2QB Things We Learned: 2016 Week 3
Salvatore Stefanile recaps the third Sunday of the 2016 NFL regular season in his weekly 2QB Things We Learned blog, discussing TyGOAT, Wentz, and Siemian. …
Siemian, Wentz, Cousins, Tanny, Tyrod, Brissett, Keenum all currently top-12. Great week for 2QB'ers.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) September 26, 2016
All seven of the QBs Señor Reebs listed had a 2QB ADP of QB14 or below.
Following the Sunday Night Football game, Keenum actually dropped to QB14, but both quarterbacks from that game (Brian Hoyer and Dak Prescott) are currently in the top-12. Add it all up and only two of the current top-12 scoring fantasy signal callers of Week 3 were early-round quarterbacks this offseason (Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson). Drew Brees could make it three, and even if he does, that’s only 25 percent of QB1 tier.
Fantasy scoring weeks might not always looks like this, but the third week of the 2016 fantasy season has shown the attractiveness of 2QB leagues. Through three games, and with Matt Ryan and Brees left to play, five of the top-12 scoring fantasy quarterbacks on the season had a 2QB ADP of QB12 or higher. Drew Brees will likely make it six. The other six were either late-round options or undrafted afterthoughts in 1QB leagues, but not so much in 2QB leagues. If you want to play in a fantasy format where all quarterbacks matter, try a 2QB or Superflex league next season. Below are a few more takeaways from Week 3…
2QB Things We Learned: 2016 Week 3
1. Tyrod Taylor Gives Owners Hope
After his 5.54 fantasy point Week 1, and seeing his next two opponents were the New York Jets and the Arizona Cardinals, I cautioned patience with the man we affectionately refer to as TyGOAT. His slow start and two tough opponents made it easy to keep Taylor on your bench, if you had a viable alternative to start over him.
The beauty — and curse — of 2QB leagues is sometimes you don’t have a better option and are forced to start someone you wouldn’t have to in a start-one quarterback league. If you’re a Taylor owned forced to nervously start him the past two weeks you’ve been rewarded with a QB4 finish and a QB10 performance (pending Monday Night Football). That’s two straight QB1 (top-12) finishes and an average of 20.4 fantasy points.
Whether you started him or not the past two week, if you’re a Taylor owner you’re giddy with anticipation for his Week 5 to Week 7 matchups against Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Miami. Even Week 4 doesn’t seem as daunting as it once was. Prior to Brock Osweiler’s Week 3 dud – 7.14 fantasy points – against the Pats, they had allowed back-to-back QB1 (top-12) finishes to Carson Palmer and Ryan Tannehill.
Beginning in Week 5, Taylor faces a string of three straight favorable matchups where the three defenses have each allowed a top-4 fantasy finish to opposing signal callers (Pending MNF and if you combine NE QB points scored against Miami in Week 2). The next month could set up nicely for Taylor owners.
2. Carson Wentz Does it Again
In his first three career starts, Carson Wentz is averaging 256.3 passing yards, sports a 5:0 passing touchdown to interception ratio, is averaging 17.62 fantasy points, and regardless of Monday’s outcome, will have two top-12 finishes on his resume.
There was some skepticism, from myself included, when Wentz was announced as the starter days prior to the start of the 2016 NFL season. Having been sidelined with a rib injury in the preseason, we weren’t quite sure what to expect from Wentz. One thing we did know was that his early season schedule started off favourably with his first five matchups coming up against Cleveland, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Washington.
The Week 2 game script against Chicago didn’t play in Wentz’s favor, even though the team scored 29 points and he led them to six scoring drives, as only one came through the air (a two-yard scoring throw to Trey Burton). In three games, the Eagles have scored 29, 29, and 34 points. Wentz has led them to a total of 17 offensive scoring drives (seven field goals, five rushing touchdowns, and five passing touchdowns).
Next up for Wentz and the Eagles are Detroit and Washington. Those two teams have allowed the following:
DET – 29.3 points/game, 276 passing yards/game, 10 passing touchdowns (4,2,4), 26.1 fantasy points/game to opposing QBs (most in the league).
