May 2016 QB ADP Results
During May we ran a series of 2QB mock drafts to create ADP data you can use to help prepare for your upcoming redraft leagues. … In total, we were able to fill 11 mock drafts of the ten-team variety. The starting lineups consisted of: 2QB/2RB/3WR/1TE. Notable scoring settings: .5 PPR/4 points per passing touchdown.
You can view the entire May 2016 2QB redraft ADP on our Redraft ADP Page. I wanted to take a moment to highlight where and when quarterbacks were being drafted because zeroing in solely on quarterback ADP can help us formulate a draft strategy.
Astute 2QBers know how important signal callers are in 2QB and Superflex formats. There are a variety of ways you can attack the position and fill out the rest of your team through the draft. It’s not just about drafting Cam Newton at 1.01 and logging out. There’s nuance to drafting quarterbacks and you can use ADP as a tool to give you an advantage over your league mates.
May 2016 QB ADP By the Numbers
Below is a chart highlighting the QB ADP, as well as where each passer was taken in each of the 11 drafts:
|28||Griffin III, Robert||134.6||150||131||109||105||143||125||149||136||133||150||150|
It was quite a shock, at first, to see only Cam Newton with a first round ADP out of 36 quarterbacks drafted. And that only a total of four were taken within the first two rounds (Newton, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson). Last year, Luck and Rodgers were the top-two overall drafted players in 2QB leagues.
Each year, quarterbacks are going later and later in 2QB leagues and each year it seems to make more sense to wait on the position and fill out the rest of your roster with high-end talent before attacking the quarterback position.
Based on this ADP, you could come away with a starting quarterback duo of Alex Smith (ADP – 100.5) and Joe Flacco (ADP – 108.7), and all it would cost you is a couple of late round picks (between rounds 10 to 12).
Alex Smith and Joe Flacco… Sitting in a Tree…
You might scoff at relying on Alex Smith and Joe Flacco, but according to the data in our QB Stat Cards, the duo of Smith and Flacco combined for 7 QB1 (Top-10) weekly finishes last year. That was only two off the mark of Newton.
While, yes Newton was the overall fantasy QB1 in 2015, he also comes with an overall ADP of 7.0 this year. Opportunity cost plays a large role at the quarterback position in 2QB leagues when it comes to draft strategy, and it would take a first round pick to secure Newton’s services.
Not everyone feels comfortable waiting an unbearably long time in drafts, only to come away with Alex Smith and Joe Flacco as their quarterbacks. It’s understandable to feel afraid of LRQB in 2QB leagues. The security that comes with selecting an early-round signal caller brings an ease of mind to owners. With LRQB sweeping the nation, and thus lowering the ADP of quarterbacks, you are getting a discount of sorts if you draft a quarterback early.
Beyond the first tier of QB ADP, fantasy QB1 stalwarts Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tom Brady were each drafted on average in the early-to-mid fourth rounds.
Brees has finished no worse than QB6 the last four seasons, only Cam Newton scored more fantasy points than Brady last season, and in Roethlisberger’s most recent full 16-game season (2014) he was the overall fantasy QB5.
It used to be common practice that a group of consistently top-end scoring fantasy quarterbacks would go in the first or second round. A two-three round discount might not seem like a lot, but for potential consistent QB1s it’s worth considering a top-heavy quarterback approach this draft season.
Still, as appealing as it may be to draft Andrew Luck and Tom Brady on to the same team, the mid-to-late rounds provide us with a bevy of reliable fantasy signal callers we can cobble a weekly starting duo from.
The Late Round Streamers Pantry is Full Again in 2016
Blake Bortles (QB4), Carson Palmer (QB5), Kirk Cousins (QB8), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB11) each finished in the top-12 of fantasy scoring at the quarterback position last season, yet the highest ADP of the foursome belonged to Palmer (QB18 – 72.6 ADP). Bortles was barely drafted with an ADP of 125 (QB31), and both Fitzpatrick and Cousins went largely undrafted.
Starting at QB13 with Jameis Winston (ADP of 67.2) all the way down to Mark Sanchez (QB33 – 143.5 ADP)/Paxton Lynch (QB34 – 147.4 ADP), you’re looking at an unusually high number of valid options you can pick and choose from to form a weekly streaming committee this season. The depth at quarterback grows each year and for the LRQB and streaming crowd, you’re rewarded for your wait.
In the most recent May 2QB mock I participated in, the first quarterback I selected was Eli Manning at 6.03. This allowed me to stock up on RB/WR/TE and still come away with a viable QB1 option in the form of the guy-who-gets-to-throw-to-Odell-Beckham. Even that seems late for Eli, who last year had an ADP of 44 and this year is at 58.9.
Whatever your draft strategy, the options are wide open in 2QB leagues this year, giving you more than one way to build your roster. Unlike in traditional 1QB leagues, where LRQB has become the standard and taken away much, if not all, strategy from drafting quarterbacks.
By taking a snapshot of the quarterback ADP landscape in 2QB leagues we have an idea how the community views the quarterback position. This provides us with an opportunity to chart the perfect time to attack both the QB1 and QB2 slots during the draft, which in turn paints a clearer picture in terms of overall draft strategy.
If you would like to participate in our June set of 2QB mock drafts hit us up on Twitter via @TwoQBs and we’ll save you a spot.