2QB Things We Learned: 2016 Week 4
Salvatore Stefanile recaps Week 4 of the 2016 NFL regular season in his weekly 2QB Things We Learned blog, discussing Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan. …
The Russell Wilson we all expected to produce like an early-round pick finally showed up in Week 4, throwing for 309 yards and three touchdowns on his way to a 23.86-fantasy point day, Brian Hoyer scored over 17 fantasy points (19.78-QB7) for the eighth time in his last 13 games, and Carson Palmer followed up his Week 3 dud (3.48 fantasy points) by scoring 11.52 against the Los Angeles Rams.
If you take a look at the fantasy QB scoring leaderboard for Week 4 it’s again a mixed back of early round- and late-round quarterbacks; a theme most likely to repeat itself all season long. No new quarterbacks started this week, but keep an eye on Trevor Siemian’s injury status. If Paxton Lynch (170 yards/1 touchdown, and 10.40 fantasy points in relief) were to start we could have yet another QB2 streamer on our hands. You can read my article on trading for Trevor Siemian and apply the favorable schedule analysis to Lynch. Below are a couple of other takeaways from Week 4…
2QB Things We Learned: 2016 Week 4
1. Ryan Tannehill Owners Should be Worried
From a fantasy perspective, Ryan Tannehill put up respectable fantasy numbers the first three weeks of the season. He was one of only three quarterbacks to score 15 or more fantasy points in each of the first three weeks and had two back-to-back top-ten finishes. Then Week 4 happened, where he scored a measly 7.56 fantasy points against Cincinnati, making him the current QB29. The previous three opponents to face the Bengals finished as the QB18 (Ryan Fitzpatrick), QB11 (Ben Roethlisberger), and QB1 (Trevor Siemian).
Quarterbacks put up stinkers all the time, so I’m not overly worried about Week 4 Tannehill’s performance. But there is some concern and I am worried Head Coach Adam Gase might have a wandering eye for the veteran backup quarterback on this team, Matt Moore. The Dolphins are currently 1-3, averaging 17.75 points/game (with two games of ten or less points scored). Gase has no ties to Tannehill (or Moore), but we’ve seen coaches bench QB1s before, thinking it could shake things up for the best.
Will that happen in Miami? It’s hard to predict, but if a change at quarterback would occur we’re looking at the possibility of Matt Moore or practice squader Brandon Doughty taking over. Those two are nothing more than names to monitor in your 2QB leagues this point. Until we hear rumblings from Gase the team might consider a quarterback change the course is to stick with Tannehill, but don’t be surprised if a switch at QB is made.
2. Matt Ryan is the Current 2QB Fantasy MVP
Positive Touchdown Regression was Matt Ryan’s nickname this fantasy offseason. There were a number of sharp fantasy analysts, who looked at Ryan’s 21 passing touchdowns from a year ago, his lowest since the 16 he threw his rookie year (2008), and said that number would go up in 2016. And up it has gone.
Matt Ryan has thrown 11 touchdowns in his first four games. He didn’t throw his 11th TD last year until Week 8.
— TwoQBs (@TwoQBs) October 2, 2016
Ryan is currently on pace to throw 44 touchdowns, which would eclipse his career high by 12. I’ll be the first to admit it’s silly to use a small four-game sample size to project Ryan’s touchdown totals, but it’s not out of the question to see him at least flirt with matching or surpassing his career high 32 passing touchdowns.
Heading into Week 4, Ryan was the only signal caller to finish as a top-12 fantasy QB in each of his three games (QB6, QB2, QB8). He’s currently the QB1 of Week 4 with only Eli Manning and Sam Bradford left to play. With 107.62 fantasy points scored on the season, Ryan is easily the highest scoring fantasy quarterback this season. Drew Brees trails him by 23.86 points in second place. With a final 2QB ADP of QB20 (102.5 overall), Ryan has become the best draft day value, as our own Joshua Lake predicted, and the first quarter 2QB fantasy MVP.
With an easy schedule to start the season (10 of the 16 QBs to face TB, OAK, NO, and CAR have finished as a top-10 scorer) it’s easy to wonder if Ryan can keep up his torrid pace? With upcoming matchups against Denver and Seattle it’s easy to say he’ll cool off. Many fantasy players still believe Carolina is a tough defense and if they aren’t degenerate stat diggers might be willing to part with a bounty to acquire THE fantasy QB1. Chances are if you drafted Ryan you probably did so as your QB2 or even QB3 and could afford to part with him. If the price is right I’d listen, as I’m not sure his trade value will be any higher than it is right now.
*Stats used in this article courtesy of FantasyData