Noise and Signal Callers: Week 7

Noise and Signal Callers: Week 7

“Noise and Signal Callers” is a statistical smorgasbord for the upcoming NFL week. Some of the stats are (hopefully) predictive, while others are just interesting. … I leave it to you to sort out which is which.

Chicago @ Green Bay

 ChicagoGreen Bay
Starting QBBrian HoyerAaron Rodgers
Spread7.5-7.5
Over/Under4646
Implied Total19.2526.75

Brian Hoyer

  • 74 percent of Hoyer‘s passing yards have come on gains of less than 20 yards. That’s the highest percentage in the league.
  • Despite his Week 6 dud, Hoyer has averaged 18.5 FanDuel points in the four games as a starter. That would make him QB10 on the season.
  • Hoyer and Matt Ryan are the only two QBs to throw for 300 yards four times in 2016. Ryan has started six games; Hoyer has started four.

Aaron Rodgers

  • Rodgers is one of only six QBs who has started at least five games and hasn’t topped 300 yards in any of them.
  • Rodgers is averaging 6.6 adjusted yards per pass attempt. His career low, set in 2015, is 7.1.

New York Giants @ Los Angeles

 New York GiantsLos Angeles
Starting QBEli ManningCase Keenum
Spread-2.52.5
Over/Under43.543.5
Implied Total2320.5

Eli Manning

  • Manning has yet to post a top-6 fantasy week. He had five in 2015.
  • Manning has averaged 9.8 adjusted yards per attempt throwing to Odell Beckham and 6.3 adjusted yards per attempt throwing to all other receivers.

Case Keenum

  • Keenum scored 30.5 FanDuel points in Week 6. In his next two best performances (Weeks 3 and 4), he scored a total of 32.7 FanDuel points.
  • Only 7 QBs have scored 30 or more FanDuel points in a game in 2016. The other six rank among the top-10 in season-long points per game. Keenum is QB29.
  • The Giants have averaged just one sack per game, the lowest rate in the league.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

 ClevelandCincinnati
Starting QBCody KesslerAndy Dalton
Spread10-10
Over/Under45.545.5
Implied Total17.7527.75

Cody Kessler

  • With Kessler at QB, the Browns have surrendered sacks on 7.6 percent of drop backs, which would rank fifth-highest in the league. With all other QBs, they have surrendered sacks on 8.9 percent of drop backs, which would rank highest in the league.

Andy Dalton

  • Dalton has completed 61.5 percent of his pass attempts targeted at least 15 yards downfield. That’s best in the league among QBs with at least 15 such attempts.
  • Five of Cleveland’s six QB opponents have finished in the top-12. The only exception was Joe Flacco, who finished as QB18.

Washington @ Detroit

 WashingtonDetroit
Starting QBKirk CousinsMatthew Stafford
Spread1-1
Over/Under4949
Implied Total2425

Kirk Cousins

  • The Lions are one of only two teams (the Browns are the other) who have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in every game in 2016.
  • The 30.5 FanDuel points the Lions allowed to Case Keenum in Week 6 marked the highest fantasy total in Keenum’s career.

Matthew Stafford

  • Stafford is averaging 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt. His career high was 7.7 in 2011. The only other time he’s topped 7.0 was in 2015.
  • Just 14 percent of Stafford’s passes have been targeted at least 15 yards downfield, the fifth-lowest rate in the league.

Oakland @ Jacksonville

 OaklandJacksonville
Starting QBDerek CarrBlake Bortles
Spread1-1
Over/Under48.548.5
Implied Total23.7524.75

Derek Carr

  • 18 QBs have had at least one fantasy performance better than Carr’s season-high 25.0 FanDuel points, but only eight QBs have averaged more points per game than his 19.7.
  • Carr has four top-12 finishes through six games. He had only seven in all of 2015.

Blake Bortles

  • Bortles is one of six QBs to play in at least five games and finish as a top-24 QB in each of them.
  • In 2015, Bortles completed 44.1 percent of his passes targeted at least 15 yards downfield and averaged 12.7 yards per attempt on those passes. In 2016, he has completed just 32.4 percent of those attempts and is averaging just 8.0 yards per attempt.

