2016 QB Projections – AFC East & NFC East

2016 QB Projections – AFC East & NFC East

Fantasy QB Projections Introduction

If you’ve landed here directly, I encourage you to read part one of the series projecting the AFC North and NFC North. … Where I discuss my projection methodology and define the metrics used to measure team performance. You can also check out my projections of the AFC South and NFC South. The third installment of the series covered the AFC and NFC West divisions.

Now, for the final installment of QB projections for 2016, I present the AFC West & NFC East.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

  o.snapsgmspa.drpbkpa.skpa.ydpa.tdpa.intru.attru.ydru.tdfpt.4ptfpt.6pt
BUF.QBTMTeam990.016.0534.637.43679.124.112.4100.2500.95.0298.7346.8
BUF.QB1Tyrod Taylor990.016.0534.637.43679.124.112.4100.2500.95.0298.7346.8
BUF.QB2EJ Manuel
BUF.QB3

buf_sch

I’m not quite sure what to make of Buffalo this season. My gut feeling is they’re Jeff Fisher East, based on how Rex Ryan has DGAF’d offense for nearly a decade. In that case, we know what to expect – a very productive run game based on rush play volume. In six seasons as an OC, Greg Roman’s offenses finish at or near the top in Rush Yards, and last season scored the most rushing TDs in the league. This bodes well if you’re into Tyrod Taylor as your QB.

Last season, Tyrod was the model of efficiency, posting 8.0 YPA (8.2 ANYA) to go with a 5:1 TD/INT ratio. That’s solid, considering he tossed in 561 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs. As you can see below, the Bills scripted negative 37% of snaps, and only opted to go pass-heavy once they were down more than eight points. In leagues where rushing attempts are awarded with points, Greg Roman is hidden gold.

buf_split_2015

For comparison, here is the Game Script Split Plot from Roman’s 2014 campaign in San Francisco. These play splits were more balanced, but I believe that is the influence of Jim Harbaugh and the personnel the Niners had in place. Still, it’s similar enough to note tendencies.

buf_split_sf14

Buffalo is projected to win eight games, which I feel is a bit generous. Presently, their defense is reeling from either injury or suspension. They still have a head coach who is -EV on the offensive side of the ball. We still need to find out if Tyrod Taylor has grown into an efficient, competent QB, or if last season was a mirage.

My gut feeling is that the defensive issues will cause more passing. As you can see above, I have seven of their games as questionable (toss-up), meaning I have no idea how those scripts will go. I’m hopeful for Tyrod this season, but if he crashes back to Earth, then we can all shrug and say, “Well, that’s Buffalo for you.”

Miami Dolphins

  o.snapsgmspa.drpbkpa.skpa.ydpa.tdpa.intru.attru.ydru.tdfpt.4ptfpt.6pt
MIA.QBTMTeam1080.016.0615.652.33773.924.614.169.7383.12.1272.1321.4
MIA.QB1Ryan Tannehill1080.016.0615.652.33773.924.614.169.7383.12.1272.1321.4
MIA.QB2Matt Moore
MIA.QB3

mia_sch

I’ll be up front – I have a horrible taste in my mouth regarding Miami this season. This franchise is still reeling from the Jeff Ireland/Joe Philbin quagmire from a talent perspective, and this isn’t the year they dig themselves out. Rebuilding years (we shouldn’t kid ourselves) usually work out as pass-heavy, inefficient seasons for the offensive players in question, simply because those teams aren’t winning many games. Miami is projected by Las Vegas at 7 wins. As of this article, I see only two positive-script games on their slate.

mia_split_2015

For such a heavily-negative season, I decided to look at Adam Gase’s last stop to see how he handled the play splits. Granted, he was calling the plays for John Fox, who would be happy to take three knees and kick a 19-yard FG with 3 minutes left in a game to tie the score. Now, for what it’s worth, most of the fantasy football community feels Gase is a smart guy, and will deploy his offense as efficiently as game situation and personnel dictate.

mia_split_chi15

And see see this below. Even with fading Peyton Manning, Gase chose to operate primarily as a passing team, even when ahead, because it played to the strength of his team.

mia_split_den14

Do I think Miami will go 6-10 this season? Absolutely. Do I think they can still provide enough fantasy production to warrant rostering two RBs, three WRs, and a TE? Yes. Which means you should also strongly consider Ryan Tannehill (late) in your drafts.

