Week 3 Vegas Fantasy Preview
Thursday night games have been money makers for ‘under’ bettors the past few years. The short week doesn’t give players proper time to recuperate. … That leads to more inactives and countless actives playing injured. Considering the general disdain these athletes have for this game, it’s no wonder the product on the field turns out sloppy and uneventful. Of course, the oddsmakers know this and have reacted with low totals. Week 3’s Thursday game between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots has the lowest total of the 16 games on the board (40.5).
This opens up excellent value for those who play in Fantasy Aces contests that start on Thursday. The Thursday game is always popular in DFS with higher ownership percentages than if the same game were played Sunday afternoon. Whether it’s the prime time factor, fantsy lineup builders, or people just not understanding the rules, use others’ mistakes to your advantage and fade the Patriots/Texans game. Then collect your cash on Monday.
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Texans @ Patriots (Houston -1, over/under 40.5)
I’ve read so many Rotoworld blurbs on Jimmy Garoppolo since Sunday I’m sick of seeing his face. He’s probably not gonna play. He was probably never going to play, but, you know, Belichick. How much should we downgrade the Patriots now that Jacoby Brissett is starting and possibly backed-up by Julian Edelman? Not much, if at all. Bill Belichick will use the limited game tape on Brissett to his advantage. Jacoby took no chances downfield and only attempted high percentage passes near the line of scrimmage. While he will do much of the same against the Texans, expect a few downfield shots to keep Houston’s defense on its heels.
Line Movements: Houston has actually dropped from -2.5 to -1 since Sunday evening, with the sharpest books (Westgate/Pinnacle) having the worst line for the Patriots (perhaps heavy sharp action on New England?). The possible return of Gronk likely offsets any QB downgrade, but I can’t help but wonder how Brissett will handle Watt and the rest of the extremely talented Texans defense.
Fantasy Aces Values: LeGarrette Blount ($4,750), who will be fed early and often, is the odds on favorite to lead all running backs in carries this week. Lamar Miller ($5,100) the 12th-ranked RB on Aces, Miller could be a nice return on investment.
My play: Patriots +1
Broncos @ Bengals (Cincinnati -3, over/under 41)
The Bengals are my best bet of the week here. Siemian’s first road start, his shaky play, not playing from behind/taking chances in Weeks 1-2, and injuries to DeMarcus Ware and Donald Stephenson are key reasons. Aqib Talib’s physical style of play will likely lead to pass interference calls, as superstar AJ Green (and home cookin’) will force the referee’s hand.
Aces Values: Gio Bernard ($4,650) is quite disrespected as the 28th-ranked RB, even considering the tough matchup vs. Denver. You have to scroll down to find Tyler Boyd ($3,800). It’s good value for a guy who had six catches for 78 yards last week and will be a key part to Cincinnati’s game plan.
My pick: Bengals -3
Chargers @ Colts (Indianapolis -2.5, over/under 51.5)
With this game jumping back and forth between Colts -2.5 and -3, the betting action is on both sides. With as much variance as both these teams have, the side is not a great bet. However, the 51.5 over/under is definitely eyebrow-raising. My immediate thought before the lines came out for this game is that the total would be close to 55, and with 87 percent of the action being on the over so far, it seems like the bettors are thinking the same thing. However, this line is dropping (albeit only slightly from 52). With reverse line movement and the perception of a shootout, you have no choice but to bet the under here. The injuries to Moncrief, Allen, Woodhead, and Gates are contributing factors to sneaky excellent value on the under.
Aces Values: Phillip Dorsett ($4,300) is an auto-start. With Moncrief sidelined, Dorsett now represents a nice combination of floor and upside, not to mention T.Y. will likely be matched up on Jason Verrett.
My play: Under 51.5
Jets @ Chiefs (KC -3, over/under 42.5)
The Jets are coming off their mini-bye and 10 days to rest/prepare for a Chiefs team with key injuries on both sides of the ball. It’s a tough spot for Kansas City and their bye in week 5 can’t come soon enough.
Aces Values: Quincy Enunwa ($4,300) has seen starter-level snaps and targets being part of the Jets’ base 3-wide set. With Brandon Marshall questionable and possibly limited in this matchup, Enunwa should see steady targets and has a nice floor at a bargain price tag.
My play: Jets +3
Falcons @ Saints (New Orleans -3, over/under 53.5)
This game has all the makings of a high scoring thriller: two dome teams, divisional rivals, shaky defenses, and the Saints desperate for a victory. Finally an exciting Monday Night matchup, this game will decide countless fantasy games and you will want several parts of it.
Aces Values: Where to begin. Drew Brees ($7,800) can’t be considered a value as the highest-priced QB, but that price tag will scare people away, effectively making Brees an unconventional contrarian play this week. With a likely floor as a top-3 QB this week, you can do much worse than spend your money on Brees. Ranked 15th at RB is Mark Ingram ($4,900). Ingram is a safe bet to rebound and return value there. The gap between Devonta Freeman ($5,200) and Tevin Coleman ($4,600) is closing, but it’s still too large. Coleman represents great value here. At $4,600, Mohamed Sanu is a real nice play with Julio Jones banged up and Atlanta likely playing catch up through the game.
My play: Saints -3 and the over. Parlay these two for an incredibly entertaining ticket.
Last weeks ATS record: 3-2
Year-to-date ATS record: 6-4