May 2016 QB ADP Results

May 2016 QB ADP Results

During May we ran a series of 2QB mock drafts to create ADP data you can use to help prepare for your upcoming redraft leagues. … In total, we were able to fill 11 mock drafts of the ten-team variety. The starting lineups consisted of: 2QB/2RB/3WR/1TE. Notable scoring settings: .5 PPR/4 points per passing touchdown.

You can view the entire May 2016 2QB redraft ADP on our Redraft ADP Page. I wanted to take a moment to highlight where and when quarterbacks were being drafted because zeroing in solely on quarterback ADP can help us formulate a draft strategy.

Astute 2QBers know how important signal callers are in 2QB and Superflex formats. There are a variety of ways you can attack the position and fill out the rest of your team through the draft. It’s not just about drafting Cam Newton at 1.01 and logging out. There’s nuance to drafting quarterbacks and you can use ADP as a tool to give you an advantage over your league mates.

May 2016 QB ADP By the Numbers

Below is a chart highlighting the QB ADP, as well as where each passer was taken in each of the 11 drafts:

1Newton, Cam7611116331411138
2Luck, Andrew11.7127618420135102113
3Rodgers, Aaron12.17314151261013162611
4Wilson, Russell17.920119316152221192932
5Brees, Drew313723233719232831273558
6Roethlisberger, Ben34.35421332240253432373247
7Brady, Tom38.34936454043274038343831
8Palmer, Carson43.65835444546243554354559
9Bortles, Blake52.94653354937625578584168
10Rivers, Philip56.67752604752494439499460
11Manning, Eli58.98849516051515262536764
12Carr, Derek62.85961526762605969625387
13Winston, Jameis67.280445777586360772071132
14Romo, Tony70.611068657154465185756290
15Mariota, Marcus72.510255887867644771429786
16Dalton, Andy72.710469587053545475729992
17Cousins, Kirk74.39484666281566473687099
18Taylor, Tyrod75.499717372764856816585103
19Ryan, Matt76.5728867766852785774110100
20Stafford, Matthew81.69199797380616598779877
21Tannehill, Ryan93.5981021047482799510481108101
22Smith, Alex100.5113105918290104966698122139
23Cutler, Jay100.6111107948186919710883124125
24Flacco, Joe108.71501229086948811010791117141
25Fitzpatrick, Ryan109108109829311112292112109127134
26Bridgewater, Teddy120.711612310310414189118126135138135
27Osweiler, Brock12312513414095117113120121105140143
28Griffin III, Robert134.6150131109105143125149136133150150
29Goff, Jared139.2150144120121136134128150150150148
30Bradford, Sam139.9150150116129133126135150150150150
31Wentz, Carson14015015015015013215014215015015066
32Kaepernick, Colin141.6150146119150150150122122150149150
33Sanchez, Mark143.5123150150150150111149150150145150
34Lynch, Paxton147.4150150131150145150149150150150146
35Gabbert, Blaine148.7150145148144150150149150150150150
36Garoppolo, Jimmy149.8150150150150149150149150150150150

Key Takeaways

It was quite a shock, at first, to see only Cam Newton with a first round ADP out of 36 quarterbacks drafted. And that only a total of four were taken within the first two rounds (Newton, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson). Last year, Luck and Rodgers were the top-two overall drafted players in 2QB leagues.

Each year, quarterbacks are going later and later in 2QB leagues and each year it seems to make more sense to wait on the position and fill out the rest of your roster with high-end talent before attacking the quarterback position.

Based on this ADP, you could come away with a starting quarterback duo of Alex Smith (ADP – 100.5) and Joe Flacco (ADP – 108.7), and all it would cost you is a couple of late round picks (between rounds 10 to 12).

Alex Smith and Joe Flacco… Sitting in a Tree…

You might scoff at relying on Alex Smith and Joe Flacco, but according to the data in our QB Stat Cards, the duo of Smith and Flacco combined for 7 QB1 (Top-10) weekly finishes last year. That was only two off the mark of Newton.

