Noise and Signal Callers: Week 13
“Noise and Signal Callers” is a statistical smorgasbord for the upcoming NFL week. Some of the stats are (hopefully) predictive, while others are just interesting. I leave it to you to sort out which is which.
Dallas @ Minnesota
|Starting QB||Dak Prescott||Sam Bradford|
- The Vikings still haven’t allowed a top-12 QB performance through 11 weeks. (As usual, all fantasy stats and ranks use FanDuel scoring.) They’ve allowed just 14.5 QB fantasy points per game (third-lowest in the league).
- Prescott has faced four opponents among the 10 stingiest defenses to opposing QBs. Those defenses have allowed just 15.2 points per game to QBs other than Prescott. They’ve allowed 20.8 points per game to Prescott.
- Bradford has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in any of his 10 games this season. Among QBs who have played more than five games, Brock Osweiler is the only other QB to match that feat.
- The Cowboys are allowing 18.7 fantasy points per game, eighth-most in the league. That’s despite facing only three top-12 QBs (two of whom were Kirk Cousins) through 11 games.
Kansas City @ Atlanta
|Starting QB||Alex Smith||Matt Ryan|
- The Falcons are allowing 22.0 fantasy points per game, most in the league.
- The Falcons have faced only four QBs outside the top-18 in points per game: Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, Carson Wentz, and Paxton Lynch. They’ve held those QBs to 13.0 fantasy points per game.
- Smith ranks QB27 in points per game.
- Ryan has faced four opponents among the ten stingiest to fantasy QBs. Against those teams, he has averaged “just” 17.7 points per game. Against all other teams, he has averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game.
- The Chiefs allowed 19.5 QB fantasy points per game, tenth-most in the league.
Miami @ Baltimore
|Starting QB||Ryan Tannehill||Joe Flacco|
- Tannehill has gained a first down on 35 percent of third and fourth down pass attempts. Among QBs with at least 75 such attempts, he is third-worst in the league.
- The Ravens have allowed just 12.9 fantasy points per game to QBs outside the top 12.
- Flacco has gained a first down on 34 percent of third and fourth down pass attempts. Among QBs with at least 75 such attempts, he is tied with Ryan Fitzpatrick for the worst success rate in the league.
- Flacco has completed 28.4 percent of passes targeted at least 15 yards downfield. That’s third-worst in the league among QBs with at least 40 such attempts.
San Francisco @ Chicago
|Starting QB||Colin Kaepernick||Matt Barkley|
- Kaepernick rushed for 113 yards in Week 12. Only 13 QBs have rushed for more than 113 yards on the season.
- Since the merger, only three QBs have rushed for at least 100 yards and passed for at least 275 yards in a single game: Cam Newton (three times), Russell Wilson (once), and Kaepernick (once — in Week 12).
- Only Case Keenum in Week 1 has failed to register a top-24 fantasy performance against the 49ers. Since that game, the 49ers have allowed 21.4 QB fantasy points per game.
Philadelphia @ Cincinnati
|Starting QB||Carson Wentz||Andy Dalton|
- Wentz has converted only 20 percent of his opportunities (rushes + passes) on third and long (seven or more yards to go). That’s second-worst in the league, behind only Sam Bradford.
- In his first four NFL starts, Wentz averaged 252 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions.
- In his last seven NFL starts, Wentz has averaged 223 passing yards, 0.6 passing touchdowns, and 1.0 interceptions.
- Dalton has thrown one passing touchdown for every 254 passing yards. Among full-time starters, only Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson have lower touchdown-to-yard ratios.
- Dalton has zero top-6 weekly finishes through 11 games. He had three in 12 games in 2015.
Houston @ Green Bay
|Starting QB||Brock Osweiler||Aaron Rodgers|
- Osweiler has zero top-12 weeks through 11 games in 2016. He had three top-12 weeks in eight games in 2015.
- The Packers have allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt (highest in the league), a 5.8 percent touchdown rate (third-highest in the league), and 0.57 fantasy points per pass attempt (third-highest in the league).
- Rodgers is on pace for 653 pass attempts. His previous career high was 572 in 2015. He has topped 550 only twice.
- Rodgers is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt, well below his career mark of 7.9. But his touchdown rate (6.0 percent) and interception rate (1.6 percent) are in line with his career performance.
Denver @ Jacksonville
|Starting QB||Trevor Siemian||Blake Bortles|
- Opponents have thrown just three interceptions against Jacksonville, which ties them with Indianapolis for fewest in the league.
- The Jaguars have faced only four QBs outside the top-18 in fantasy points per game: Joe Flacco, Brian Hoyer, Nick Foles, and Brock Osweiler. They’ve held those QBs to 12.9 fantasy points per game.
- This year’s Blake Bortles is Blake Bortles. 32 percent of Bortles’s pass attempts, 35 percent of his passing yards, and 45 percent of his passing touchdowns have come in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars trailing. Those rates are the second, first, and second highest in the league, respectively.
