Noise and Signal Callers: Week 5

Noise and Signal Callers: Week 5

“Noise and Signal Callers” is a statistical smorgasbord for the upcoming NFL week. Some of the stats are (hopefully) predictive, while others are just interesting. … I leave it to you to sort out which is which.

Arizona @ San Francisco

 ArizonaSan Francisco
Starting QBDrew StantonBlaine Gabbert
Spread-44
Over/Under4343
Implied Total23.519.5

Drew Stanton

  • In Stanton’s eight starts with the Cardinals (all in 2014), he averaged 203 passing yards, 0.75 passing touchdowns, and 11.5 FanDuel points per game. The Cardinals never scored more than 25 points.
  • Stanton’s best career fantasy performance was 19.4 FanDuel points against San Francisco in Week 3 of 2014.

Blaine Gabbert

  • Gabbert is the only QB who has played in four games and has zero 250-yard passing games.
  • The Cardinals have allowed 14.7 FanDuel points per game, seventh least in the league. But the QBs they’ve faced have averaged only 16.4 FanDuel points per game against non-Cardinals opponents.

New England @ Cleveland

 New EnglandCleveland
Starting QBTom BradyCody Kessler
Spread-1010
Over/Under46.546.5
Implied Total28.2518.25

(Angry) Tom Brady

  • Based on game script, we would have expected the Patriots to throw on 53.9 percent of plays in 2015. Instead, they threw on 63.2 percent. That 9.3-point gap was the largest in the league, and it wasn’t even close.
  • Through four games without Brady, the Patriots have averaged 16.1 QB FanDuel points per game. If treated as a single player, they would rank as QB21 in points per game.
  • In Brady’s absence, the Patriots averaged the fewest pass attempts and the second most rush attempts in the league.

Cody Kessler

  • The Patriots have played 21 games against rookie QBs under Bill Belichick. Only one  — Andrew Luck — has thrown for over 300 yards. The Colts lost 24-59, and Luck threw three interceptions.

Philadelphia @ Detroit

 PhiladelphiaDetroit
Starting QBCarson WentzMatthew Stafford
Spread-33
Over/Under4646
Implied Total24.521.5

Carson Wentz

  • The Lions have allowed at least 200 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns in seven straight games. The next longest streak is Atlanta, with four games.
  • Wentz has thrown five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Since 2000, the most touchdowns a QB has thrown before his first interception is seven. Tom Brady and Case Keenum share the distinction.
  • The Eagles have run the ball on 73 percent of plays within 10 yards of the end zone. Only the 49ers and Bills have run more often. On five dropbacks from inside the 10, Wentz has completed just two passes for one touchdown.

Matthew Stafford

  • The Eagles have kept their opposing QB out of the top-24 in three of three weeks. In 2015, 14 teams didn’t keep their opposing QB out of the top 24 for three weeks all season.
  • The best QB fantasy performance against the Eagles this season has been Ben Roethlisberger‘s 10.6 FanDuel points.
  • The Eagles haven’t allowed a QB touchdown (rushing or passing). Every other team has allowed at least two.

Chicago @ Indianapolis

 ChicagoIndianapolis
Starting QBBrian HoyerAndrew Luck
Spread4.5-4.5
Over/Under47.547.5
Implied Total21.526

Brian Hoyer

  • Hoyer has thrown for 2 touchdowns and at least 300 yards in two straight games. The last Bears QB to match that feat was Josh McCown in 2013.
  • The Colts have allowed 250 passing yards or 2 passing touchdowns in every game this season.
  • In Hoyer’s 2015 matchup against the Colts, he passed for 312 yards and 2 touchdowns, scoring 20.9 FanDuel points.

Andrew Luck

  • Luck has already scored fewer than 15 FanDuel points twice in 2016. He fell short of 15 points just three times in 2014 and 2015 combined (23 games).
  • Luck has been sacked 15 times. No other team has allowed more than 13 sacks. The Bears have just six sacks in four games. Only five teams have fewer.
  • Including sacks as pass attempts, teams playing the Bears have passed on just 52 percent of plays, least in the league. The Colts have passed on 67 percent of offensive plays, fourth most in the league.

