Patrick Mahomes is the King of Consistency
Editor’s Note: This guest post was written by Phillip Caldwell. For more information about his consistency scores and the math behind them, refer to his first article on the subject from after Week 5, and for more fantasy nuggets like this, follow him on Twitter @DumpsterDiveFF.
With the 2018 fantasy season in the rearview mirror, it is time to reflect back so we can shed biases and look at what players truly showed us. Andrew Luck may have brought me a fantasy championship, but should I target him in 2019 drafts, or am I being romantic about this year’s win?
Of course, pieces change, coaches move, players get traded, and incoming rookies make an impact; all of that is the fun part of debating and trying to project for next season. But to have the most accurate expectation for the next season, we need to look at this past season and have a clear, unbiased understanding of how players performed. My full-season consistency scores are perfect for just that.
In case you need a refresher on how my quarterback consistency scores are calculated visit my first article here. The important thing to remember is the higher the consistency score, the more often that player posts a high level of fantasy points.
Fantasy Consistency Scores – QBs
Editor’s Note: If reading this full-season table strains your eyes, you can find a larger format here.
The New Chief of Quarterbacks
No one is surprised to see Patrick Mahomes at the top of this list. Never turning in a performance with fewer than 15 fantasy points and averaging 26.65 per game on the season, Mahomes’ first full season was remarkable. With most if not all of his receiving weapons set to return next season, and ideally not losing his starting running back in the middle of next season, Mahomes has set himself up as a first round draft pick in all 2QB and Superflex fantasy leagues next season.
Reading Between the Game Log Lines
Aaron Rodgers’ fantasy season wasn’t as bad as it felt. In real life NFL terms, his 25 touchdowns were a career low for seasons in which he played 16 games. But with only one bust game (i.e., under 13 fantasy points) and nine games with above average fantasy scores, Rodgers came through for your fantasy team, especially in Week 16 championships with 42.88 points. The Packers’ search for a head coach and how that could affect the offense should be something to monitor, but I have few concerns for Rodgers in 2019.
Baker Mayfield came through for teams late in the season, and for my consistency predictions. After Week 6, I argued Mayfield would climb from the 18th-ranked consistency score, and sure enough, he made his way up to 10th to end the year. Mayfield had a very positive schedule over the second half of this year, but his ascent had more to do with the firing of Hue Jackson. The Browns are another team with a lot of coaching changes worth monitoring, but the core skill positions surrounding Mayfield are in place. As long as the new staff in Cleveland doesn’t completely blow things up ala Jon Gruden, Mayfield should build on his promising rookie campaign.
Inconsistency in Rams’ Clothing
One signal-caller who showed he can be a week winner also showed he can tank your team any given week. Jared Goff finished as the 16th-ranked quarterback in my consistency scores, despite one of the season’s hottest starts. But with four bust weeks, including a negative outing in the fantasy playoffs, Goff might have tanked more teams than he helped. With incredible skill position players around him and head coach Sean McVay in his ear, it is hard to imagine Goff not being a top tier fantasy asset. But this season showed some cracks in the Rams’ armor, and Goff might not be as steady as you hope.
The Black Hole is a Fantasy Abyss
Maybe a change of scenery will help Derek Carr next season because 2018 was worth forgetting. With a consistency score of only 5.51, an average of 14.29 fantasy points per game, and seven weeks where he busted, Carr vastly underwhelmed fantasy owners in his fifth season. Despite not knowing where the Raiders will play next season, we know Jon Gruden will still be Carr’s head coach (if you aren’t sure, you can always check here). Gruden’s job security doesn’t bode well for Carr moving forward. But if Oakland decides to use their hoard of picks on some young offensive talent to surround Carr, then perhaps he can be a solid QB2 next season, but our hopes of him being a top fantasy passer have vanished.
Konami Code = Consistency
Invest now in Josh Allen where you can. When you try to trade for him in keeper/dynasty leagues, start by showing Allen’s current owner my consistency score chart where Allen ranks 31st, and hope that they don’t bother to notice that Allen has averaged 20.96 fantasy points since Week 12. His consistency score since returning from injury is an impressive 8.90, which is almost twice as good as his season-long score. Allen is a young, athletic, rushing quarterback, and that can easily translate to fantasy production. After this season might be the most affordable he will be for a while.
The Dolphins need to move on from Ryan Tannehill. That is all.