2016 2QB Dynasty Musings

2016 2QB Dynasty Musings

Dynasty fantasy football isn’t my forte. As much fun as it sounds managing a fantasy franchise all year long I can’t make the time commitment dynasty leagues require from owners. …

When I’m not knowledgeable in a certain field I try my best to surround myself with experts whose opinions and insight I can lean on and trust. When it comes to dynasty fantasy football, the experts in the field are the fine folks over at DynastyLeagueFootball.com.

While their 2QB dynasty coverage isn’t as vast as their traditional dynasty content, they have made a concentrated effort to provide more 2QB dynasty content. They have 2QB dynasty rankings and 2QB dynasty ADP data from one of the best in the business, Ryan McDowell.

It was very appreciated by the 2QB community when McDowell got the ball rolling with some 2QB ADP data, even if it’s based on a small sample size of two January 2QB mock drafts. It might not be much, but it’s something to go off of.

After looking at the 2QB Dynasty ADP data McDowell graciously provided, here is the quarterback breakdown:

*Four quarterbacks selected in the top-12 (Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson); three in the top-10.
*Eight signal callers were taken within the first 24 picks.
*The top-50 saw 15 quarterbacks selected, and 26 were drafted within the first 100 picks.
*There were a total of 38 quarterbacks selected (out of 240 picks).

Below is a list of the quarterback ADP:

QB1Andrew Luck6
QB2Cam Newton6
QB3Aaron Rodgers6
QB4Russel Wilson12
QB5Jameis Winston13
QB6Blake Bortles13.5
QB7Derek Carr19
QB8Marcus Mariota25
QB9Ben Roethlisberger28.5
QB10Kirk Cousins36.5
QB11Tom Brady37
QB12Andy Dalton41.5
QB13Teddy Bridgewater 44
QB14Tyrod Taylor45.5
QB15Ryan Tannehill46
QB16Matthew Stafford54
QB17Matt Ryan54.5
QB18Philip Rivers57.5
QB19Carson Palmer62
QB20Eli Manning74
QB21Jay Cutler74
QB22Drew Brees75
QB23Tony Romo85.5
QB24Brock Osweiler86.6
QB25Alex Smith88
QB26Joe Flacco88.5
QB27Colin Kaepernick104
QB28Sam Bradford118.5
QB29Robert Griffin III142
QB30Brian Hoyer147
QB31Peyton Manning161
QB32Jimmy Garoppolo167
QB33Johnny Manziel197.5
QB34Blaine Gabbert225.5
QB35Nick Foles228.5
QB36Geno Smith 232.5
QB37Derek Anderson236.5
QB38Josh McCown239.5

The general thought process when it comes to 2QB/Superflex fantasy football leagues is that you need two elite signal callers to be competitive. I don’t necessarily think that’s true, as there is value to be had at the quarterback position later in drafts.

However, if you’re adamant you need/want to go QB-QB or grab two signal callers early, you should be aware of the cost associated with that particular draft strategy.

We see Luck, Newton, Rodgers, and Wilson will cost you a first round pick, assuming a 2QB dynasty league of 12 teams. With Jameis Winston (ADP of 13) and Blake Bortles (ADP of 13.5) nearly crashing the first round.

If any quarterback is worthy of a first round selection in a 2QB dynasty startup draft it would be the likes of Luck, Newton, Rodgers, and Wilson. One year of production from Winston and Bortles makes them risky selections, especially in the first round. Pulling the trigger on either young signal caller within the first three rounds sounds like a risky proposition.

In order to better understand, let’s visualize what going QB-QB entails, drafting from the 1.12 slot.

Based on the ADP data, Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston would be our first two picks. The quarterback position is most definitely solidified, but we’ve also bypassed our chance at rostering a bonafide RB1 or WR1.

We won’t be back on the clock until the 3.12 and 4.01 picks, or the 36th and 37th overall picks, respectively.

Instead of drafting and rostering elite talents at running back like Le’Veon Bell/David Johnson or a wide receiver such as Sammy Watkins/Alshon Jeffery, we’re now looking at the Devante Parker/Dorial Green-Beckham tier at wideout and TJ Yeldon/Doug Martin tier at running back.

You’ll also see, based on the ADP data, the likes of Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor are available in the mid-rounds. I can’t speak for everyone, as each 2QB dynasty drafter is unique, values players differently, and has their own way of roster building, but, for myself personally, a start of Mike Evans/Le’Veon Bell would be preferable to Wilson/Winston.

