Noise and Signal Callers: Week 13

Noise and Signal Callers: Week 13

“Noise and Signal Callers” is a statistical smorgasbord for the upcoming NFL week. Some of the stats are (hopefully) predictive, while others are just interesting. I leave it to you to sort out which is which.

Dallas @ Minnesota

 DallasMinnesota
Starting QBDak PrescottSam Bradford
Spread-33
Over/Under4444
Implied Total23.520.5

Dak Prescott

  • The Vikings still haven’t allowed a top-12 QB performance through 11 weeks. (As usual, all fantasy stats and ranks use FanDuel scoring.) They’ve allowed just 14.5 QB fantasy points per game (third-lowest in the league).
  • Prescott has faced four opponents among the 10 stingiest defenses to opposing QBs. Those defenses have allowed just 15.2 points per game to QBs other than Prescott. They’ve allowed 20.8 points per game to Prescott.

Sam Bradford

  • Bradford has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in any of his 10 games this season. Among QBs who have played more than five games, Brock Osweiler is the only other QB to match that feat.
  • The Cowboys are allowing 18.7 fantasy points per game, eighth-most in the league. That’s despite facing only three top-12 QBs (two of whom were Kirk Cousins) through 11 games.

Kansas City @ Atlanta

 Kansas CityAtlanta
Starting QBAlex SmithMatt Ryan
Spread3.5-3.5
Over/Under4949
Implied Total22.7526.25

Alex Smith

  • The Falcons are allowing 22.0 fantasy points per game, most in the league.
  • The Falcons have faced only four QBs outside the top-18 in points per game: Russell WilsonCarson PalmerCarson Wentz, and Paxton Lynch. They’ve held those QBs to 13.0 fantasy points per game.
  • Smith ranks QB27 in points per game.

Matt Ryan

  • Ryan has faced four opponents among the ten stingiest to fantasy QBs. Against those teams, he has averaged “just” 17.7 points per game. Against all other teams, he has averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game.
  • The Chiefs allowed 19.5 QB fantasy points per game, tenth-most in the league.

Miami @ Baltimore

 MiamiBaltimore
Starting QBRyan TannehillJoe Flacco
Spread3-3
Over/Under40.540.5
Implied Total18.7521.75

Ryan Tannehill

  • Tannehill has gained a first down on 35 percent of third and fourth down pass attempts. Among QBs with at least 75 such attempts, he is third-worst in the league.
  • The Ravens have allowed just 12.9 fantasy points per game to QBs outside the top 12.

Joe Flacco

  • Flacco has gained a first down on 34 percent of third and fourth down pass attempts. Among QBs with at least 75 such attempts, he is tied with Ryan Fitzpatrick for the worst success rate in the league.
  • Flacco has completed 28.4 percent of passes targeted at least 15 yards downfield. That’s third-worst in the league among QBs with at least 40 such attempts.

San Francisco @ Chicago

 San FranciscoChicago
Starting QBColin KaepernickMatt Barkley
Spread1.5-1.5
Over/Under43.543.5
Implied Total2122.5

Colin Kaepernick

  • Kaepernick rushed for 113 yards in Week 12. Only 13 QBs have rushed for more than 113 yards on the season.
  • Since the merger, only three QBs have rushed for at least 100 yards and passed for at least 275 yards in a single game: Cam Newton (three times), Russell Wilson (once), and Kaepernick (once — in Week 12).

Matt Barkley

  • Only Case Keenum in Week 1 has failed to register a top-24 fantasy performance against the 49ers. Since that game, the 49ers have allowed 21.4 QB fantasy points per game.

Philadelphia @ Cincinnati

 PhiladelphiaCincinnati
Starting QBCarson WentzAndy Dalton
Spread-11
Over/Under4242
Implied Total21.520.5

Carson Wentz

  • Wentz has converted only 20 percent of his opportunities (rushes + passes) on third and long (seven or more yards to go). That’s second-worst in the league, behind only Sam Bradford.
  • In his first four NFL starts, Wentz averaged 252 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions.
  • In his last seven NFL starts, Wentz has averaged 223 passing yards, 0.6 passing touchdowns, and 1.0 interceptions.

