Moving Targets: Week 2
Moving Targets is a weekly column focused on tidbits and trends from target data, with an eye toward forecasting future value spikes for fantasy players. … My focus will be on the target numbers themselves, highlighting a few I find interesting. Each section will include a short blurb of analysis, but mostly I will allow you — the wise reader — to draw the conclusions you wish from the data.
Note: Target data comes from the 4for4 Player Targets App.
- Larry Fitzgerald: 11 targets (32.4% of team targets), after 10 in Week 1
- Michael Floyd: 6 targets (17.7%), after 7 in Week 1
- John Brown: 3 targets (8.8%), after 4 in Week 1
Old Man Fitz is the real deal. He is a man on a mission, and Carson Palmer locks onto him all the time. Fitzgerald is one of my favorite WRs this year, and there is no sign of decline yet. More concerning, however, is John Brown’s disappearance this year. Perhaps it is ongoing injury concerns, but this looks like a declining role for the former star. I will not risk starting Brown on any of my fantasy teams until I see Palmer give him a more robust target day.
- Jacob Tamme: 8 targets (23.5%), after 8 in Week 1
- Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu: 5 targets (14.7%), after 8 each in Week 1
Recycling last week’s material: “Tamme is not an exciting option at tight end, but he should probably be rostered in PPR leagues at least.”
@ScottBarrettDFB Frankly, when you can throw 8 times per week to Jacob Tamme, you have to take that opportunity. Julio can wait.
— Joshua (@LakeTwoQBs) September 20, 2016
That tweet is meant to be read with a strong dose of sarcasm, for those who were unsure.
- Terrelle Pryor: 10 targets (30.3%), after 7 in Week 1
- Corey Coleman: 8 targets (24.2%), after 5 in Week 1
I have no idea what to make of the Cody Kessler-led Cleveland Browns we will see in Week 3, but I am intrigued by Terrelle Pryor. He led the team in his second consecutive week, with his second quarterback in as many weeks. Because Corey Coleman had the flashier plays in Week 2, Pryor is a name who might be slipping under the radar. He is worth a speculative add, because he is seeing volume in this offense, and targets have value, no matter how rough the offense looks.
Green Bay Packers
- Jordy Nelson: 11 targets (30.6%), after 9 in Week 1
- Randall Cobb: 7 targets (19.4%), after 8 in Week 1
- Davante Adams: 7 targets (19.4%), after 7 in Week 1
Last week I wrote that Davante Adams was not finished, and he proved it in Week 2. He isn’t an impressive fantasy asset — and he is still woefully inefficient — but he keeps matching Randall Cobb in targets. Adams needs to be owned, even if you aren’t ready to start him.
San Diego Chargers
- Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams: 6 targets (24%) after 8 and 5, respectively, in Week 1
- Antonio Gates: 5 targets (20%), after 4 in Week 1
- Dontrelle Inman: 3 targets (12%), after 3 in Week 1
All of us wondered how the San Diego offense would look after the loss of Keenan Allen, and it appears things are roughly as we guessed. Travis Benjamin was still a focal point of the passing game, but Tyrell Williams matched him this week. Benjamin should be owned in almost every league, but Williams’ ownership is lagging behind. Personally, I am interested in Dontrelle Inman, who often mans the slot for San Diego. He has been on the field for nearly every offensive snap, even though he hasn’t started seeing a ton of targets yet. Inman is a sneaky stash in PPR leagues, but I am not ready to play him yet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Mike Evans: 17 targets (34%), after 7 in Week 1
- Vincent Jackson: 9 targets (18%), after 7 in Week 1
- Adam Humphries: 8 targets (16%), after 5 in Week 1
Mike Evans is the man to own in Tampa Bay, and his whopping 34% of the team’s targets showed it in Week 2. Evans is the top dog, but Vincent Jackson continues to receive heavy volume as well. For my money, Adam Humphries is the name to watch. He saw 40 targets last season, and he already has 13 this year in only two weeks. He’s certainly not a priority for your fantasy team, but anyone so involved in the passing game bears watching. If you’re in a deep league, you can likely still add him from waivers.