The quarterback position is deep enough with solid options, I feel comfortable bypassing the early round quarterbacks and attacking the mid-to-late round tiers.

According to the ADP, the sweet spot for me would begin around Carson Palmer at 62 overall (QB19), all the way to Joe Flacco at 88.5 overall (QB26). You could include Matt Ryan (54.5 ADP-QB17) and Philip Rivers (57.5 ADP-QB18) in that tier as well, but they’re just a tad more expensive.

Of this tier, the signal callers I would target are Palmer, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Alex Smith, and Joe Flacco. One thing that immediately jumps out is age. They’re all in their 30s, with Flacco (31) the youngest and Brees (37) the oldest.

In my limited dynasty playing career, I’ve noticed you can get a discount on veterans in startups. Drafters are willing to pay the price for the sexier, younger players, rather than get stuck with boring ole’ Joe(s) (Flacco).

This leaves us with an opportunity to exploit draft tendencies to our benefit, while still building a competitive roster.

Flacco (5), Brees (6) Eli (7), Smith (7), and Palmer (8) each had five or more top-12 (QB1) scoring fantasy weeks in 2015. Getting that type of high-end fantasy production later in the draft allows you flexibility in bypassing using early round draft capital on the position, and instead focus on filling out your roster with elite players at running back and wide receiver/tight end.

The fantastic thing about 2QB leagues, be it redraft or dynasty, is there is no one right way to draft. There are multiple ways to attack 2QB leagues, and draft strategy varies from owner to owner. What this 2QB dynasty ADP data allows us to do is formulate draft strategies, and determine when to plan for quarterback runs. Because they will happen.

Dynasty 2QB leagues can be even more outrageous than redraft leagues when it comes to quarterback runs because you’re locking up your signal callers for what feels like an eternity. Miss out on Bortles in redraft and you can draft him next year. Miss out on Bortles in dynasty and it might cost you a couple of first round picks to trade for him.

Not every owner drafting in a 2QB dynasty startup will feel comfortable leaving the draft without a stud QB1. If you fall into that category, you might want to consider a ‘Studs & Streaming’ approach to your draft, where you can split the difference between going quarterback early and waiting on the position. You can learn more about the ‘Studs & Streaming’ draft strategy for 2QB leagues in our 2QB draft strategy section.

Hopefully taking a peek at McDowell’s 2QB dynasty ADP sheds some light into what it’s like to draft in a startup 2QB dynasty league and gives you some idea as to how the quarterback position is picked apart. If you’re interested, you can check out my Top 200 overall 2QB dynasty rankings here.

What’s your draft strategy in a 2QB/Superflex dynasty league? Were there any surprises in the ADP data? Like Kirk Cousins going ahead of Tom Brady, for example? Let us know in the comments section how you tackle 2QB/Superflex dynasty leagues.

Salvatore Stefanile

Salvatore Stefanile is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) and has been playing fantasy football since his high school days. He is a proponent of 2QB fantasy football leagues and his work has been featured on XN Sports, RotoViz, and Rotoworld. His writing on 2QB fantasy football leagues earned him the FSWA award for 'Best Fantasy Football On-Going Series' in 2013. He earned a second FSWA nomination in 2015. You can follow him on Twitter @2QBFFB

Latest posts by Salvatore Stefanile (see all)

8 thoughts on “2016 2QB Dynasty Musings”

  • While I agree with most of your article and points, in general, I would like comment on what you said about passing up bonafide WR1/RB1 players.

    This is true, but there is an aspect you did not consider. Signal callers are truly a rare breed, and while new QBs enter the NFL every year, very, very few of them become actual starters and fewer still hold on to a starting job for more than a year or two. They’re a commodity, and that’s actually what the 2QB system is all about – treating them as the value they represent in the NFL.

    While you may be passing up RB1/WR1 tier talent, you are solidifying yourself in the rarest slot possible. QBs become very valuable and true gunslingers command a high price in trade. The likelihood of drafting a solid starter in the years to come is not good, while WRs and RBs come off the boat by the, uh, boatload and have a higher percentage chance of realizing their potential.

    Dynasty is about fielding a team over the long-term. Having two starters right out of the gate can set you up to compete for 10+ years, giving you the time to find and upgrade other positions over time via trading and drafting.

    I am of the same mind that you don’t have to go QB/QB in a startup 2QB dynasty draft. There is certainly value elsewhere, but that value starts getting really sketchy the longer you wait to even get your first field general.