Andy Dalton

  • Dalton has thrown one passing touchdown for every 254 passing yards. Among full-time starters, only Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson have lower touchdown-to-yard ratios.
  • Dalton has zero top-6 weekly finishes through 11 games. He had three in 12 games in 2015.

Houston @ Green Bay

 HoustonGreen Bay
Starting QBBrock OsweilerAaron Rodgers
Spread6.5-6.5
Over/Under45.545.5
Implied Total19.526

Brock Osweiler

  • Osweiler has zero top-12 weeks through 11 games in 2016. He had three top-12 weeks in eight games in 2015.
  • The Packers have allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt (highest in the league), a 5.8 percent touchdown rate (third-highest in the league), and 0.57 fantasy points per pass attempt (third-highest in the league).

Aaron Rodgers

  • Rodgers is on pace for 653 pass attempts. His previous career high was 572 in 2015. He has topped 550 only twice.
  • Rodgers is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt, well below his career mark of 7.9. But his touchdown rate (6.0 percent) and interception rate (1.6 percent) are in line with his career performance.

Denver @ Jacksonville

 DenverJacksonville
Starting QBTrevor SiemianBlake Bortles
Spread-55
Over/Under4141
Implied Total2318

Trevor Siemian

  • Opponents have thrown just three interceptions against Jacksonville, which ties them with Indianapolis for fewest in the league.
  • The Jaguars have faced only four QBs outside the top-18 in fantasy points per game: Joe FlaccoBrian HoyerNick Foles, and Brock Osweiler. They’ve held those QBs to 12.9 fantasy points per game.

Blake Bortles

  • This year’s Blake Bortles is Blake Bortles. 32 percent of Bortles’s pass attempts, 35 percent of his passing yards, and 45 percent of his passing touchdowns have come in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars trailing. Those rates are the second, first, and second highest in the league, respectively.
  • Bortles has averaged 21.52 fantasy points in five games against the 10 softest defenses for opposing QBs. In six games against everyone else, he has averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game.

Los Angeles @ New England

 Los AngelesNew England
Starting QBJared GoffTom Brady
Spread13.5-13.5
Over/Under44.544.5
Implied Total15.529

Jared Goff

  • Since 2012, rookie QBs playing against the Patriots have averaged 227 passing yards, 1.0 passing touchdowns, 1.4 interceptions, and 11.8 fantasy points per game.

Tom Brady

  • In his first four games of the season, Brady averaged 26.3 fantasy points per game. Since then, he has averaged “only” 19.9 points per game.
  • Brady has thrown multiple touchdowns six times through seven games. Only eight QBs have more multiple-touchdown games. Each of them has at least 11 appearances.

Detroit @ New Orleans

 DetroitNew Orleans
Starting QBMatthew StaffordDrew Brees
Spread5.5-5.5
Over/Under53.553.5
Implied Total2429.5

Matthew Stafford

  • The Saints have allowed just one top-6 QB performance through 11 games. They allowed eight in 2015.
  • In five games against the 10 stingiest defenses to fantasy QBs, Stafford has averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game. Against everyone else, he has averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game.
  • The Saints have allowed 18.2 fantasy points per game, just a hair above the league average.

Drew Brees

  • Brees is averaging 17.0 yards per attempt on passes targeted at least 15 yards downfield, tied with Matt Ryan for best in the league. But only 16 percent of Brees’ passes are targeted at least 15 yards downfield, seventh-lowest in the league.
  • Brees has played five games against the 10 most generous defenses for opposing QBs, averaging 28.5 fantasy points per game.
  • The Lions have allowed 19.8 QB fantasy points per game, fifth-most in the league.

Buffalo @ Oakland

 BuffaloOakland
Starting QBTyrod TaylorDerek Carr
Spread3-3
Over/Under4949
Implied Total2326

Tyrod Taylor

  • The Raiders have notched just 17 sacks in 11 games. Only the Browns have fewer sacks per game.
  • Despite facing three of the top five rushing QBs in the league (Cam NewtonMarcus Mariota, and Blake Bortles), the Raiders have allowed just 101 QB rushing yards on the season, ninth-fewest in the league.

