Round-by-Round ADP QB Targets
|QB28||139.1||14.09||Griffin III, Robert|
*Our 2QB ADP is based on 10-team leagues and I have thus focused my analysis to that format. If you play in a 12-team or larger 2QB league just adjust the pick ADP to suit your needs.
Recommending a slew of similarly drafted QBs isn’t all that in depth though, so I wanted to break down our current 2QB ADP data round-by-round and highlight quarterback targets based on cost. Everyone is a value at a certain point and I thought this might be a helpful exercise when it comes to 2QB draft preparation.
Round 1 and Round 2
Cam Newton – 7.4 ADP – Pick 1.07 (QB1)
Aaron Rodgers – 10.1 ADP – Pick 1.10 (QB2)
Russell Wilson – 16.4 ADP – Pick 2.06 (QB3)
Andrew Luck – 17.5 ADP – Pick 2.07 (QB4)
Unless I’m in a 2QB league that is 14 teams or larger I won’t go QB-early and use a first or second round pick on the position. There are some instances I would consider it though, such as in leagues that award scoring bonuses for attempts and completions, but for the most part I’m anti quarterback this early. While each of the above four have cases to finish the season as the overall fantasy QB1 I wouldn’t consider them until round 3/4 at the earliest, which means I’ve priced myself out of this tier.
The opportunity cost of selecting a quarterback this early is too great, as you’re bypassing elite WRs or high-end RBs. For example, if you hold the 1.01 pick and go with Cam Newton, that means when you’re on the clock in round three your top WR and RB targets are Amari Cooper/Brandon Marshall and Devonta Freema/Eddie Lacy. However, if you skip out on QB at 1.01 you could draft Antonio Brown or David Johnson and still wind up with a quarterback like…
Drew Brees – 23.7 ADP – Pick 3.03 (QB5)
One argument to be made against going quarterback early, especially super early in the first two rounds, is the availability of Drew Brees at the top of round three. By not drafting a quarterback in the first two rounds you could theoretically kick your draft off of with an Antonio Brown/Dez Bryant/Drew Brees start at 1.01. Would you rather have that or Cam Newton/Dez Bryant/Amari Cooper? I’ve also seen Brees slip to the fourth and fifth rounds of 2QB drafts, making him an even greater value.
Ben Roethlisberger – 39.2 ADP – Pick 4.09 (QB6)
No Le’Veon Bell for three games and no Martavis Bryant for the whole season makes this ADP a head-scratcher. Anthony Amico pointed out Roethlisberger scores 5.6 points less/game without Bryant in the lineup. If paying up for quarterback early, you’re better off taking Brees a round earlier than Big Ben at his current cost. The preferable move would be to skip out on quarterback in this round, unless one of the top-five guys slip, and draft someone from the available RB/WR tier. That tier includes the likes of Sammy Watkins, Mark Ingram, Demaryius Thomas and LeSean McCoy, according to our ADP.
Carson Palmer – 46.8 ADP – Pick 5.06 (QB7)
Tom Brady – 48.7 ADP – Pick 5.08 (QB8)
Drafting a quarterback out for four games of the season places a heavy emphasis on drafting later round options to fill the early season gap. I discussed Brady replacement options earlier in the offseason, with RG3 being a cost-effective one. If you don’t mind the four game loss of Brady and are taking a more forward-looking approach, he’s an even bigger discount than Brees and will most likely play at a top-six points per game level upon return.
Carson Palmer went from late-round gem (72.6 ADP/QB18) to fantasy QB1 status in 2015, and his draft cost has risen immensely as a result. The Cardinals offense is comprised of high-end talent at WR and RB and our own James Simpson feels Palmer can match or exceed his draft day cost. Palmer was as consistent as they came last year, finishing with eight QB1 (top-12) and 15 QB2 (top-24) finishes. However, he tailed off near the end of the season thanks to a finger injury. In his first 14 games, Palmer scored 17 or more fantasy points in 11 games. He didn’t reach that mark in his final three games (was pulled at halftime of Week 17). His age and the injury from last year are concerning and if I have avoided QBs to this point I’ll keep waiting.
Round 6 and Round 7
Blake Bortles – 54.5 ADP – Pick 6.04 (QB9)
Eli Manning – 57.8 ADP – Pick 6.07 (QB10)
Philip Rivers – 59.4 ADP – Pick 6.08 (QB11)
Derek Carr – 63.2 ADP – Pick 7.03 (QB12)
Jameis Winston – 66 ADP – Pick 7.06 (QB13)
Eli ends the QB1 tier in 10-team leagues, while Carr polishes it off in 12-team formats. Winston’s ADP is similar to Carr’s so it made sense to add him to this tier. Eli and Rivers have become darlings of the late-round community. They were both top-12 fantasy QBs in 2015 and finished on the high-end of the spectrum in terms of weekly QB1 (top-12) finishes. Offensive stability and another season with Odell Beckham to throw to, and a returning Keenan Allen for Rivers, puts both of these veteran quarterbacks on my target list. Joshua Lake has banged the drum all offseason for Rivers, while Ben Cummins has made the case as to why you should draft Eli.
