Week 6 Fantasy Aces Cash Game Picks
Cash Games are daily fantasy contests that have a flat pay-out structure and tend to generally pay out roughly 50 percent of the field. … The payout structure is usually the same prize for all winners, regardless of relative score. Because you’re winning the same amount of money whether you finish ahead of the cash line by 1 point or 100 points, you’re not necessarily looking to put together a lineup filled with massive upside and boom-or-bust options. You should look to find the best value — picking players most likely to give you solid fantasy production relative to their salaries. With that said, let’s look at my favorite Week 6 Fantasy Aces Cash Game Picks…
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Russell Wilson ($6,750)
Wilson didn’t have a great start to the year from a fantasy standpoint, but three of his four games were against defenses allowing below-average fantasy production to quarterbacks, including two teams (Los Angeles and Minnesota) who allow bottom-10 production to the position. The Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and Wilson is a proven fantasy producer, having finished top-3 among quarterbacks in each of the last two seasons. As of writing, the Seahawks are big favorites, with the 3rd-highest implied total on the slate at 25.75 points. Coming off of a 3-touchdown game against the Jets, Wilson has the potential to be the highest scoring quarterback on the slate.
Alex Smith ($6,150)
After writing three articles for TwoQBs with no mention of Alex Smith, I noticed more anonymous threats in my inbox than usual. Thankfully Smith draws a great match-up just in time to save my job (Editor’s Note: For now…). He’s taking on a Raiders defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. He had a rough day against the Texans (who give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks), but has averaged 19.63 fantasy points per game in his other three games. FootballOutsiders’ Week 5 DVOA numbers aren’t out as of writing, but the Raiders ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA through Week 4 and just allowed 359 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air to Philip Rivers in Week 5.
Marcus Mariota ($6,300)
Mariota also draws a good match-up this week, facing a Browns defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Mariota’s ability to run the ball gives his value a nice boost, and he saw an uptick in both rushing attempts and yards in Week 5 (with 7 carries for 60 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground). The Titans’ 25.75-point implied total is tied for the third-highest of the week, and Cleveland ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA through Week 4. To no one’s surprise, the Browns allowed Tom Brady to throw for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 5.
LeSean McCoy ($5,350)
McCoy is fourth among running backs in fantasy scoring, fourth in rushing yards per game (89.4), and has seen the 10th-most carries per game (17.0). The Bills have been run-heavy compared to their expected game script (per Kevin Cole of RotoViz). Meanwhile, the 49ers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and their fast-paced but inefficient style has them allowing the second-most rushing attempts and most rushing yards per game to opposing backs. The Bills are 7.5-point favorites, and adding a positive game script to the mix should lock McCoy in for as many carries as he can handle.
Lamar Miller ($5,150)
Miller has also seen a big workload this season, with his 20.2 carries per game ranking fourth in the NFL, plus 2.8 receptions per game. His fantasy production (and salary) are being hurt by the fact he has yet to find the end zone. The variable nature of touchdowns adds some major value to Miller with the depressed price tag in mind. He’s the only one of 14 backs with 15-plus carries per game to have 0 touchdowns on the season, and one of only 4 of the 34 backs with 10-plus carries per game to have not scored a touchdown. He also has a match-up poised to turn that volume into some serious production, as the Colts have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs and ranked 26th in rush defense DVOA through Week 4, before allowing Jordan Howard to tally 118 yards on 16 carries in Week 5.
Jeremy Maclin ($4,950)
Maclin ranks 12th among wide receivers with 9.25 targets per game. He has only turned those targets into 5.0 receptions per game, but with a 54.1% catch rate that is a huge drop from his 70.2% in his first year in Kansas City (and below his 61.8% career average), you can expect his efficiency to improve moving forward. This week is an especially good spot for that to happen, as the Raiders — as I touched on for Alex Smith — have been bad against the pass this year. They have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
John Brown ($4,350)
Carson Palmer will be back in action for Arizona this week, and the whole passing offense gets a boost from no longer having Drew Stanton at the helm. Brown has made a pretty clear jump over Michael Floyd on the depth chart, having played at least 90% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last two games, while Floyd has played below 50%. Brown saw 11 and 16 targets in his last two games playing with Carson Palmer, and should turn that volume into big fantasy production against a Jets defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wideouts.
Cameron Meredith ($4,200)
Kevin White landed on the injured reserve last week, and Meredith was the obvious beneficiary for the Bears. He played 95% of the team’s offensive snaps (more than even Alshon Jeffery) and turned a team-high 12 targets into 9 receptions, 130 yards and a touchdown. Meredith has a decent match-up against the Jaguars this week, a team allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, but his real value a salary that hasn’t caught up with his increased role. He’s heavily under-priced.
Greg Olsen ($5,200)
I assume almost everybody reading about Fantasy Aces cash game plays has been following football for the past couple of seasons, but in case you haven’t: the New Orleans Saints can’t defend the pass. They ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA going into their Week 5 bye, while allowing the sixth-highest adjusted yards per pass attempt and the fourth-most passing yards per game. Olsen has seen a huge 10.6 targets per game this season (including 13 in each of his last two games), and his 82.1 fantasy points are 15.6 more than any other tight end has this season.
Jason Witten ($4,250)
Witten has accounted for 39% of the Cowboys’ red zone targets — the seventh-highest mark in the NFL — and has seen a team-high 22% of the total targets (6.8 per game). He’s only priced as the TE17 this week, despite bringing that big volume into a match-up with a Green Bay defense allowing top-10 fantasy production to tight ends. The Packers also rank in the bottom-half of the league by pass defense DVOA.