Derek Carr

  • Through 11 games, Carr has finished inside the top-6 QBs five times and outside the top-18 QBs five times.
  • In their first five games, the Bills allowed 11.6 QB fantasy points per game. In their last six games, the Bills have allowed 21.5 QB fantasy points per game.

Washington @ Arizona

 WashingtonArizona
Starting QBKirk CousinsCarson Palmer
Spread2.5-2.5
Over/Under4949
Implied Total23.2525.75

Kirk Cousins

  • In his last five games, Cousins has averaged 24.6 fantasy points and has finished outside the top-6 QBs just once — a QB16 finish against Minnesota in Week 10.
  • Cousins has finished outside the top-24 QBs just once through 11 games (in Week 1). He finished outside the top 24 five times in 2015.

Carson Palmer

  • In his last eight games, Palmer has averaged 15.1 fantasy points and has finished inside the top-12 QBs just once — a QB8 finish against Carolina in Week 8.
  • Washington has allowed 21.7 QB fantasy points per game in their last five games, despite facing only two top-12 QBs (Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott) over that span.

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh

 New York GiantsPittsburgh
Starting QBEli ManningBen Roethlisberger
Spread6-6
Over/Under4949
Implied Total21.527.5

Eli Manning

  • Manning’s only 20-point fantasy performances in 2016 have been against the Ravens and Eagles, who have each been among the 10 toughest matchups for fantasy QBs.
  • The Steelers have been the sixth-toughest matchup for fantasy QBs.

Ben Roethlisberger

  • Roethlisberger is averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns per game on the season, which would be a career high. He hasn’t averaged more than 2.0 per game since 2007.

Tampa Bay @ San Diego

 Tampa BaySan Diego
Starting QBJameis WinstonPhilip Rivers
Spread3.5-3.5
Over/Under47.547.5
Implied Total2225.5

Jameis Winston

  • Winston has thrown 11 interceptions, fifth-most in the league.
  • Chargers’ opponents have thrown 14 interceptions, most in the league.

Philip Rivers

  • Against teams that aren’t the Denver Broncos, Rivers is averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game, which would be good for QB12 on the season.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the Denver Broncos.

Carolina @ Seattle

 CarolinaSeattle
Starting QBCam NewtonRussell Wilson
Spread6.5-6.5
Over/Under44.544.5
Implied Total1925.5

Cam Newton

  • In five games before the Panthers’ bye, Newton averaged fantasy 22.5 points per game (despite missing part of Week 4 due to injury).
  • In five games since the Panthers’ bye, Newton has averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game.

Russell Wilson

  • Wilson scored just 12.0 fantasy points despite rushing for 80 yards in Week 12. The last QB to score less than 12.0 fantasy points despite rushing for more than 75 yards was … Russell Wilson in Week 4 of 2013.
  • Through 11 games, Wilson has four finishes inside the top-6 QBs and seven finishes outside the top 18.

Indianapolis @ New York Jets

 IndianapolisNew York Jets
Starting QBAndrew LuckRyan Fitzpatrick
Spread-11
Over/Under49.549.5
Implied Total25.2524.25

Andrew Luck

  • Luck has been sacked 35 times through 10 games. Since 2010, only Blake Bortles (2014), Ryan Tannehill (2013), and Sam Bradford (2011) have played at least 10 games and been sacked at least 3.5 times per game.
  • The Jets have notched only 1.7 sacks per game, third-fewest behind the Browns and Raiders.

Ryan Fitzpatrick

  • Fitzpatrick has just three touchdowns on 21 pass attempts from within 10 yards of the end zone. That 14.2 percent touchdown rate is worst in the league. The next worst is Kirk Cousins, who has scored on 21.2 percent of his inside-the-10 passes.
  • The Colts have allowed 21.0 QB fantasy points per game, despite facing only four top-12 QBs through 11 games.

Brian Malone

Brian has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade, and he made the jump to 2QB in 2013. If you follow him @BrianMaloneFF, he will at some point lecture you about longevity and positional baselines until you tell him to shut up.

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