This marks a good spot for both the QB-early contingent to draft their QB2 and the late-round QB believers to consider a QB1. The consistency and longevity of the vets has me leaning in their direction over the trio of Bortles, Carr, and Winston. Keep your eye on this tier and round in your 2QB draft, as it might be the sweet spot for an early-round QB2 run.
Tyrod Taylor – 77 ADP – Pick 8.07 (QB14)
Kirk Cousins – 79 ADP – Pick 8.09 (QB15)
Round eight marks the perfect spot for the LRQBers to pounce in the form of Tyrod Taylor and Kirk Cousins. If your draft matches up with our ADP you will have loaded up on WRs and RBs and can afford to pivot to the quarterback position. We’ve made it known how much we love Tyrod around these parts and feel his QB7 PPG pace from a year ago is within his range of outcomes. As for Cousins, he’s in a pass happy offense that added Josh Doctson to an already crowded stable of pass-catching weapons. If you’re at the turn and both are on the board it wouldn’t be out of line to settle your QB1 and QB2 slots by double-dipping with this duo. You can also draft just one and wait even longer to settle on your QB2.
Tony Romo – 81.1 ADP – Pick 9.01 (QB16)
Matthew Stafford – 83.2 ADP – Pick 9.03 (QB17)
Andy Dalton – 84.2 ADP – Pick 9.04 (QB18)
Marcus Mariota – 85.8 ADP – Pick 9.05 (QB19)
Romo and Stafford were crowned my top QB2 streaming combination for 2016, as their schedules pair up perfectly, and make for an ideal QB2 duo if you plan to go the studs and streaming route.
If you’re still on the LRQB train by this point you have your pick of four solid selections here. Prior to his 2015 injured season, Romo was a top-12 fantasy QB in his previous four seasons. Stafford bounced back from a 2014 season that saw him finish outside the top-12 for the first time since becoming a full-time starter in 2011 to record a QB9 finish in 2015. Dalton was on a tear last season, finishing as the QB11 in PPG and he had nine QB1 (top-12) performances before an injury cut short his season. If coachspeak of more designed Mariota runs comes to fruition his 17.5 PPG (QB18) stats from a year ago could see him leapfrog into low-end QB1 status.
If you haven’t noticed, we’re in round nine and the QB well is still plentiful.
Matt Ryan – 99.2 ADP – Pick 10.09 (QB20)
Ryan Tannehill – 99.5 ADP – Pick 10.09 (QB21)
The Ryan Bros. are being drafted similarly, but the fantasy community perceives their prospects differently. Ryan was a top-five drafted QB last year with an overall 2QB ADP of 27.5. Now’s he being drafted as a low-end QB2, thanks to his worst fantasy season since 2010. His 21 passing touchdowns were the fewest he threw since 2009, but he should see an uptick in passing touchdowns that will lead to better fantasy results. Ryan is a boring, veteran QB with low-upside drafters may ignore who could provide a steady floor.
Tannehill has been getting a lot of buzz this offseason as a fantasy breakout candidate. Our own TJ Calkins wrote a fantastic breakdown of Tannehill’s potential in Adam Gase’s offense, and he sees QB1 upside. If you’re looking for this year’s Kirk Cousins or Blake Bortles it could be Tannehill, who has a recent top-10 fantasy finish (QB8 in 2014).
Ryan Fitzpatrick – 106.2 ADP – Pick 11.06 (QB22)
Joe Flacco – 106.3 ADP – Pick 11.06 (QB23)
Fitzpatrick went from undrafted to QB1 last year and returns to an even better situation. Chan Gailey, Eric Decker, and Brandon Marshall are still around. Chris Ivory is gone, replaced by Matt Forte and more work for Bilal Powell. Denny Carter’s equity score puts Fitzpatrick in the QB1 tier for this season. It’s all systems go for FitzMagic.
It’s easy to forget about Joe Flacco, but he did finish as a top-12 fantasy QB in five of his ten full games last year. With Marc Trestman calling plays again for the Ravens, Flacco is going to walk into a pass heavy offense and weapons galore (if all healthy). According to RotoViz’s 14Team Mocker, Trestman offenses have been in the top-two of pass attempts three times and finished no worse than 16 in his 11 seasons as a head coach or coordinator. Flacco has as good a shot as any LRQB to finish in the top-ten at season’s end.
Alex Smith – 113.5 ADP – Pick 12.03 (QB24)
It’s fitting Alex Smith is in a tier all on his own. My Smith profile from earlier this offseason paints a picture of how he can be an integral part of any 2QB team this year. Selecting a quarterback with two top-15 finishes in the last three years and one who had seven QB1 (top-12) performances last year is the definition of value. Not to mention the cupboard is stocked with top-end talent at RB (Jamaal Charles), WR (Jeremy Maclin), and TE (Travis Kelce). In 2QB drafts that count I’m taking Alex Smith every time.