New England Patriots

  o.snapsgmspa.drpbkpa.skpa.ydpa.tdpa.intru.attru.ydru.tdfpt.4ptfpt.6pt
NE.QBTMTeam1120.016.0660.842.84577.433.210.736.769.91.4309.7376.1
NE.QB1Tom Brady840.012.0504.030.23553.227.77.126.940.31.1249.3304.7
NE.QB2Jimmy Garoppolo280.04.0156.812.51024.25.53.69.929.60.360.471.4
NE.QB3

ne_sch

For the Patriots this season, I wanted to look at two scenarios – the Matt Cassel season of 2008, and the “We’re on to Cincinnati” season of 2014. The 2008 season should be obvious, however, I chose the 2014 season because of how poorly Brady played during the first two months. He was inaccurate, inefficient, and at times just looked confused. Clearly, they righted the ship that season, but not without struggle.

ne_split_2015

The 2008 season is of particular interest because of the play split with a QB other than Tom Brady. The takeaway here is the negative script play split. I feel pretty confident New England will be behind more often than in 2015 (a mere 151 plays – and only 40 snaps down more than eight points), and will choose to split plays like they did in the 2008 and 2014 seasons.

ne_split_2008ne_split_2014

The big question here will be Tom Brady, and if he screams over the age cliff in 2016. The offense is designed around his brain, rather than his physical tools, so I think that possibility is minimized… however, we did see another erudite QB suddenly and completely cripple the Best Offense In Football last season. We need to be prepared for Tom Brady’s demise. I’m avoiding him this season, but I don’t have any issue with folks who draft him after QB12.

New  York Jets

  o.snapsgmspa.drpbkpa.skpa.ydpa.tdpa.intru.attru.ydru.tdfpt.4ptfpt.6pt
NYJ.QBTMTeam1040.016.0592.823.73869.826.717.153.7214.71.3256.9310.2
NYJ.QB1Ryan Fitzpatrick1040.016.0592.823.73869.826.717.153.7214.71.3256.9310.2
NYJ.QB2Geno Smith
NYJ.QB3Bryce Petty

nyj_sch

Last season, the Jets were run-heavy relative to the pack from an overall perspective. On the whole, Chan Gailey chose to pass 58% of non special-teams snaps, which ranked in the lower third of the league. However, in close game situations (within 8 points), Gailey ran the 14th heaviest passing split (59.5%), which indicates he is more than happy to play to the strengths of his roster. Last season, that was the devastating tandem of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Going into 2016, it’s possible we see a shift toward the running game again.

nyj_split_2015

From a play split perspective, I reached back to Chan Gailey’s 2012 season with Buffalo for another perspective on how he may choose to run his offense with the additions of Matt Forte and Khiry Robinson. The largest takeaway for me in this was that Gailey chose to go much more run-heavy when behind than he did last season with the Jets, which speaks to the quality of WRs between both squads.

nyj_split_buf12

Now, what happens if Ryan Fitzpatrick turns back into the bad QB he’s been known as his non-Gailey career? I believe Gailey is a sharp enough coach that there will be little, if any, drop-off in offensive production.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

  o.snapsgmspa.drpbkpa.skpa.ydpa.tdpa.intru.attru.ydru.tdfpt.4ptfpt.6pt
DAL.QBTMTeam980.016.0522.539.93486.525.013.053.1222.22.4250.1300.2
DAL.QB1Dak Prescott673.811.0357.125.02357.814.310.047.5213.72.4167.1195.7
DAL.QB2Tony Romo306.35.0165.414.91128.710.73.05.68.50.083.0104.5
DAL.QB3

dal_sch

You can do nothing but say the 2015 season was a complete disaster for the Cowboys. I decided to look at the play split difference between Dallas QBs last season, and it wasn’t pretty. Already facing low play volume due to Jason Garrett’s clever plan to own 40 minutes of possession (even when losing late), QBs not named Tony Romo face a horribly uphill battle to become fantasy relevant. The outlook for Dak Prescott this year is pretty dim, despite the seemingly stellar play during the preseason. I expect defenses game-planned to confuse him will win handily until Romo is healthy at mid-season.

dal_split_noromodal_split_romo

Looking back at Romo’s incredibly efficient 2014 season, I decided to see where he stood among the best QB efficiency seasons of the last ten years. I was expecting an all-time efficient season, and I wasn’t surprised when I pulled the numbers. Romo ranked 5th in TD efficiency, with 7.3% of his dropbacks resulting in receiving touchdowns. Three of the QB seasons above him resulted in MVP awards. The other resulted in too many fantasy championships to count.

yrtmplayerpospa.drpbkpa.attpa.comppa.ydpa.ypapa.tdpa.td.00pa.intpa.int00
2011GBAaron RodgersQB53850334346369.22450.08460.012
2007NETom BradyQB59957839847958.30500.08380.014
2013DENPeyton ManningQB67766045054698.29550.081100.015
2013PHINick FolesQB34531720328919.12270.07820.006
2014DALTony RomoQB46443530437058.52340.07390.021

dal_split_2014

Do we think this is sustainable? Do we even think Dak Prescott can come close? I’m not buying it.