    As for my own strategy, I generally prefer to go QB first, then usually WR, then survey the field and flex my strategy from there. No matter what, I am most apt to draft my first QB in the first two rounds, and probably 2 of them out of the first 3 or 4 rounds.

    As an example of a startup I was in last year (2015), I drafted Antonio Brown in the first round. QBs flew off the board by the time my next pick came, but I ended up with Winston and Stafford as my QBs, as well as a prospect in Osweiller. By the end of the year, I also managed a trade for Le’Veon Bell via picks, prospects, and veterans to a competing team. My attempts to trade for an elite QB have not come to fruition. Every foreseeable starter is taken and will only sell for a premium … and then some.

    My team was not competitive last year, by choice, and because of the Bell trade, yet it put me in position to go strong after free agents early in the year with our free agent auction bid in which I was able to acquire Rawls, Diggs, Barnidge, and a handful of others without worrying about saving my money for the stretch.

    This next year, I can actually begin to compete, but I think if I had waited longer at QB my future would be bleak. I likely could have been stuck with the likes of Kaepernick, Hoyer, Manziel or Foles. That would not have been a good time.

    Thank you for the article!

    • Hey Brice!

      Thanks for the comment and digging deep into the article. Truly appreciate it. Sorry it took so long for me to get back to you. Been a little busy the past couple of days.

      I fully agree productive quarterbacks who are in a good, long-term situation are valuable commodities. Especially in 2QB dynasty leagues. That’s not something I would argue. Nor would I argue how much they can net you in a trade. You have to pay a pretty penny to get your hands on a Cam Newton/Aaron Rodgers/Andrew Luck type via trade in 2QB leagues.

      For me, personally, and this a personal preference, the price to draft such a signal caller is high in 2QB dynasty startup drafts. Of course, whoever you select in the early rounds is going to cost you. It’s just that I would rather use that draft capital on a WR1/RB1 and then manage my QBs via the mid/late round or trade, as I think you can get starting caliber signal caller(s) later.

      I do admit that can be risky, and a big part of waiting on quarterbacks revolves around your risk tolerance. I tend to have a risky side to me in fantasy.

      Like you mention with your strategy, flexibility is key, and just because I prefer to wait on QB doesn’t mean I always do. If the board tells me the best value is QB, I’ll go QB. At the end of the day, we all want to build the best possible roster.

      A Winston/Stafford/Osweiler trio seems pretty appealing to me. Winston is quite the asset to own in dynasty leagues these days. Sounds like you were able to build a team that will compete for the long haul. Good luck!

      • Thanks for the reply.

        Again, just a thought. I absolutely agree, flexibility is key and every draft is different … even with the same people!

        My team is starting to come along. Just today I made a pretty major trade. It was hard to do, and I can only hope it really pays off, but I traded away Antonio Brown, Jordan Matthews, Latavius Murray, Buck Allen, and a 2017 1st. In return, I received Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Jay Ajayi, and a 2017 2nd. Took a hit at RB, but I hope the upgrade at WR does me well.

        I’m praying Osweiller with the Texans pans out, as I really think my gamble on Stafford isn’t going to come to fruition unless they sign some major talent opposite Tate.

        At any rate, thanks again, I’ll be on the lookout for more quality content here!

        • No need to thank me. We want to make sure we get back to everybody’s comments.

          The great thing about 2QB leagues is how many different ways you can build a team. That’s a blockbuster of a trade that looks to be a win for both sides. Some major pieces moving both ways.

          I think many people are hoping Osweiler pans out, especially his 2QB owners. I’ll be tuning in with a keen eye to see how it goes.

          Thanks for reading. We appreciate it!

  • We have decided to convert our standard scoring keeper league to a superflex league starting this year. We get 3 keepers per year and I have some decisions to make now.

    I’m excited to be switching it up but would love to hear opinions on my keepers.

    My viable choices are:

    Luck (For sure)
    Carlos Hyde
    Latavious Murray
    Brandon Marshall
    TY Hilton

    I think I’m leaning toward Luck, Ben and Hyde but I could talk myself in to any of them (except probably Hilton).

    What do you guys think?

    • Welcome to the world of Superflex, Louie. Are there any other stipulations to your keepers? Do they have a round value attached to them? Or your league’s first round basically starting in the fourth? Can you keep the same keeper next year and each subsequent year? The more details you can give us the better we can answer. Thanks.

    • Also, would be interesting to know if there’s a penalty for NOT keeping somebody, and if there isn’t, what you think the potential is of some of the other teams not keeping anybody (might be able to get an earlier pick and upgrade somebody instead of keeping?)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.