Alex Smith Stat Card Fantasy

Joe Flacco Stat Card Fantasy

While, yes Newton was the overall fantasy QB1 in 2015, he also comes with an overall ADP of 7.0 this year. Opportunity cost plays a large role at the quarterback position in 2QB leagues when it comes to draft strategy, and it would take a first round pick to secure Newton’s services.

Not everyone feels comfortable waiting an unbearably long time in drafts, only to come away with Alex Smith and Joe Flacco as their quarterbacks. It’s understandable to feel afraid of LRQB in 2QB leagues. The security that comes with selecting an early-round signal caller brings an ease of mind to owners. With LRQB sweeping the nation, and thus lowering the ADP of quarterbacks, you are getting a discount of sorts if you draft a quarterback early.

Beyond the first tier of QB ADP, fantasy QB1 stalwarts Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tom Brady were each drafted on average in the early-to-mid fourth rounds.

Brees has finished no worse than QB6 the last four seasons, only Cam Newton scored more fantasy points than Brady last season, and in Roethlisberger’s most recent full 16-game season (2014) he was the overall fantasy QB5.

It used to be common practice that a group of consistently top-end scoring fantasy quarterbacks would go in the first or second round. A two-three round discount might not seem like a lot, but for potential consistent QB1s it’s worth considering a top-heavy quarterback approach this draft season.

Still, as appealing as it may be to draft Andrew Luck and Tom Brady on to the same team, the mid-to-late rounds provide us with a bevy of reliable fantasy signal callers we can cobble a weekly starting duo from.

The Late Round Streamers Pantry is Full Again in 2016

Blake Bortles (QB4), Carson Palmer (QB5), Kirk Cousins (QB8), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB11) each finished in the top-12 of fantasy scoring at the quarterback position last season, yet the highest ADP of the foursome belonged to Palmer (QB18 – 72.6 ADP). Bortles was barely drafted with an ADP of 125 (QB31), and both Fitzpatrick and Cousins went largely undrafted.

Starting at QB13 with Jameis Winston (ADP of 67.2) all the way down to Mark Sanchez (QB33 – 143.5 ADP)/Paxton Lynch (QB34 – 147.4 ADP), you’re looking at an unusually high number of valid options you can pick and choose from to form a weekly streaming committee this season. The depth at quarterback grows each year and for the LRQB and streaming crowd, you’re rewarded for your wait.

In the most recent May 2QB mock I participated in, the first quarterback I selected was Eli Manning at 6.03. This allowed me to stock up on RB/WR/TE and still come away with a viable QB1 option in the form of the guy-who-gets-to-throw-to-Odell-Beckham. Even that seems late for Eli, who last year had an ADP of 44 and this year is at 58.9.

In Conclusion

Whatever your draft strategy, the options are wide open in 2QB leagues this year, giving you more than one way to build your roster. Unlike in traditional 1QB leagues, where LRQB has become the standard and taken away much, if not all, strategy from drafting quarterbacks.

By taking a snapshot of the quarterback ADP landscape in 2QB leagues we have an idea how the community views the quarterback position. This provides us with an opportunity to chart the perfect time to attack both the QB1 and QB2 slots during the draft, which in turn paints a clearer picture in terms of overall draft strategy.

If you would like to participate in our June set of 2QB mock drafts hit us up on Twitter via @TwoQBs and we’ll save you a spot.

*Stats used in the article courtesy of Fantasydata and TwoQBs

Salvatore Stefanile

Salvatore Stefanile is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) and has been playing fantasy football since his high school days. He is a proponent of 2QB fantasy football leagues and his work has been featured on XN Sports, RotoViz, and Rotoworld. His writing on 2QB fantasy football leagues earned him the FSWA award for 'Best Fantasy Football On-Going Series' in 2013. He earned a second FSWA nomination in 2015. You can follow him on Twitter @2QBFFB

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