WAS – 27.3 points/game, 314 passing yards/game (300, 292, 350), 5 total touchdowns to QBs, (4 pass/1 rush), 18 fantasy points/game (12th-most).
That favorable schedule we pinpointed to possible Wentz success has played exactly as we hoped and looks to continue the next two weeks. After that it gets a tad more difficult with matchups against Minnesota and Dallas back-to-back. The Dallas matchup might not be that bad, as they’ve allowed the fantasy QB13, QB14, and current QB9 finish. The Vikings will be a tough one though.
If the rookie signal caller puts up two solid performances, you will have a very attractive trade chip on your hands. With Wentz being virtually undrafted in 2QB leagues this summer, you probably (hopefully) have two other solid quarterbacks on your team. And the Eagles have an early season bye in Week 4. Add those two selling points to his early high-end fantasy production and you will have buyers come knocking at your door looking to acquire Wentz.
Whether you should trade Wentz will depend on how strong your team is. If you feel your squad can make a real run at a championship, having a dependable QB3 could come handy later in the season. We’ve seen how injuries can take a toll on 2QB leagues, and 37 different quarterbacks have already started at least one game after Week 3. You don’t want to let Wentz go and then one of your other starters goes down, leaving you with a hole at one of your two QB slots. However, if your team is weak somewhere, perhaps at RB2 (who isn’t?) or WR3, then making a trade makes more sense. Whatever you decide, Wentz has been an early season difference maker.
3. Trevor Siemian … Your Current Week 3 Fantasy QB1 (Yes, You Read That Right)
Not sure who saw Trevor Siemian being the highest scoring fantasy quarterback of Week 3 heading into Monday Night Football, but if you did, would you like to write for TwoQBs? Last week was when the 2QB community was on Siemian, with an appealing matchup against an Indianapolis Colts defense that had allowed Matthew Stafford to score and finish as the QB4 in Week 1.
Fast forward to the end of Week 2 and Siemian scored 11.36 fantasy points, finishing outside the top-24. Definitely not good, Jim Bob. In his first two games, Siemian scored a combined 20.46 fantasy points. In Weeks 1 and 2 combined, 20 quarterback scored that many points in a single game.
The Broncos were 2-0 and the Game Manager tag had been applied to the second-year seventh-rounder. Then he exploded for 312 yards, four touchdowns, and 28.98 fantasy points. No matter what happens Monday night, Siemian will finish no worse than the fantasy QB3 this week.
The highest fantasy finish and the most points scored by a Broncos QB last season was QB4 – 29.74 fantasy points (Brock Osweiler). While both Peyton Manning and Osweiler had higher single-game passing totals, neither scored four touchdowns in a game. Also, Siemian’s Week 3 28.98 fantasy points was 26.5 percent of Manning’s 2015 total (Manning played in only ten games).
The Bengals have now allowed three straight quarterbacks to score 15 or more fantasy points and have given up a total of nine touchdowns. They might be a team to target against when it comes to QB streaming.
Siemian’s next seven matchups are against: Tampa Bay, Atlanta, San Diego, Houston, San Diego (again), Oakland, and New Orleans. When it comes to fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks, four of those teams are in the top-seven of most points allowed, giving up at least 19 points/game, and a fifth is ranked 13th (New Orleans). Houston is tied with Seattle for the third-fewest fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks with 10.1 fantasy points, but they did just give up almost 15 points to Jacoby Brissett in his first ever start.
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) September 26, 2016
Based on that tweet, it seems the Broncos allowed Siemian more freedom to throw deep and he rewarded them with two long touchdowns: a 41-yarder to Emmanuel Sanders and a 55 yard-pass to Demaryius Thomas (79% of the combined 96 yards of those TDs traveled through the air). That seems promising and makes Siemian an attractive streamer for the next month and a half-to-two months. However, if someone in your league is willing to give you a valuable asset coming off his four-touchdown game I would be hard-pressed to say no.