a very reasonable price tag.
T.J. Yeldon ($4,400)
T.J. Yeldon is another workhorse, among that cohort of running backs who have seen 50 percent+ carries and 15 percent+ targets. He’s tied for first in that group in targets and fourth in carries. Yeldon hasn’t been efficient with that workload, but he is cheap enough that his huge volume in a matchup with a Ravens defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to running backs leaves a ton of room for value.
Julio Jones ($6,500)
Picking on the New Orleans secondary didn’t work out last week, as they held Odell Beckham to 12.6 fantasy points, but you shouldn’t be afraid to go back to the well this week. New Orleans will still start an ugly array of corners comprised of undrafted free agents, a group unlikely to provide any improvement over their 2015 passing defense that was one of the worst in history. Julio Jones ranks 11th among wideouts in fantasy scoring on the season, and he ranks second in fantasy points per target among the 77 receivers with at least 10 targets to start the season.
Willie Snead ($4,900)
Willie Snead is for real. He ranks fourth among those 77 10+ target wideouts in fantasy points per target this season, and he has been targeted 17 times this season, good for 20 percent of the Saints’ total. The Falcons have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and with the Saints’ 28.25 implied point total being the highest of the week, he should continue his hot start to the season.
Tajae Sharpe ($4,200)
Tajae Sharpe continues to sport a low price tag as the Titans’ top wideout. He has played 98 percent of the team’s offensive snaps through two games, while no other Titans receiver has played even 55 percent. His 18 targets account for 24 percent of the team’s total, while they are good for a whopping 43 percent of the targets that have gone to wide receivers. He draws a great matchup this week against a Raiders’ secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, and Sharpe shouldn’t have much trouble continuing to outperform his low price tag.
Jordan Reed ($4,950)
Jordan Reed is tied for first among tight ends with 18 targets on the season, and he accounts for 21 percent of Washington’s targets so far. Washington has been the most pass-heavy team in the league, and he has a good matchup this week against a Giants team that allowed nine receptions on 14 targets to Jason Witten in Week 1, after allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2015.
Antonio Gates ($4,200)
As I already mentioned for Rivers, the Colts defense has been struggling to start the year. They have allowed a league-high 73 points, and have allowed the eighth-most passing yards and the 11th-highest adjusted yards per attempt. Antonio Gates is tied for the team-lead in Red Zone targets this season, and with two effective passcatchers in Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen done for the season, Gates’ workload should continue to trend upwards.
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