Tennessee @ Miami

 TennesseeMiami
Starting QBMarcus MariotaRyan Tannehill
Spread3.5-3.5
Over/Under43.543.5
Implied Total2023.5

Marcus Mariota

  • Mariota is the only QB to start four games with zero top-12 weeks and only one top-18 week.
  • Mariota has been held to fewer than 18 FanDuel points in each of his four 2016 games. He was held to fewer than 18 FanDuel points only four times in eleven 2015 contests.

Ryan Tannehill

  • Tannehill’s 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt is twentieth best in the league. It’s also tied for his career high.

Washington @ Baltimore

 WashingtonBaltimore
Starting QBKirk CousinsJoe Flacco
Spread3.5-3.5
Over/Under43.543.5
Implied Total2023.5

Kirk Cousins

  • The Ravens have allowed gains of 20 or more yards on just 4.4 percent of opponents’ dropbacks. Only Denver has been stingier.
  • Cousins has thrown for multiple touchdowns or 300 yards in eight straight games.

Joe Flacco

  • Since 2015 (14 total games), Flacco has scored more than 20 FanDuel points in a Ravens win just one time.

Houston @ Minnesota

 HoustonMinnesota
Starting QBBrock OsweilerSam Bradford
Spread6-6
Over/Under4040
Implied Total1723

Brock Osweiler

  • The Vikings have the longest active interception streak with at least one interception in seven straight games.
  • Osweiler has the second-longest active QB interception streak, throwing at least one interception in five straight games.
  • The Texans have passed on 75 percent of their plays within 10 yards of the end zone, tied for most in the league. But they’ve only had eight such plays, tied for least in the league.

Sam Bradford

  • Bradford has yet to post a top-12 week in 2016. He had just four in 2015.
  • Bradford has topped 20 FanDuel points just once in his last 17 starts.

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh

 New York JetsPittsburgh
Starting QBRyan FitzpatrickBen Roethlisberger
Spread7-7
Over/Under48.548.5
Implied Total20.7527.75

Ryan Fitzpatrick

  • Among 33 qualifying QBs, Fitzpatrick ranks 33rd with 4.2 adjusted yards per attempt.
  • Fitzpatrick has thrown at least three interceptions in back to back games. Since 2000, only two QBs — Aaron Brooks and Peyton Manning — have thrown at least three interceptions in three straight games.

Ben Roethlisberger

  • Roethlisberger is one of only seven QBs who has played in four games and hasn’t topped 300 passing yards (though he hit 300 on the nose in Week 4). He nevertheless ranks fourth in FanDuel points per game.
  • The Steelers have passed the ball on 75 percent of plays within 10 yards of the end zone, tied for most in the league. Roethlisberger has completed six of nine passes for five touchdowns from inside the 10.

Atlanta @ Denver

 AtlantaDenver
Starting QBMatt RyanPaxton Lynch
Spread5.5-5.5
Over/Under47.547.5
Implied Total2126.5

Matt Ryan

  • Ryan is the only QB in the league with three top-6 weeks. He had two in all of 2015.
  • Ryan is the only QB in the league with multiple passing touchdowns in all four 2016 games.
  • Ryan leads the league in adjusted yards per attempt with 11.5. Denver leads the league in adjusted yards per attempt allowed with 4.3.

Paxton Lynch

  • If you treat “Broncos QB” as a single player, they’ve averaged 17.4 FanDuel points per game, which would rank 16th among actual QBs, just behind Philip Rivers.
  • The Falcons have allowed three top-6 QB performances, and the only reason they haven’t allowed four is Cam Newton‘s Week 4 injury. Newton and Derek Anderson combined for 30.5 FanDuel points, which would have been good for QB3 on the week.