- Bortles has averaged 21.52 fantasy points in five games against the 10 softest defenses for opposing QBs. In six games against everyone else, he has averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game.
Los Angeles @ New England
|Los Angeles||New England|
|Starting QB||Jared Goff||Tom Brady|
- Since 2012, rookie QBs playing against the Patriots have averaged 227 passing yards, 1.0 passing touchdowns, 1.4 interceptions, and 11.8 fantasy points per game.
- In his first four games of the season, Brady averaged 26.3 fantasy points per game. Since then, he has averaged “only” 19.9 points per game.
- Brady has thrown multiple touchdowns six times through seven games. Only eight QBs have more multiple-touchdown games. Each of them has at least 11 appearances.
Detroit @ New Orleans
|Starting QB||Matthew Stafford||Drew Brees|
- The Saints have allowed just one top-6 QB performance through 11 games. They allowed eight in 2015.
- In five games against the 10 stingiest defenses to fantasy QBs, Stafford has averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game. Against everyone else, he has averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game.
- The Saints have allowed 18.2 fantasy points per game, just a hair above the league average.
- Brees is averaging 17.0 yards per attempt on passes targeted at least 15 yards downfield, tied with Matt Ryan for best in the league. But only 16 percent of Brees’ passes are targeted at least 15 yards downfield, seventh-lowest in the league.
- Brees has played five games against the 10 most generous defenses for opposing QBs, averaging 28.5 fantasy points per game.
- The Lions have allowed 19.8 QB fantasy points per game, fifth-most in the league.
Buffalo @ Oakland
|Starting QB||Tyrod Taylor||Derek Carr|
- The Raiders have notched just 17 sacks in 11 games. Only the Browns have fewer sacks per game.
- Despite facing three of the top five rushing QBs in the league (Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, and Blake Bortles), the Raiders have allowed just 101 QB rushing yards on the season, ninth-fewest in the league.
- Through 11 games, Carr has finished inside the top-6 QBs five times and outside the top-18 QBs five times.
- In their first five games, the Bills allowed 11.6 QB fantasy points per game. In their last six games, the Bills have allowed 21.5 QB fantasy points per game.
Washington @ Arizona
|Starting QB||Kirk Cousins||Carson Palmer|
- In his last five games, Cousins has averaged 24.6 fantasy points and has finished outside the top-6 QBs just once — a QB16 finish against Minnesota in Week 10.
- Cousins has finished outside the top-24 QBs just once through 11 games (in Week 1). He finished outside the top 24 five times in 2015.
- In his last eight games, Palmer has averaged 15.1 fantasy points and has finished inside the top-12 QBs just once — a QB8 finish against Carolina in Week 8.
- Washington has allowed 21.7 QB fantasy points per game in their last five games, despite facing only two top-12 QBs (Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott) over that span.
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh
|New York Giants||Pittsburgh|
|Starting QB||Eli Manning||Ben Roethlisberger|
- Manning’s only 20-point fantasy performances in 2016 have been against the Ravens and Eagles, who have each been among the 10 toughest matchups for fantasy QBs.
- The Steelers have been the sixth-toughest matchup for fantasy QBs.
- Roethlisberger is averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns per game on the season, which would be a career high. He hasn’t averaged more than 2.0 per game since 2007.
Tampa Bay @ San Diego
|Tampa Bay||San Diego|
|Starting QB||Jameis Winston||Philip Rivers|
- Winston has thrown 11 interceptions, fifth-most in the league.
- Chargers’ opponents have thrown 14 interceptions, most in the league.
- Against teams that aren’t the Denver Broncos, Rivers is averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game, which would be good for QB12 on the season.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the Denver Broncos.
Carolina @ Seattle
|Starting QB||Cam Newton||Russell Wilson|
- In five games before the Panthers’ bye, Newton averaged fantasy 22.5 points per game (despite missing part of Week 4 due to injury).
- In five games since the Panthers’ bye, Newton has averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game.
- Wilson scored just 12.0 fantasy points despite rushing for 80 yards in Week 12. The last QB to score less than 12.0 fantasy points despite rushing for more than 75 yards was … Russell Wilson in Week 4 of 2013.
- Through 11 games, Wilson has four finishes inside the top-6 QBs and seven finishes outside the top 18.
Indianapolis @ New York Jets
|Indianapolis||New York Jets|
|Starting QB||Andrew Luck||Ryan Fitzpatrick|
- Luck has been sacked 35 times through 10 games. Since 2010, only Blake Bortles (2014), Ryan Tannehill (2013), and Sam Bradford (2011) have played at least 10 games and been sacked at least 3.5 times per game.
- The Jets have notched only 1.7 sacks per game, third-fewest behind the Browns and Raiders.
- Fitzpatrick has just three touchdowns on 21 pass attempts from within 10 yards of the end zone. That 14.2 percent touchdown rate is worst in the league. The next worst is Kirk Cousins, who has scored on 21.2 percent of his inside-the-10 passes.
- The Colts have allowed 21.0 QB fantasy points per game, despite facing only four top-12 QBs through 11 games.