New Orleans @ Kansas City

 New OrleansKansas City
Starting QBDrew BreesAlex Smith
Spread7-7
Over/Under5050
Implied Total21.528.5

Drew Brees

  • 43 percent of Brees’s passing yards have come on throws targeted at least 15 yards downfield. That’s more than any QB except Ben Roethlisberger.
  • The Chiefs have allowed only one top-18 QB performance, but it was a 33.9 point effort from Roethlisberger.

Alex Smith

  • Only 12 percent of Smith’s pass attempts have been targeted at least 15 yards downfield. That’s the lowest rate in the league.
  • Smith has completed just 32 percent of passes targeted at least 15 yards downfield. That’s the sixth-lowest percentage among QBs with at least 20 such attempts.
  • Of the Saints’ five opponents, only Matt Ryan has thrown for less than 300 yards. Ryan passed for two touchdowns and finished as the QB9 on the week.

Buffalo @ Miami

 BuffaloMiami
Starting QBTyrod TaylorRyan Tannehill
Spread-33
Over/Under4444
Implied Total23.520.5

Tyrod Taylor

  • Taylor has averaged more yards per rush attempt than yards per pass attempt three times in six games. No other QB has done it more than once.
  • Taylor has averaged 39.3 rushing yards per game. Only seven other QBs have at least one game with at 39 or more rushing yards (and two of them play for the 49ers).

Ryan Tannehill

  • Among QBs with at least 100 pass attempts, Tannehill is one of only three who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. The other two (Ryan Fitzpatrick and Blaine Gabbert) have both been benched.
  • Tannehill is the lowest scoring fantasy QB with at least one top-6 finish.

Baltimore @ New York Jets

 BaltimoreNew York Jets
Starting QBJoe FlaccoGeno Smith
Spread00
Over/Under41.541.5
Implied Total20.7520.75

Joe Flacco

  • The Jets have allowed opposing QBs to throw for 9.6 adjusted yards per attempt, the highest in the league. Among individual QBs, only Matt Ryan‘s adjusted yards per attempt average is higher.

Geno Smith

  • Smith has averaged 9.6 adjusted yards per attempt throwing to Eric Decker and 5.1 adjusted yards per attempt throwing to everyone else.
  • The Ravens have allowed just 2.2 20-yard pass plays per game, which is the fewest in the league.

Minnesota @ Philadelphia

 MinnesotaPhiladelphia
Starting QBSam BradfordCarson Wentz
Spread-2.52.5
Over/Under4040
Implied Total21.2518.75

Sam Bradford

  • Bradford has averaged 8.9 adjusted yards per pass attempt, second only to Matt Ryan for best in the league among QBs with at least 100 attempts.

Carson Wentz

  • The Vikings are the only defense that has not allowed a top-12 QB performance in 2016.
  • The Vikings have averaged 3.8 sacks per game, most in the league.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee

 IndianapolisTennessee
Starting QBAndrew LuckMarcus Mariota
Spread2.5-2.5
Over/Under48.548.5
Implied Total2325.5

Andrew Luck

  • Luck has been sacked 3.8 times per game. No other team has allowed more than 3.3 sacks per game.
  • The Titans defense has averaged 3.0 sacks per game, seventh-most in the league.

Marcus Mariota

  • Mariota is QB10 in season-long FanDuel points per game. He is the only one in the top-20 with two weekly finishes outside the top-24.
  • Mariota has faced three of the best defenses for allowing QB production: Detroit, Oakland, and Cleveland. But he’s averaged only 17.7 FanDuel points per game against those teams and 19.1 points per game against his other three opponents.