New York Giants

  o.snapsgmspa.drpbkpa.skpa.ydpa.tdpa.intru.attru.ydru.tdfpt.4ptfpt.6pt
NYG.QBTMTeam1100.016.0660.029.74664.233.013.922.055.00.0296.3362.3
NYG.QB1Eli Manning1100.016.0660.029.74664.233.013.922.055.00.0296.3362.3
NYG.QB2Ryan Nassib
NYG.QB3

nyg_sch

The last two seasons under Ben McAdoo, the Giants have cranked up the play pace and the pass split. In one-TD situations in McAdoo’s first season (2014), the Giants ranked 5th in both complete pass play and rush play pace. Last season, McAdoo cranked up the pace even more, snapping a completed pass play every 26.7 seconds (2nd), a 1.5 second pace gap ahead of the 3rd quickest offense (SEA). They were just as fast-paced on rushing plays, snapping the ball every 31.8 seconds.

nyg_split_2014 nyg_split_2015

My thoughts on this season, with McAdoo in charge of the entire team, should see the pace increase even more. With the improvement this offense saw over the last quarter of 2015. Although they have finished 6-10 in each of the last two seasons, their Pythagorean Expectations show them as a 7.5 win team both years. They were the sixth-highest scoring team last season (420 pts), and 13th in 2014. They are trending  in the right direction to be an offensive juggernaut in 2016.

Philadelphia Eagles

  o.snapsgmspa.drpbkpa.skpa.ydpa.tdpa.intru.attru.ydru.tdfpt.4ptfpt.6pt
PHI.QBTMTeam980.016.0548.835.73591.922.010.334.5120.71.0229.2273.1
PHI.QB1Chase Daniel980.016.0548.835.73591.922.010.334.5120.71.0229.2273.1
PHI.QB2Carson Wentz0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
PHI.QB3
  o.snapsgmspa.drpbkpa.skpa.ydpa.tdpa.intru.attru.ydru.tdfpt.4ptfpt.6pt
PHI.QBTMTeam980.016.0523.145.43137.216.415.844.6176.32.1190.0222.7
PHI.QB1Carson Wentz857.514.0454.540.92688.213.614.540.3161.22.0161.3188.6
PHI.QB2Chase Daniel122.52.068.64.5449.02.71.34.315.10.128.734.1
PHI.QB3

phi_sch

With the complete changeover in Philly, I thought it wouldn’t be fair to assess this team with last year’s play splits. Instead, I’ve opted to look at splits from Kansas City in 2014 and 2015, which will be more representative of how Doug Pederson should call plays in his first season as head coach.

kc_split_2015
kc_split_2014

What I don’t believe will happen, however, is the positive game scripts we see above. While this team should be competitive, the lack of upside at QB (whether Daniel or Wentz plays) is very limited. I expect this will be one of the slower-paced, lower-scoring teams in the league. If they win 6 games, it will be an over-achievement in my opinion.

Washington

  o.snapsgmspa.drpbkpa.skpa.ydpa.tdpa.intru.attru.ydru.tdfpt.4ptfpt.6pt
WAS.QBTMTeam990.016.0554.430.53929.324.914.130.561.00.8239.3289.2
WAS.QB1Kirk Cousins990.016.0554.430.53929.324.914.130.561.00.8239.3289.2
WAS.QB2Colt McCoy
WAS.QB3

was_sch

Washington came on strong in the back half of last season. As you can see below, they executed less than 1/8 of their snaps behind more than 3 points. During the first half, however, they didn’t enjoy many leads (32 snaps ahead by more than a TD).

was_split_19
was_split_1017What we do see, however, is a firm commitment to Kirk Cousins and the passing game over the course of the season. Play splits in close games (within a TD) shifted from run heavy in weeks 1-9, to pass-heavy in weeks 10-17. I think we will see that trend continue, especially given the seemingly shaky state of Washington’s running back situation.

While I don’t believe we will see this wild discrepancy in play splits between seasonal halves, we can likely look to Gruden’s tendencies in Cincinnati for some further guidance.

was_split_cin14

Conclusion

That wraps up QB projections for the 2016 season. Hopefully these will provide some insight into team tendencies in 2016, as well as provide indications of QBs that might crush their ADP. In particular, I see these QBs as the best bets to return QB1 value at QB2/3 pricing:

  • Matt Stafford
  • Eli Manning
  • Joe Flacco
  • Kirk Cousins
  • Robert Griffin
  • Alex Smith
  • Marcus Mariota

As well as QBs who I feel will be a letdown at their current ADP:

  • Ben Roethlisberger
  • Dak Prescott
  • Derek Carr
  • Andy Dalton
  • Blake Bortles
  • Matt Ryan

Good luck in your drafts!

As always, if you have questions about the process, or want to challenge some of the projections, please feel free to find me on Twitter @FantasyADHD

Josh Hornsby

Josh Hornsby leads engineering teams in the oil & gas industry. His background in new product development, combined with nearly 20 years of data-driven fantasy experience, compels him to think outside the box and wreck the echo chamber of current fantasy analysis. Josh loves to challenge popular thinking and typically does so with numbers in hand. You can find him on Twitter @FantasyADHD

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