Cincinnati @ Dallas

 CincinnatiDallas
Starting QBAndy DaltonDak Prescott
Spread00
Over/Under4545
Implied Total22.522.5

Andy Dalton

  • Among quarterbacks with at least five pass attempts within 10 yards of the end zone, Dalton has the worst touchdown rate, with just one passing touchdown on eight dropbacks.
  • The Bengals have gained at least 20 passing yards on 12.6 percent of their dropbacks, second most in the league. The Cowboys have allowed at least 20 passing yards on 10.5 percent of opponents’ dropbacks, fifth most in the league.
  • Dalton has zero top-12 weeks in 2016. He had seven in 2015 (out of twelve total games).

Dak Prescott

  • Prescott has the most pass attempts of any QB without throwing an interception.
  • Prescott has averaged 7.4 adjusted yards per attempt throwing to Dez Bryant. He’s averaged 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt throwing to all other receivers.

Buffalo @ Los Angeles

 BuffaloLos Angeles
Starting QBTyrod TaylorCase Keenum
Spread2.5-2.5
Over/Under39.539.5
Implied Total18.521

Tyrod Taylor

  • The Bills have thrown just two passes (good for two completions and one touchdown) on plays starting within 10 yards of the end zone. Taylor also has two goal line rush attempts — one from the 1-yard line and one from the 3-yard line. Both failed.
  • The Bills also have the fewest 20-yard pass plays in the league with seven. Taylor does have a 49-yard run and a 20-yard touchdown run.

Case Keenum

  • Buffalo has allowed only 12.3 FanDuel points per game. That’s fourth lowest in the league, but still higher than Keenum’s 11.8 FanDuel points per game.
  • Keenum’s 18 FanDuel points against Arizona mark the most QB fantasy production Arizona has allowed in 2016.

San Diego @ Oakland

 San DiegoOakland
Starting QBPhilip RiversDerek Carr
Spread3.5-3.5
Over/Under5050
Implied Total23.2526.75

Philip Rivers

  • In three games without Keenan Allen, Rivers is averaging 290 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 0.3 interceptions, and 18.3 FanDuel points per game.
  • In two games against the Raiders in 2015, Rivers averaged 307 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, and 21.3 FanDuel points per game.

Derek Carr

  • In two games against the Chargers in 2015, Carr averaged 247 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions, and 20.1 FanDuel points per game.
  • The Raiders have surrendered two sacks, the fewest in the league.

New York Giants @ Green Bay

 New York GiantsGreen Bay
Starting QBEli ManningAaron Rodgers
Spread7.5-7.5
Over/Under4848
Implied Total20.2527.75

Eli Manning

  • The Giants have allowed 20 or more passing yards on 14.7 percent of opponents’ dropbacks, most in the league.

Aaron Rodgers

  • Rodgers ranks second in the league with 22.8 FanDuel points per game. From 2012 to 2014, he finished seasons ranked second, fourth, and first in points per game.
  • The Giants are the only defense that hasn’t intercepted a pass in 2016. Rodgers has thrown seven touchdowns and just one interception in three games.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

 Tampa BayCarolina
Starting QBJameis WinstonDerek Anderson
Spread7-7
Over/Under(TBD)(TBD)
Implied Total(TBD)(TBD)

Jameis Winston

  • Winston has the longest active QB interception streak, throwing at least one in seven straight games.
  • The Panthers have gained 20 or more passing yards on just 5.9 percent of drop backs, better than only Buffalo and Kansas City.

Derek Anderson

  • In two career starts with the Panthers, Anderson has averaged 17.4 FanDuel points per game. Both starts came against Tampa Bay.
  • Tampa Bay is one of just four teams — Cleveland, Detroit, and Atlanta are the others — that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns every game in 2016.

Brian Malone

Brian has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade, and he made the jump to 2QB in 2013. If you follow him @BrianMaloneFF, he will at some point lecture you about longevity and positional baselines until you tell him to shut up.

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