Jay Cutler – 123.2 ADP – Pick 13.03 (QB25)
Brock Osweiler – 128.3 ADP – Pick 12.08 (QB26)
Teddy Bridgewater – 129 ADP – Pick 13.09 (QB27)
Cutler and Osweiler each have one thing in common: they’re attached to high-end/early-round wide receiver target hogs in Alshon Jeffery and DeAndre Hopkins, respectively. This gives them a bit of a safety net when it comes to the LRQB tier and they’re both affordable. Jeff Dumont argues Bridgewater is a value pick, and while the price is right, the offense is not suitable for a Bridgewater breakout.
Robert Griffin III – 139.1 ADP – Pick 14.09 (QB28)
What a downfall for RG3. From top-five fantasy QB in his rookie season to being benched for Kirk Cousins last year. RG3 lived up to and surpassed the hype right out of the gate, but never lived up to it in subsequent years. A second chance in Cleveland has 2QBers tentative, but his recent preseason play is starting to quell some doubt.
At the price of a QB3, RG3 can easily outproduce his draft day cost, and when healthy has some of the highest upside of any quarterback. Draft him as your QB3 and you could be rewarded immensely. Or he could get injured in Week 1 and replaced by Josh McCown rest of season. Either way it won’t cost you much to find out. However, our ADP does show Devin Funchess has a round 14 round ADP, so it might be an easy decision to fade RG3 for a high upside WR like Funchess or Philip Dorsett.
Sam Bradford – 141.3 ADP – Pick 15.01 (QB29)
Jared Goff – 143.3 ADP – Pick 15.03 (QB30)
Cody Kessler 144.3 ADP – Pick 15.04 (QB31)
Blaine Gabbert – 146.3 ADP – Pick 15.06 (QB32)
Colin Kaepernick – 146.7 ADP – Pick 15.06 (QB33)
Jimmy Garoppolo – 149.7 ADP – Pick 15.09 (QB34)
This is a yucky tier of signal callers, but so too is RB and WR for the most part. I would take a shot on whoever starts for the 49ers, which looks to be Blaine Gabbert as of now. He was a QB2 in 7-of-8 games he started last year and averaged nearly 17 PPG, providing a solid floor. Plus Chip Kelly runs the show now and he has had a positive impact on the quarterback position from a fantasy perspective.
Notable Undrafted Quarterbacks
Geno Smith, Josh McCown, Mark Sanchez/Trevor Siemian, Dak Prescott, Chase Daniel, Case Keenum
Experienced 2QBers know how valuable backup quarterbacks are. Last year saw 53 different quarterbacks start at least one game so we know preseason backups will start. The above list features at least one starter (Denver Broncos) and backups you could be running to pick up off the wavier wire. While you might not have to use a draft pick on the above tier, don’t forget about them once the draft has ended.
Putting the QB Jigsaw Puzzle Together
Owners drafting out of the 1.01 slot have the hardest time determining if they should take a quarterback early or wait. Using our ADP, I have highlighted an early-QB team and a LRQB team drafting from the 1.01 slot to give you a visual of how each team could look.
|1.01 Early||1.01 Late|
|Round 1||Aaron Rodgers||Antonio Brown|
|Round 2||Dez Bryant||Dez Bryant|
|Round 3||Drew Brees||Brandon Marshall|
|Round 4||Sammy Watkins||Sammy Watkins|
|Round 5||Jeremy Maclin||Jeremy Maclin|
|Round 6||Larry Fitzgerald||Duke Johnson|
|Round 7||Duke Johnson||John Brown|
|Round 8||Emmanuel Sanders||Tyrod Taylor|
|Round 9||Melvin Gordon||Melvin Gordon|
|Round 10||Tyler Eifert||Tyler Eifert|
|Round 11||DeSean Jackson||TJ Yeldon|
|Round 12||Alex Smith||Alex Smith|
|Round 13||Antonio Gates||Antonio Gates|
|Round 14||Devin Funchess||Bilal Powell|
|Round 15||Darren Sproles||Blaine Gabbert|
|QB1||Aaron Rodgers||Tyrod Taylor|
|QB2||Drew Brees||Alex Smith|
|RB1||Duke Johnson||Duke Johnson|
|RB2||Melvin Gordon||Melvin Gordon|
|WR1||Dez Bryant||Antonio Brown|
|WR2||Sammy Watkins||Dez Bryant|
|WR3||Jeremy Maclin||Brandon Marshall|
|TE1||Tyler Eifert||Tyler Eifert|
|Bench||Larry Fitzgerald||Sammy Watkins|
|Emmanuel Sanders||Jeremy Maclin|
|DeSean Jackson||John Brown|
|Alex Smith||TJ Yeldon|
|Antonio Gates||Antonio Gates|
|Devin Funchess||Bilal Powell|
|Darren Sproles||Blaine Gabbert|
2QB ADP QB Targets TL;DR
|QB28||139.1||14.09||Griffin III, Robert|
I told you that QB14-QB25 tier was stacked.
***Our 2QB ADP is updated continuously throughout the offseason so the data cited above could differ from what you’re reading depending on the date.