San Diego @ Atlanta

 San DiegoAtlanta
Starting QBPhilip RiversMatt Ryan
Spread6.5-6.5
Over/Under5353
Implied Total23.2529.75

Philip Rivers

  • The Falcons have allowed 22.5 FanDuel points per game.
  • Rivers led the league with 661 pass attempts in 2015. He’s on pace for 536 in 2016.
  • Rivers was the QB12 with 18.6 FanDuel points per game in 2015. He’s the QB10 with 18.2 FanDuel points per game in 2016.

Matt Ryan

  • The average of Ryan’s three worst fantasy performances is 19.2 FanDuel points per game. That would be good enough for QB10 on the season.
  • Ryan has five top-10 QB weeks in 2016. He hasn’t had more than five top-10 weeks since 2012.

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

 Tampa BaySan Francisco
Starting QBJameis WinstonColin Kaepernick
Spread-22
Over/Under47.547.5
Implied Total24.7522.75

Jameis Winston

  • Winston has completed just 27.9 percent of his attempts targeted at least 15 yards downfield. That’s worst among QBs with at least 15 such attempts. Next worst is Blaine Gabbert at 29.2 percent.
  • Winston has five touchdowns on his eight opportunities (rush attempts + pass attempts + sacks) within 10 yards of the end zone. Among QBs with at least five such opportunities, only Cam Newton has scored at a higher rate.

Colin Kaepernick

  • 25 percent of Kaepernick’s passes have traveled at least 15 yards downfield. Only 16 percent of Blaine Gabbert‘s passes traveled that far.
  • Kaepernick has completed only 52 percent of his passes that traveled less than 15 yards. Among QBs with at least 20 such attempts, only Drew Stanton has a lower completion percentage.

New England @ Pittsburgh

 New EnglandPittsburgh
Starting QBTom BradyLandry Jones
Spread-77
Over/Under45.545.5
Implied Total26.2519.25

Tom Brady

  • 16 percent of Brady’s pass attempts have gained at least 20 yards. That’s the highest percentage in the league.
  • Just 13 percent of Brady’s pass attempts have been targeted at least 15 yards downfield. That’s the third-lowest percentage, behind Alex Smith and Trevor Siemian.

Landry Jones

  • Since 2011, QBs playing against the Patriots with less than 16 games of prior experience have averaged 234 passing yards, 1.3 passing touchdowns, 1.3 interceptions, and 15.4 FanDuel points per game.

Seattle @ Arizona

 SeattleArizona
Starting QBRussell WilsonCarson Palmer
Spread2-2
Over/Under43.543.5
Implied Total20.7522.75

Russell Wilson

  • Wilson posted 15 top-18 QB performance in 16 2015 games. He has just one top-18 performance through five games in 2016.
  • Wilson’s average rushing yards per game by season, from 2012 to 2016: 31, 34, 53, 35, 7.

Carson Palmer

  • In his four complete games, Palmer has averaged just 15.8 FanDuel points per game. He averaged 20.0 points per game in 2015.
  • The Seahawks have allowed only two top-24 QB fantasy weeks and only one top-18 week.

Houston @ Denver

 HoustonDenver
Starting QBBrock OsweilerTrevor Siemian
Spread7.5-7.5
Over/Under40.540.5
Implied Total16.524

Brock Osweiler

  • Among QBs with at least 100 pass attempts, only two have fewer adjusted yards per attempt than Osweiler’s 5.3. Those two are Ryan Fitzpatrick and Blaine Gabbert.
  • The Broncos are allowing opposing QBs to average just 5.5 adjusted yards per pass attempt, third-lowest in the league.
  • Three QBs have thrown for less than 200 yards on more than 40 attempts in a game in 2016. Osweiler is the only QB who has done it twice.

Trevor Siemian

  • Siemian has scored just three touchdowns on 14 opportunities (rush attempts + pass attempts + sacks) within 10 yards of the goal line. Only Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kirk Cousins have scored at a lower rate.
  • Siemian has topped 15 FanDuel points just once in four complete games.

Brian Malone

Brian has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade, and he made the jump to 2QB in 2013. If you follow him @BrianMaloneFF, he will at some point lecture you about longevity and positional baselines until you tell him to shut up.

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