Week 5 DraftKings Quarterback Plays

Week 5 DraftKings Quarterback Plays

Cash Games – Brian Hoyer ($4,700)

Brian Hoyer has not had a great start to the 2017 season, posting three duds in four games and an 0-4 record, which has rightfully stirred up some QB controversy talk. So why should you go with him in Week 5? Lets dig a bit deeper to see how Hoyer is a potentially great value pick at quarterback this week:

  1. Brian Hoyer is eighth in the league in passing attempts, a result of Kyle Shanahan’s scheme combined with necessity. However, they haven’t been able to do much with those attempts. With San Francisco tied for the lowest passing touchdowns in being in the bottom 10 in passing yardage, efficiency has been the issue. I expect higher percentage, short passes this week that will consistently move the offense and set up big plays. Besides, the fast turf in Indianapolis is much like the Georgia Dome turf Shanahan’s offenses were accustomed to.
  2. The Colts defense is bad. This could be the worst unit in the league. Indianapolis has given up the third-most yards yards per attempt (8.5) in the league, and the signal-callers they’ve faced are not world beaters (DeShone Kizer, Jared Goff, Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson).
  3. The Vegas: The over/under has jumped from 43 to 44.5 in the past three days. A hungry 49ers team in a great spot against their worst opponent yet should be able to score at least three touchdowns in this game, and I predict Hoyer to have at least two of those. Hoyer has an excellent chance to outperform this dollar value, giving you a nice floor and cheap starting point.

GPP – Matthew Stafford ($6,300)

Like Hoyer, Matthew Stafford has had one great game and three consecutive underwhelming performances. The combo we’re looking for in a guaranteed prize pool quarterback is high upside and low ownership percentage. Stafford fits these qualifications perfectly. It’s likely Stafford will be faded by the public, even in a plus matchup at home vs. the Panthers.

In season long leagues, Stafford still has the 13th-most fantasy points even after this slow start. What if that final play in the Atlanta game was ruled a touchdown? He’s top-10. What if the Lions didn’t abandon the pass in the second half of the blowout win over the Giants? Maybe he’s in the top 5? Last Sunday’s game at Minnesota was the toughest matchup Stafford will have all season and he still managed double-digit fantasy points. The point here is that Stafford is a premier fantasy quarterback who is disguised as a middle-of-the-pack option.

Looking at Matt Stafford’s career splits, he has scored 26 more touchdowns at home (versus away). I’m expecting him to bounce back in a big way this Sunday. He’s a contrarian play who really should never be considered a contrarian play in this type of situation. I’ll have Stafford in several lineups, playing right into that recency bias. He may not be Joe Flacco, but Stafford really is elite.

Jeff Dumont

Jeff Dumont has been playing fantasy football since the mid-90s, when the other Michael Jackson played for the other Cleveland Browns. He specializes in all types of NFL gambling, from DFS to Vegas lines to high stakes season long fantasy football.

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